All posts by Margo Kingston

Do you believe John Howard?

Why is the government being so nice to Andrew Wilkie? One theory floated in the weekend papers is that it’s trying to avoid a damaging leak. That makes sense – a few days before Wilkie’s resignation, I published an article from ‘Jane’s Defence Weekly’ which discussed widespread unease in intelligence circles about the rationale for war (Tony Blair: The whole world’s in his hands), and a steady stream of leaks from intelligence and foreign affairs sources in Britain and the US attests to the unease.

But the obvious reason for the kid gloves is that murmuring sweet nothings about Wilkie’s right to speak hides the fact that the Government is not actually engaging with what he’s saying, let alone confronting his key claim – that the Office of National Assessments (ONA) does NOT assess that without war Saddam is likely to give WMDs to terrorists, and assesses that AN INVASION is likely to have that effect. That claim leads to Wilkie’s conclusion – that our decision to go to war has nothing whatsoever to do with Saddam’s WMDs, ie that the government is lying to the Australian people.

I analysed Howard’s answers to questions after his Thursday address to the nation in Deconstructing JW Howard. Fran Kelly asked:

You said today that this judgement, Australia’s judgement, reflects the intelligence community’s professional assessment. Well, in recent days we’ve had an ONA officer quit his post, saying that ONA had given the Government advice that the more Saddam Hussein is pushed, the greater the chance of him using his weapons of mass destruction or linking up with terrorists. Will you release the ONA reports on Iraq, just as you released the ONA report on the children overboard, here in the National Press Club address 16 months ago?

Howard replied:

Well that particular ONA report, as you know Fran, in relation that I mentioned 16 months ago, merely repeated press reports. I’m not going to release ONA assessments which, almost of all of which remain classified. What I said to you today represented their general view. As far as Mr Wilkie is concerned, I respect his right to have another view. It’s not surprising in a large public service and a reasonably large intelligence community, that you’re going to have a range of views. In the end, all of these things involve questions of judgement…

Get it? Wilkie has a right to another view, end of story. But Wilkie did not say it was HIS view, he said it was ONA’s ASSESSMENT. Howard oh-so-gently gently asserts the opposite but runs a mile from proving it.

There’s something else Howard won’t release either – the government’s legal advice to back his claim that a non UN sanctioned invasion of Iraq would not breach international law. Thus Howard refuses to prove the two claims which are essential to making the case for war to the Australian people.

Trust him? Howard has form. On Thursday, he admitted to misleading the Australian people just before the 2001 election by claiming an independent ONA assessment – which he read out – backed his claims that children were thrown overboard. The admission served to bat away Fran’s request that he release the ONA assessment backing his claim that ONA believed Saddam was likely to give his WMDs to terrorists unless we invaded Iraq. ONA assessments were not made public, he said – the children overboard ONA assessment was OK to releasesbecause it merely summarised media reports.

There is another recent example of Howard misleading the Australian people to serve his political interests. Just after we heard of the sinking of SIEV-X and the deaths by drowning of hundreds of asylum seekers, Howard closed down debate on Australia’s responsibility by stating categorically and repeatedly that SIEV-X sank in Indonesian waters. Despite documents gradually forced out of the bureaucracy which all said the opposite – that SIEV-X likely sank in international waters – he refused point blank to produce the advice he said he relied on. The actual advice that went to him at the time recently surfaced – it too confirmed the documentary trail of advice contradicting Howard’s claim.

To me, Howard’s address to the nation made it crystal clear that his stated reasons for joining the war are false. I believe he has made the judgement that because the United States is on the rampage, and will continue to be so, the world will become a more dangerous, unstable place, and that the best spot for Australia amid the turmoil is under America’s skirts. It’s that simple. He really is a puppet, by choice.

Tomorrow negotiations will begin in Australia on a free trade agreement between Australia and the United States, the one the Yanks got excited about last year after Howard said yes to its plans to invade Iraq, and the one Howard made a point of pressing when he met Bush recently.

Howard wants us so tied to the United States militarily and economically that the US would feel compelled to defend us if our security was threatened. Backing the US in its adventure, of course, adds to the risks we face. He must have judged that the balance of risks favours us going with the United States anyway.

The Australian’s Paul Kelly said this of Howard’s position on Saturday:

First, Australia is going to war because of the US alliance, not because Iraq represents a direct threat to Australia. Second, the Australian public, like much of the world, does not accept his argument that the risks of doing nothing outweigh the risks of war.

… Most of the global community disagrees with Howard about the risk. Howard argues, in effect, it is so great that Australia must play a high profile role with the US, if necessary outside the Security Council, to attack Iraq pre-emptively at the possible cost of breaching the Western alliance, marginalising the UN, risking Hussein’s use of his weapons and fanning the hostility of the Islamic world.

… He has failed to mount a persuasive argument that a war to disarm Iraq is an imperative now when the risks are so vast and the national interest could be prejudiced.

I’d add only that Howard hasn’t even bothered to admit the risks Paul mentioned to the public, let alone assess their weight. He’s treated the Australian people like fools. No wonder so many of us are so anxious. He’s left Australians to try to make sense of what’s happening without his guidance.

Oh well. War it is. And what a war it could be. Scott Burchill sent me a couple of recent articles on the mess Northern Iraq could quickly become once the invasion begins, on the new “pre-emptive strike principle” America would just have created the precedent for.

In Kurd-Turk rivalry threatens US plans for Iraq, The Christian Science Monitor’s Ilene R. Prusher writes:

If war begins in Iraq, it could look like this: Turkey’s troops move into autonomous Kurdish areas in northern Iraq; Kurds view it as an act of war and open fire.

It could also look like this: Kurds move on the oil-rich Iraqi cities of Kirkuk and Mosul; Turkey views the advance as a casus belli and launches an attack to prevent the cities from falling into Kurdish hands.

In either scenario, two of Washington’s key allies could wind up fighting each other instead of the forces of Saddam Hussein – not exactly what the US had in mind when it drew up plans for regime change in Iraq.

She says the US envoy has warned Turkey that if the deal to let Turkish troops follow the Yanks did not proceed because Turkey didn’t allow the US to use its territory as a base for attack, the Turks should stay out. His warning prompted this rejoinder:

“He said the Turkish military cannot enter Iraq, as if he can dictate to Turkey what Turkey can do,” says Egemen Bagis, Mr. Erdogan’s foreign policy adviser. “If the US feels they need to come 10,000 miles away to Iraq to protect their citizens from another Sept. 11,” he asks, “isn’t it right that Turkey, which is right on Iraq’s border and a longstanding ally hosting US forces, should be concerned? If Saddam is armed [with] weapons of mass destruction, Turkey has a right to be in Iraq.”

Pre-emptive strike time for Turkey, too, although not under US auspices. Oh dear. Yesterday, the Washington Post reported that the US had given up on Turkey and was re-routing its ships accordingly:

As a result, the U.S. diplomatic effort in Ankara has shifted to ensuring that Turkey keeps its troops out of Iraq…

Over the vocal objections of Iraqi Kurds, the administration had agreed to let Turkish troops follow U.S. forces into northern Iraq and take up positions about 121/2 miles past the border to help prevent a flow of refugees and maintain security and stability. But Khalilzad told the Turkish government that the agreement was void because Turkey had not approved the U.S. deployment.

“The situation now is that it’s all off,” the official said. “We don’t have an agreement, and we don’t want them to go in unilaterally. The mission now is to discourage and deter them from going in, and to reach an understanding with them on legitimate issues of concern.”

The paper also reported yesterday:

Kurdish militia leaders in northern Iraq have begun intense preparations for participating in a war against President Saddam Hussein’s government despite repeated pledges to heed U.S. appeals to stay out of the way…

Turkey fears that a prominent Kurdish role would lead to a permanently autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq, possibly reawakening similar aspirations among Turkey’s own Kurdish minority. To avoid that, Turkish officials in Ankara have said Turkish troops will occupy part of Iraq’s Kurdish zone, ostensibly to prevent a flow of refugees into Turkey.

Turkey has also threatened to march on Kirkuk and the rich oil fields that surround it if the Kurds try to take it for themselves. Against that background, the Bush administration has put Kirkuk off limits to a direct assault by Kurdish militiamen, called the pesh merga, meaning “those who face death.”

But a senior Kurdish official said the civilian Kurdish underground, composed mainly of residents with hidden arms, is preparing to seize control of some Kirkuk neighborhoods and attack the city’s defensive perimeter from the rear when U.S. troops draw near. “It’s not just us,” he said, predicting that Iraqi Arabs and members of Iraq’s Turkmen minority also will rise up against Hussein’s government. “Be sure, there will be Arabs helping us, Turkmen who are helping us. All the people inside will take the city.” The plan is rarely talked about, he explained, because “we don’t want to embarrass the Americans.”

***

Today, some final thoughts by you before the war. I’ve just published John Wojdylo’s latest piece on the people’s instinct, Loving the farthest, and Polly Bush’s first piece on the war, There’s daggers in men’s smiles. I’ve also published the Press Council judgement upholding the complaint against The Daily Telegraph’s coverage of last year’s civil disobedience forum in NSW Parliament at the bottom of Press Council to reader: We’ll choose your friends then close the door.

***

Recommendations

I got a shock last night while watching the news when George Bush put out his roadmap for peace between Israel and the Palestinians. You’ll remember I floated the idea of a UN sanction for war in return for a binding commitment from the US to get peace in the really big war in the Middle East on February 28, in Incompatible values. This was in response to Bush’s big speech on democracy in the Middle-East and his personal commitment to a Palestinian state. In the last few days I’ve been sent quite a few US articles focusing on the fact that many leading neo-cons are Jewish, a ticklish topic, to say the least. Yesterday John Bennettsent me a piece by Republican Christian fundamentalist Pat Buchanan in the latest issue of The American Conservative magazine, Whose War?. Buchanan makes the incendiary claim that certain Jewish powerbrokers in the neo-con club are more loyal to Israel than America. The puff reads: “A neoconservative clique seeks to ensnare our country in a series of wars that are not in America’s interest.” Amid the mess the world’s in, the last thing anyone needs is an upsurge in anti-Semitism, especially, from Bush’s perspective, from the Republican fundamentalist moral majority so supportive of his presidency. I wonder if that’s part of the reason for Bush’s move yesterday, to dispel the perception in parts of his core constituency that he’s captive to a Zionist cabal.

Unlrich Adami: “If you want to see the real agenda of this war, read George Monbiot’s A wilful blindness. An extract:

Last year, the Sunday Herald obtained a copy of a confidential report produced by the (New American Century) Project in September 2000, which suggested that blatting Saddam was the beginning, not the end of its strategy. “While the unresolved conflict with Iraq provides the immediate justification, the need for a substantial American force presence in the Gulf transcends the issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein.” (Rebuilding America’s Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century)

The wider strategic aim, it insisted, was “maintaining global US pre-eminence”. Another document obtained by the Herald, written by Paul Wolfowitz and Lewis Libby, called upon the United States to “discourage advanced industrial nations from challenging our leadership or even aspiring to a larger regional or global role”.

On taking power, the Bush administration was careful not to alarm its allies. The new president spoke only of the need “to project our strength with purpose and with humility” and “to find new ways to keep the peace”. From his first week in office, however, he began to engage not so much in nation-building as in planet-building.

The ostensible purpose of Bush’s missile defence programme is to shoot down incoming nuclear missiles. The real purpose is to provide a justification for the extraordinarily ambitious plans – contained in a Pentagon document entitled Vision for 2020 – to turn space into a new theatre of war, developing orbiting weapons systems which can instantly destroy any target anywhere on earth11. By creating the impression that his programme is merely defensive, Bush could justify a terrifying new means of acquiring what he calls “full spectrum dominance” over planetary security.

Immediately after the attack on New York, the US government began establishing “forward bases” in Asia. As the assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones noted, “when the Afghan conflict is over we will not leave Central Asia. We have long-term plans and interests in this region”12. The US now has bases in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan and Georgia. Their presence has, in effect, destroyed the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which Russia and China had established in an attempt to develop a regional alternative to US power.

In January, the US moved into Djibouti, ostensibly to widen its war against terror, while accidentally gaining strategic control over the Bab Al Mandab – one of the world’s two most important oil shipping lanes. It already controls the other one, the Strait of Hormuz. Two weeks ago, under the same pretext, it sent 3000 men to the Philippines. Last year it began negotiations to establish a military base in Sao Tome and Principe, from which it can, if it chooses, dominate West Africa’s principal oilfields. By pure good fortune, the US government now exercises strategic control over almost all the world’s major oil producing regions and oil transport corridors.

It has also used its national tragedy as an excuse for developing new nuclear and biological weapons13, while ripping up the global treaties designed to contain them. All this is just as the Project prescribed. Among other enlightened policies, it has called for the development of a new generation of biological agents, which will attack people with particular genetic characteristics14.

Why do the supporters of this war find it so hard to see what is happening? Why do the conservatives who go beserk when the European Union tries to change the content of our chocolate bars look the other way when the US seeks to reduce us to a vassal state? Why do the liberal interventionists who fear that Saddam Hussein might one day deploy a weapon of mass destruction refuse to see that George Bush is threatening to do just this against an ever-growing number of states? Is it because they cannot face the scale of the threat, and the scale of the resistance necessary to confront it? Is it because these brave troopers cannot look the real terror in the eye?

Lloyd Mcdonald: “This piece, by musician Brian Eno, is in the European edition of Time but apparently not fit for its intended audience so it’s missing from the US edition. The US needs to open up to the world

Damian Joyce recommends Lunch with the chairman in The New Yorker, a piece on how prominent neo-con Richard Perle is not only on a government advisory panel telling the government to wage war on Iraq, but has a stake in a company seeking to profit from homeland security contracts. Apparently it’s the done thing in America.

A reader advises of a new campaign to stop the war, from the culture jammers network Abusters:

Dear Jammers,

In spite of opposition from the world – proven in poll after poll – > Bush’s oil-thirsty war machine marches on. Feeling frustrated? It’s time to take a new stand and hit Rogue Nation USA exactly where it counts – right in the economy. It’s time to Boycott Brand America. Are you ready? The Boycott Brand America pledge is already up at adbusters – check in to sign it, find out more, and help circulate the pledge. Let’s build this boycott into an international mass action on par with the peace marches!

Ever since the Tampa transformed Australian politics, someone has sent me the “Marine Digital maritime newsletter’. In the latest issue:

“Shipping Industry Anxious About War Premiums: South Korean shipping companies and exporters are locked in a growing concern over the issue of war premiums charged for vessels operating along the Middle East routes. According to the Korea Shipowners Association, the war premiums are expected to increase by at least 200 percent from the usual rate of 0.01 percent, if a war between the U.S. and Iraq breaks out in the region.”

***

Jonathan Toze in Canberra (this is Jonathan’s debut on Webdiary)

Death of the Liberal Party

A bit of an extreme declaration perhaps, but one that I have been watching develop with increasing dismay over the last few years. Not a sign of dissent has appeared as the rules of standard political party behaviour in a Westminster system have been torn up and discarded.

This War is the most important and divisive issue to have hit the political and social landscape since, I would argue, 1975. While Tampa split the body politic, it fell in Howard’s favour. But with Howards current behaviour, this is not the case, and it confirms what I have been suspecting for quite some time. Australia now is run by an Autocracy: There is no divergence of opinion from within the leading political party, where it seems only those who think and feel like John Howard are given the leading roles.

It is impossible to believe that there is only one faction within the Liberal Party, that there is on such an important issue no divergent belief or value on the issues of violation of International Law, or the subjugation of Australian Democracy to blind personal allegiance to the American Neo -Conservative Agenda,

The state the parliamentary Liberal Party finds itself in is one of grave concern, and displays tremendous weakness. With Shane Stone in place it is not likely to be seen to or even recognised, but the corruption of the party from within could well spell a long term problem for not only the Liberal Party, but Australia as a whole as long as the Libs are in power.

One can only hope for Australia’s sake that those within who are opposed to Howard are capable of showing some spine?

Margo: I know of two Coalition politicians who have broken ranks, both because of the core demands of their constituencies. Federal Liberal MP Peter Lindsay, who holds the marginal north Queensland seat of Herbert, has spoken against the war more than once in the party room. His electorate includes defence barracks and many defence force families, and he would kiss his seat goodbye if he did not publicly oppose the war. This sort of thing is tolerated in both parties – on the Labor side in Government, MPs in seats where voters are affected by aircraft noise were given the nod to speak out publicly against the third runway. Don Page, the National Party member for the NSW state seat of Ballina on the north coast, told his voters recently – at a meeting and then through the local paper – that he opposed a war without UN sanction. Page is a seat where anti-war feeling runs high, and Page is in danger of losing his seat. Can anyone add to this tiny list of dissenters?

Gina Bowry

I am beyond hearing any more arguments pro or anti war. It has all been said. If you are pro war, let’s go in there and get the job done. If you are anti war, there are still options.

This is a war of brinkmanship. Will there actually even be a war? The USA has stationed troops around Iraq as a means of pressuring them into some form of disarmament or compliance. This has to some degree worked, even though each step “forward” is still derided by the US administration.

It has come time for GW Bush to step up to his line in the sand. He, however, has just seemed to move it again. Will there or will there not be war on Tuesday?

Saddam Hussein will not remove himself from power. The US has put itself in the invidious position of either being seen to start a war, for no clear reason, or of putting its military might and world power at risk and then stepping back without following through, after only minor resistance.

The big question for me is, will the US actually risk war with world opinion against it? Do they really want it in the first place, or were they only hoping for quick compliance (and to what end?)

That Iraq is obviously destroying some weapons is interesting. To me, it indicates that there is some anticipation that compliance will reduce or remove the chance of war. Yet each step they take is followed by an announcement from Mr Rumsfeld that says they are doing too little too late.

Iraq is actively destroying weapons which are it’s most obvious means of attack (or defence), in an attempt to be seen as complying to the UN resolution, at least in part. This is different to the Russians agreeing to destroy hundreds of obsolete nuclear warheads. This is a nation which is destroying what I can only see as part of it’s national defence assets only weeks before what could be a war for regime change in Iraq. Why would any ruler of such a country agree to destroy a weapon which could be used defensively if it truly thought it would be invaded, with or without those weapons’ capability?

Saddam seems to assume that there will be a limit to the aggressive rhetoric of the US, and they will at some point, not too far removed, come to the table and let Saddam continue to rule.

Are the American’s waiting for a pre-emptive strike on their own forces to justify an attack? How else can they force world opinion to swing enough their way to endorse their latest resolution?

If this war is just and necessary, can Bush and his allies keep letting the tide of public and world opinion wash back his line in the sand? They cannot keep letting this rogue state dictate its own terms for survival. They must invade unless there is total compliance, and soon, and accept the cost of adverse world opinion for the benefit of the world. Otherwise, it’s just a bluff.

***

Chris Andrews

Disclosure: My partner is currently one of those pre deployed to the gulf in OP Bastille.

I am writing in reference to some of the dribble I have been reading in the comment pages and Webdiaries. Honestly people, we are talking about a man (Saddam) who has no regard or respect for the value of human life. He is a vicious killer, someone who under Australian laws would never see the light of day again.

Yet you defend him so that he may go and kill yet another human being in cold blooded murder. He still uses torture, yet you defend him. Since he came to power he has declared war with 2 countries, yet you defend him. He is willing to use his own people to protect his palaces and military installations, yet you defend him.

For Christ sake, he ordered the so called human shields from all around the world to guard his palaces, not his hospitals. This is a man who will put a Surface to Air missile Launcher on the roof of a hospital so when the coalition blow it up protecting themselves he instantly jumps up and down saying we’re murdering innocent civilians.

Why should we have to prove that this man no longer has weapons of mass destruction, should he not be the one trying to prove it instead? He has defied the world for 12 long years – can someone honestly say when enough is enough. Saddam is a lying, deceitful, evil man.

Making speeches may not be the PM’s strong point, but at least someone in this damn country has some back bone to stand up for human rights. Let’s end this now. Saddam could end this now, but he chooses not to. In the couple of months the UN weapons inspectors have been back in the country how many times they have caught him out lying already, and yet you defend him and what’s worse, you damn believe him.

Open your eyes people, the PM can not just come out and tell you all the intelligence they have. If he did he would signing the death certificate of our own men and women, What is the first thing everyone did when September 11 and the Bali bombing occurred? They immediately asked why did we not know about it and if we did then why did we not do anything to prevent it.

Well ladies and gentlemen, we know Saddam has WMD and we know he has links to extremist groups. Do you really want someone to drop a biochemical bomb on someone before we do anything?

I sure as hell don’t. Instead of fighting amongst ourselves and providing Sadam with encouragement let’s stand united and when he sees he has no choice only then will diplomacy have a chance.

***

Shawn in Arkansas( The home of Bill)

Let’s have a little bit of a fact finding mission here. I live in America, my father fought the second world war, I married an Australian, we met in London. To the best of my judgement, these were the freedoms my father fought for. I could travel, I could meet someone, they could meet me. The world wasn’t a bad place, was it? Look at it from an American point of view, as much as you hate to!

What are you angry about? What do you dislike? I’ll tell you what you dislike. You dislike that we’re right. And we’re right about many things. Do you remember Chamberlain? Do you remember appeasement? Do you remember Hitler? Do you remember Mussolini? Do you remember Stalin?

Do you remember YOUR GRANDFATHER? Did you think he was a fool? Did you think he was ignorant? Do you remember WW1/ WW2?

THEN, If you remember these things, and you have a knowledge of history, you know that bad men, do bad things, and it takes a greater power, a greater sense of self, to stand, to unite and to fight for what is right.

If you’re not with us, you’re against us. This isn’t a Bush “redneckism”, this a “truthism”.

Finally find the courage within your self to not feel inferior, to stand up against tyranny in the face of evil. And see it as it is – a threat to the Western World, Capitalism, Australia, America , Great Britain.

***

‘Poindexter’

I am staggered by the superficial reportage of John Howard’s latest address. To state the blinding obvious, the PM fully expected to be delivering a Churchillian/Menzies speech with the war already underway. Hence the switch to the ” Great Hall ” – forget the red herring of security – this was about gravitas. He could hardly announce we were in a shooting war from the rooms of the Telstra Press Club.

Unfortunately for JWH, things were delayed – those nasty ” spoilers ” held up the invasion schedule – HENCE, Mango, the PM delivered a re-hash, re-gurgitation word for word of the speech every Liberal MP has been forced to give in the recent Parliaments ” debates “. Check the Hansard – nothing new, nothing that had not already been chanted/shrieked across the Lower and Upper Chambers by the sheep already ( talk about a rubber-stamp Parliament!)

This was patently a substitute speech for the war leader address he planned to be delivering until those nasty French ” spoiled ” his game.

Still, only a few more days before his historic address to the nation telling us what I for one have known since last September, that we are in the largest Anglo-American invasion since D-Day 1944 and the ADF is going in boots and all.

It amazes me that journos still, at this late hour, will not wake up and smell the cordite. JWH, who brooks no dissent, made a firm irrevocable decision committing the ADF to war in September 2002.

***

Jackson Manning (nom de plume)

John Howard is such a coward he has refused to answer essential questions about this war by pretending he didn’t commit to war on Iraq months ago. Even at three minutes to midnight on the war clock he refuses to fess up and give the Australian people the answers they deserve. He has offered no proof, no justification, just month-after-month of rehashed Bushisms.

Such serious breaches of democratic trust should surely prove electorally unforgivable – though one must never underestimate the ALP’s capacity to let its timidity and short-sightedness ensure it snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.

Soon the clock will strike twelve, the war will begin, and in all likelihood it will be over in weeks, days, possibly even hours if Saddam’s people rebel. That much of the Bush administration’s gamble is probably correct.

Immediately afterward, the Government’s formidable Op-Ed and talkback cheer-squad – the Joneses, Ackermans, Bolts, Sheridans and Devines – will surely gloat about the spectacular success of the stars and stripes and urge us all to forget the ‘discredited’ UN and put our faith in the brand new reich – the one financed by corporate crooks and run by unelected zealots like Paul Wolfowitz, Donald Rumsfeld and Richard Perle.

But at that stage – just weeks away – it will pay for us to remember that the long-term consequences of this adventure are yet to unfold. In the longer run the blowback from this folly could well claim the lives of many more Australian kids than Iraqi – though none should be considered more important than the other.

Presuming it would even work – and the jury’s still out – even a Missile Defence Shield won’t protect the schoolkids of, say, Sydney from a smallpox attack or an atomic transit van.

At the very least our world’s only system of almost-democratic global law, the UN, looks likely to fall victim to the might-is-right mindset that brought us two world wars in the first half of the Twentieth Century and millennia of bastardry before it. Don’t believe the line that the UN will have failed its test; if the UN croaks it will be because the sole superpower and its whitebread colonialist cronies pushed it so hard against a wall it splattered.

It’s hard not to worry about this. The total destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki should have already taught us the old ways must be overcome if the human race is to have any hope of continuing. It should be obvious that war must be a last resort and that global domination is now a redundant wetdream for psychopathic control freaks.

The sixties were no accident of history as the hardcore conservative rump likes to pretend. The ‘revolutions’ of that decade – pacifism, environmentalism, feminism, anti-racism and respect for human diversity – did not emerge from nowhere. Rather, they are essential evolutionary tools for human survival in a post-nuclear age.

As the global mass demonstrations against this war should indicate ‘the people’ themselves are moving on.

But alas, our prime minister is stuck following the patterns of the past – suck-holing up to the dominant power in the hope he can trade not only international law, the UN and the lives of our soldiers but also Medicare, the PBS and our quarantine laws for an anti-free trade agreement (let’s be honest, it’s ‘special’ trade not free trade we’re seeking) with the biggest bastards on the block — the corporate-owned, televangelist-run US Republican Party.

Time is tick, tock, tick, tock, ticking away, Johnny. It’s too late to turn back the clock.

***

Hannah Newman (nom de plume)

I usually make a point of reading Webdiary everyday but haven’t had the chance to get my daily fix of late. And then bam! I hop on today, after a two week absence, and read John Wojdylo’s attack on Jack Robertson (Against Human Rights in Iraq). Before I know it I feel my blood pressure rising – as it usually does after reading one of John’s hysterical, self-righteous columns. While I applaud your commitment to giving all sides of the war argument a fair go, I have decided that despite being usually tempted by John’s provocative and needling articles, I am boycotting the chunks of (cyber) space you give him in Webdiary for my own sanity and health.

Don’t get me wrong, I do want to read alternative viewpoints. I actually want to be convinced that somehow as we edge closer and closer to war, that there are compelling reasons to do so. I want to be convinced that a blanket bombing of Iraq and its aftermath will deliver liberation to its people. I want to be assured that all alternative avenues have been determined and tried. To this end however, John does the pro-war lobby a great disservice since all he does is try to shame those against war by calling them anti-human rights.

It’s a sick and troubled world we live in when a call for no war is seen as anti-human rights. Although, it just goes to show the perverted means the pro-war right will go to, to drum up support for their war. Yes, call those who want peace evil and against Iraqi democracy so you can all sleep better at night as the bombs fall half a world away.

I guess the truly good thing to come from all this debate so far is that despite having to ride on the back of oil and WMD, the plight of the Iraqi people is finally getting the international attention it deserves and countries like Australia will think twice before sending out our navy vessels to turn back desperate Iraqi refugees.

***

Peter Woodforde in Melba, ACT

Today, Sunday 16 March 2003, was the 35th anniversary of Operation Muscatine, north-east of Quang Ngai City, which, according to a hearty message of congratulation from William C Westmoreland, Commander US Forces: “Dealt enemy heavy blow. Congratulations to officers and men of C-1-20 [Charlie Company, 1st Battalion, 20th Infantry] for outstanding action.”

We should remember the families of Song My (My Lai), from babies to great-grandmas, butchered like sheep in a supposedly successful and praiseworthy military action.

But this is not a time for recrimination against the United States, a country of great institutions and great people, set, like our own, amidst great flaws.

We should also remember the courage and sacrifice of a small group of young American servicemen who put their lives on the line that day to save a small number of the massacre survivors, and who met years of danger, harm and ridicule during the despotic and bloodthirsty Nixon-Kissinger era to expose the evil.

And we should try to remember all the words of Matthew 5:3-12, surely never heard at Dubya and Condoleeza’s bloody awful prayer breakfasts:

Blessed are the poor in spirit: for theirs is the kingdom of heaven. Blessed are they that mourn: for they shall be comforted. Blessed are the meek: for they shall inherit the earth. Blessed are they which do hunger and thirst after righteousness: for they shall be filled. Blessed are the merciful: for they shall obtain mercy. Blessed are the pure in heart: for they shall see God. Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God. Blessed are they which are persecuted for righteousness’ sake: for theirs is the kingdom of heaven. Blessed are ye, when men shall revile you, and persecute you, and shall say all manner of evil against you falsely, for my sake.

***

Edna Ross forwards this report from the frontline.

Letter from Iraq -an American photojournalist’s letter home

Some of you have written to me with concerns for my safety in Iraq, but this was easily one of the safest assignments I have taken. In all my time in Iraq, in spite of an intense awareness of the threat of an impending attack by the United States, I haven’t met a single Iraqi who had a harsh word for me. Iraqis are very good at distinguishing between the U.S. government and a U.S. citizen.

It seems to me that as a photojournalist, Iraq is where I might best play a role in making a small difference. I’ve done some work in Iraq for Newsweek and Time magazines but that kind of work has really become secondary for me. I do what I can to influence (in admittedly small ways) what kinds of stories those big magazines do, but ultimately their stories are nearly worthless at confronting the inhumanity of American foreign policy in the Middle East. I will continue to work with Time and Newsweek (and with other corporate media) on stories that I don’t find offensive, but the bulk of my efforts are now going into reaching alternative media and in supporting anti-war groups in the states. I hope I can find some time soon to come to the states for a speaking tour of sorts.

There’s a lot of talk about whether or not the U.S. will go to war with Iraq. What many people don’t realize is that the U.S. is already at war in Iraq. I made two trips last month into the “no-fly zone” created by the U.S. with Britain and France in southern Iraq. Actually it would be better named the “only we fly” zone or the “we bomb” zone. “We” refers to the United States who does almost all of the flying and bombing (France pulled out years ago, and Britain is largely a nominal participant). There is another no-fly zone in the north, which the U.S. says it maintains to protect the Kurds, but while the U.S. prevents Iraqi aircraft from entering the region, it does nothing to prevent or even to criticize Turkey (a U.S. ally) from flying into northern Iraq on numerous occasions to bomb Kurdish communities there.

Turkey’s bombing in Iraq is dwarfed by that of the U.S. The U.S. has been bombing Iraq on a weekly and sometimes daily basis for the past 12 years. There were seven civilians killed in these bombings about two weeks ago, and I’m told more civilians last week, but I’m sure that didn’t get much or perhaps any press in the U.S. It is estimated that U.S. bombing has killed 500 Iraqis just since 1999.

Actually I believe that number to be higher if you take into account the effects of the massive use of depleted uranium (DU) in the bombing. The U.S. has dropped well in excess of 300 tons of this radioactive material in Iraq (30 times the amount dropped in Kosovo) since 1991. Some of the DU is further contaminated with other radioactive particles including Neptunium and Plutonium 239, perhaps the most carcinogenic of all radioactive materials, and these particles are now beginning to show up in ground water samples.

I spent a lot of time in overcrowded cancer wards in Iraqi hospitals. Since U.S. bombing began in Iraq, cancer rates have increased nearly six fold in the south, where U.S. bombing and consequent levels of DU are most severe.

The most pronounced increases are in leukaemia and lung, kidney, and thyroid cancers associated with poisoning by heavy metals (such as DU).

But the most lethal weapon in Iraq is the intense sanctions regime. The toll of the sanctions is one of the most under-reported stories of the past decade in the U.S. press. I have seen a few references to the sanctions recently in the U.S. press, but invariably they will subtly discredit humanitarian concerns by relying on Iraqi government statements rather than on the statistics of international agencies.

My careless colleague at Time magazine, for example, recently reported that “the Iraqi government blames the sanctions for the deaths of thousands of children under the age of five”. That’s simply not true. The Iraqi government, in fact, blames the sanctions for the deaths of *more than a million* children under the age of five.

But let’s put that figure aside, for there’s no need to rely solely on the Iraqi government, and let’s refer instead to UNICEF and WHO reports which blame the sanctions directly for the excess deaths of approximately 500,000 children under the age of five, and nearly a million Iraqis of all ages.

We all have an idea of the grief borne by the United States after the September 11 attacks. Employing the crude mathematics of casualty figures, multiply that grief by 300 and place it on the hearts of a country with one tenth the population of the United States and perhaps we can get a crude idea of what kind of suffering has already been inflicted on the Iraqi people in the past decade.

The greatest killer of young children in Iraq is dehydration from diarrhea caused by water-borne illnesses which are amplified by the intentional destruction of water treatment and sanitation facilities by the United States. The U.S. plan for destroying water treatment facilities and suppressing their rehabilitation was outlined just before the American entry into the 1991 Gulf War. The January, 1991, Dept. of Defense document, “Iraq Water Treatment Vulnerabilities,” goes into great detail about how the destruction of water treatment facilities and their subsequent impairment by the sanctions regime will lead to increased incidences, if not epidemics, of disease.” I can report from my time in Iraq that all is going to plan.

Cholera, hepatitis, and typhoid (previously almost unheard of in Iraq) are now quite common. Malaria and, of course, dysentery are rampant, and immunities to all types of disease are extremely low. Even those lucky children who manage to get a sufficient daily caloric intake risk losing it all to diarrhoea. Around 4,000 children die every month from starvation and preventable disease in Iraq – a six-fold increase since pre-sanctions measurements.

Treatment of illnesses in Iraq is complicated by the inability of hospitals to get the drugs they need through the wall of sanctions. In a hospital in Baghdad I encountered a mother with a very sick one-year-old child. After the boy’s circumcision ceremony, the child was found to have a congenital disease which inhibits his blood’s ability to clot, which results in excessive bleeding. The child encountered further complications when he took a fall and sustained a head injury which was slowly drowning his brain in his own blood. In any other country the boy would simply take regular doses of a drug called Factor 8, and he could then lead a relatively normal life. But an order for Factor 8 was put on hold by the United States (prohibited for import), so the doctor, the mother, and I could only watch the child die.

Much is made of Iraq’s alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction, but it is the sanctions, the use of depleted uranium, and the destruction of Iraq’s health and sanitation infrastructure that are the weapons of greatest mass destruction in Iraq.

The situation is so bad that Dennis Halliday, the former Humanitarian Coordinator for the UN in Iraq, took the dramatic step of resigning his position in protest at the sanctions. “We are in the process of destroying an entire society”, Halliday wrote. “It is as simple and terrifying as that.” “It is illegal and immoral.” And Halliday isn’t alone. His successor, Hans Von Sponeck, also resigned in protest and went so far as to describe the sanctions as genocide. These are not left-wing radicals. These are career bureaucrats who chose to throw away their careers at the UN rather than give tacit support to unethical policies driven by the United States.

Being in Iraq showed me the utter devastation U.S. policy (war and sanctions) has wrought there and has given me a vision of what horror a new war would bring. And, of course, an attack on Iraq would be just the beginning of a terrifying chain of reactions throughout the Middle East and the rest of the world. Having worked in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Israel and Palestine in the past year, I am intensely aware of how the fragile politics and powers outside Iraq can be dramatically unsettled by a U.S. Invasion within Iraq.

It’s easy to imagine an impending tragedy of enormous proportion before us, and I ask myself who must step up and take responsibility for stopping it. Clearly the U.S. government is the most powerful actor, but it is equally clear that we cannot turn aside and realistically expect the U.S. government to suddenly reverse the momentum it has created for war. So I feel the weight of responsibility on me, on U.S. citizens, to do whatever we can with our individually small but collectively powerful means to change the course of our government’s policy. I try to picture myself 10 or 20 years in the future, and I don’t want to be in the position where I reflect on the enormous tragedies of the beginning of the 21st century and admit that I did nothing at all to recognize or prevent them.

I don’t know how this letter will sound to my friends and family who are living in the U.S., in a media environment which does very little to effectively question U.S. policy and almost nothing to encourage ordinary people to participate in making a change. I imagine this letter may sound like the political rant of some kind of extremist or anti-American dissident. But that’s not how it feels to me. This doesn’t feel like a political issue to me so much as it feels like a personal issue. I am appalled on a very human level at the suffering which U.S. policy is already inflicting and I am terrified by the prospects for an even more chaotic and violent future.

And let’s be honest about U.S. policy aims. Those in the U.S. government pushing for war say they are doing so to promote democracy, to protect the rights of minorities, and to rid the region of weapons of mass destruction.

But is the U.S. threatening to attack Saudi Arabia or a host of other U.S. allies which have similarly un-democratic regimes? How many of us would advocate going to war with Turkey over the brutal repression of its Kurdish minority and of the Kurds in Iraq? And do we expect the U.S. to bomb Israel or Pakistan which each have hundreds of nuclear weapons? Let’s remember that leaders in the previous weapons inspection team in Iraq had declared that 95% of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction capabilities were destroyed. And let’s not forget that in the 1980s, when Iraq was actually using chemical weapons against the Kurds and the Iranian army, the U.S. had nothing to say about it. On the contrary, at that time President Reagan sent a U.S. envoy to Iraq to normalize diplomatic relations, to support its war with Iran, and to offer subsidies for preferential trade with Iraq. That envoy arrived in Baghdad on the very day that the UN confirmed Iraq’s use of chemical weapons, and he said absolutely nothing about it. That envoy, by the way, was Donald Rumsfeld.

While Iraq probably has very little weaponry to actually threaten the United States, they do have oil. According to a recent survey of the West Qurna and Majnoon oil fields in southern Iraq, they may even have the world’s largest oil reserves, surpassing those of Saudi Arabia. Let’s be honest about U.S. policy aims and ask ourselves if we can, in good conscience, support continued destruction of Iraq in order to control its oil.

I believe that most Americans – Republicans, Democrats, Greens, Purples or whatever – would be similarly horrified by the effects of sanctions on the civilian population of Iraq if they could simply see the place, as I have, up close in its human dimensions; if they could see Iraq as a nation of 22 million mothers, sons, daughters, teachers, doctors, mechanics, and window washers, and not simply as a single cartoonish villain.

I genuinely believe that my view of Iraq is a view that would sit comfortably in mainstream America if most Americans could see Iraq with their own eyes and not simply through the eyes of a media establishment which has simply gotten used to ignoring the death and destruction which perpetuates American foreign policy aims. While the American media fixates on the evils of the “repressive regime” of Saddam Hussein, both real and wildly exaggerated, how often are we reminded of the horrors of the last Gulf War, when more than 150,000 were killed (former U.S. Navy Secretary, John Lehman, estimated 200,000). I simply don’t believe that most Americans could come face-to-face with the Iraqi people and say from their hearts that they deserve another war.

I believe in the fundamental values of democracy – the protection of the most powerless among us from the whims of the most powerful. I believe in the ideals of the United Nations as a forum for solving international conflicts non-violently. These are mainstream values, and they are exactly the values that are most imperilled by present U.S. policy. That’s why, as a citizen of the United States and as a member of humanity, I can’t rest easily so long as I think there is something, anything, that I can do to make a difference.

(The family asked for the author’s name to be suppressed.)

Deconstructing JW Howard

Hi. John Howard’s question and answer session after yesterday’s speech to the nation was devastating for the Prime Minister. – and the Australian people. Australians need reassurance – they were treated instead to obfuscation, confiusion, contradiction and lawyer’s games of hide and seek. I agree with our Meeja Watch man Jack Robertson that the press gallery performed well in impossible circumstances:

“After my wild spray at the media’s performance a few days ago (Two letters to the future), I just wanted to say that I thought the Australian Press was pretty impressive today at the National Press Club speech, especially Oakes, Seccombe, Tingle, McGrath, Grant and all those who tried to get specifics from the PM about our ‘reconstruction’ role and the longer-term strategic implications. I recognise what the Press is up against with this man. Thanks for a good attempt. Keep at him.”

The questions were not as tough or broad, overall, as those from the Washington press gallery at Bush’s press conference last week, but there’s good reason for that. Bush was upfront about his intentions, opening up the discussion. John Howard stonewalled on his intentions, despite the fact that it’s obvious from everything he said that we’ll go in with the Yanks no matter what happens at the UN, and cut off further discussion. This meant several questions were taken up with pressing him for an answer, and because he refused to answer most questions anyway, with asking the same question in a different way.

His performance did nothing to alter the impression that he is a lap dog to Bush – a man dancing on the spot until Bush teaches him the next move. It appears that Australia’s interests are simply not being separately addressed.

Bear in mid that this was probably Howard’s last speech to his people before announcing war, his last chance to convert a skeptical public. Maybe he’s diabolically clever – that it’s correct strategically to keep your people in the dark and hope they rush to support you when our troops are in action, because from his performance yesterday he either thinks Australians are stupid, or he doesn’t give a damn what they think.

Here are the key questions and answers, with my comments. For the full transcript, go to pm.

***

Laura Tingle, Australia Financial Review: Prime Minister, your speech today has been a fairly clear enunciation of the principle of pre-emptive strike, and I was just wondering, given how events are unfolding in Iraq, or over Iraq, what is that doctrine likely to imply for the future of the broad western alliance and the UN security system, and where does it suggest Australia goes after Iraq on other rogue states?

John Howard: Well Laura, you’ve chosen to put a particular description on it. I’m not going to adopt your description. I’ve given, I believe, a clear enunciation of why we’re adopting the policy we have. I’ve put it in context. We are living in a different world. The old view of aggression was that an army rolled across a border. The new menace and different menace arrived on the 11th of September. America has a different view, very understandably, and I think the implications of that for other liberal democracies is very real. But I’m not going to adopt yours or anybody else’s language. I choose my own. I’ve explained the reasons. I hope they are clear and compelling.

Comment: Both Mr Howard and Robert Hill have themselves used the description “preemptive strike” to describe the American’s new policy, and have argued that the doctrine constitutes self-defence in the post-September 11 world. Mr Howard has even said he’s prepared to invoke the doctrine to attack a nation in our region if he feared an imminent terrorist attack from its soil. His ‘answer’ to Laura is his way of not answering her question, by focusing on what she thought was an uncontroversial summary of his position as a lead-in to the substantive issue. By doing this, he sought to cover the fact that he would not answer a question on the minds of very many Australians. Both sides of politics have traditionally set great store in the UN as a body helping necessary to guarantee our security as a middle- ranking power. His non-answer is an insult to the Australian people, most of whom do not support an invasion of Iraq without UN sanction.

***

Mark Riley, Sydney Morning Herald: It’s clear from what you have said today that you no longer consider the prospect of this new resolution failing to be hypothetical. You’ve shared with us your view of what France and Germany’s attitudes may be in that circumstance as it relates to the military deployment. I’m wondering if you’ll now be as equally candid as George Bush has been with his people, and Tony Blair with his, and tell the Australian people whether you will send our troops into war without UN approval, or the backing of the Security Council.

John Howard: Mark, I’ll just repeat what I have said before, and the Australian people understand this – a final decision will be taken on that when all the processes at the Security Council are known. I’ve said before, and I’ll repeat it today, we seek the 18th resolution of the Security Council – it’s not the 2nd, it’s the 18th resolution of the Security Council – not because we believe as a matter of international law that it is needed. We believe it would be better politically, strategically and in terms of the united voice of the international community, if you could get another resolution. I take you back to what I said in my speech. I really do believe that if everybody got behind the sort of resolution of which I have spoken, and I acknowledge that the prospects of that now are not great, you would perhaps have a real prospect because if you had 15 nations saying you disarm or were coming after you, and you had the neighbouring Arab states saying look, the game is up, you might just get some change in Baghdad. Now if that doesn’t occur, I think the prospects for a peaceful resolution don’t appear very bright. We are positioned to participate in military action. That is self-evident. But as you will have observed from the remarks made by our men in the field, they clearly have not received any instruction as yet, and that will not be given until the Cabinet has considered the matter in the wake of the issue being resolved one way or the other, or no way, at the United Nations. That has been my position all along. I think it is the only responsible position. You never in the situation in which I am placed, you never pass up by taking a decision before you need to, the capacity to consider last-minute circumstances that may affect the type of decision you take. You never do that.

Comment: Howard, again refusing to admit that he is prepared to go in without UN sanction, is reduced to implying that Blair and Bush have been irresponsible by discussing the possibility of unilateral action with their people.

He refuses to enlighten the Australian people about why it would be “better politically, strategically and in terms of the united voice of the international community if you could get another resolution”. This refusal, of course, also allows him to avoid discussing the political and strategic downsides for Australia of going in without UN sanction. Again, he deliberately keeps the Australia people in the dark on his considered assessment of the issue of most concern to them.

***

Fran Kelly, The 7.30 Report: You said today that this judgement, Australia’s judgement, reflects the intelligence community’s professional assessment. Well, in recent days we’ve had an ONA officer quit his post, saying that ONA had given the Government advice that the more Saddam Hussein is pushed, the greater the chance of him using his weapons of mass destruction or linking up with terrorists. Will you release the ONA reports on Iraq, just as you released the ONA report on the children overboard, here in the National Press Club address 16 months ago?

Howard: Well that particular ONA report, as you know Fran, in relation that I mentioned 16 months ago, merely repeated press reports. I’m not going to release ONA assessments which, almost of all of which remain classified. What I said to you today represented their general view. As far as Mr Wilkie is concerned, I respect his right to have another view. It’s not surprising in a large public service and a reasonably large intelligence community, that you’re going to have a range of views. In the end, all of these things involve questions of judgement.

We’re not talking about proving to the, beyond reasonable doubt, to the satisfaction of a jury at the Central Criminal Court in Darlinghurst, if you’ll excuse my Sydney origins, I mean if you wait for that kind of proof, you know, its virtually Pearl Harbour. You’ve got to make judgements, and judgements are made and I have given you the judgement of the [ONA] and I’ve given you our judgement. I mean, people are saying well, you know, where is the further proof? I mean, what I am saying is you have Iraq with weapons of mass destruction, Iraq’s terrible track record, refusing to disarm, the world in effect buckles at the knees and doesnt disarm Iraq, other rogue states say, well we can do that, North Korea says knew they would give in, North Korea becomes more uncontrollable. The likelihood, as a matter of sheer logic in those circumstances, of terrorist groups getting their hands on weapons of mass destruction has got to be greater. And these are judgement calls. And I can respect the fact that somebody else has a different view. Im not going to denigrate the man because of that. I respect that.

Comment: This is a killer question. If ONA defector Andrew Wilkie is telling the truth, then Howard’s case – that we need to declare war on Iraq to avoid the nightmare of Saddam giving WMDs to terrorists – is back to front. War would produce the very nightmare Howard says he’s trying to avoid.

ONA assessments are not released to the public, but Howard made an exception to that rule under enormous pressure over the truth of his election campaign claim that asylum seekers threw their children overboard. Roll back to the last Thursday of the 2001 election campaign, when Howard was at the Press Club the day after The Australian published a page one report that it never happened. His staff then trawled for documents to back his claim, and his foreign affairs adviser came up with an ONA report, which Howard read.

I published the transcript of the pre-election Q and A in Red light questions:

Fran Kelly: Defence sources are saying today that the photos released by the Defence Minister’s office some weeks ago of the people in the water from that sinking boat were captioned when they were handed to the Government and that those captions clearly showed that the people were in the water because the boat was sinking, not because people had been thrown overboard, children had been thrown overboard. Will you now ask the Minister of Defence to release those photos with captions as originally provided by the Navy?

Howard: Well, Fran, I don’t know what defence sources you’re referring to but let me just take you through the sequence on this very quickly. The claims that were made by Mr Ruddock and Mr Reith on the Sunday, I think it would have been Sunday the 7th of October, it was just after the election was called, they were based on advice from defence sources. My own comments were based on my discussions with Mr Ruddock and Mr Reith. On the 9th of October I received an ONA report that read in part as follows: Asylum seekers wearing life-jackets jumped into the sea and children were thrown in with them. Such tactics have previously been used elsewhere, for example, by people smugglers and Iraqi asylum seekers on boats intercepted by the Italian Navy.

By referring back to Howard’s previous use of ONA to help his cause, Fran illustrated the priceless asset of corporate memory in journalism. Howard was cornered. Back in 2001, Howard represented that the ONA document was an independent assessment of the children overboard claim. That was its very purpose in his defence. In fact – as the inquiry revealed – ONA told his adviser in writing that its report was based ONLY on press reports of what the Government had claimed happened.

Either Howard knew that and misrepresented the report, or he didn’t, in which case he decided to release what he thought was a genuine ONA assessment.

To justify not releasing the ONA assessment of risk of WMD distribution to terrorists by Saddam, he was forced to admit that he had misused the ONA document on children overboard. Surely on such a vital matter – crucial to his case for war – he would release it if it contradicted Wilkie and backed him. If not, why not? Do you believe John Howard or Andrew Wilkie?

When I was railing at the calumny of the government on children overboard last year, several readers opined that there would be damage to the government in the medium term because it would corrode the governments credibility. Several other readers wrote that most people didn’t care whether Howard and co had deceived the people because they agreed with his boat people policy. For example, in For those who give two hootsGraham Bousen wrote:

Margo, the punter does not give two hoots about this children overboard inquiry. They have been told that on other occasions children were used as pawns, so if the Government was wrong on this one, they were right on the rest. Hence the apparent forgiveness for the fibs. It really is old news that the media keeps perpetuating with its holier than thou indignant approach – have they never fudged the facts themselves? Sad is it may be, the punter does not give a damn.

People who thought this way were admitting to themselves that the government had lied to them. That’s a crack in credibility which could widen significantly now that there’s a very important issue Howard is trying to sell to a public which isn’t enthusiastic about the product. The Australian people know the government is capable of deception. As Fran’s question showed, the children overboard is still capable of haunting the Prime Minister.

***

Mike Seccombe, Sydney Morning Herald: The United States has backed its humanitarian concerns over Iraq with a promise that it will stay around after the war and will spend as much money on restoring the infrastructure of Iraq as it spends on flattening it. I was just wondering if you would give us a commitment that we will do something similar. Will we spend something equivalent to the half a billion to a billion dollars that were going to spend attacking on Iraq, on repairing the damage afterwards? Or will we leave the heavy lifting to someone else?

Howard: Well what we will do is well play a role in the reconstruction if that is necessary as a result of a military conflict. Of course, no reconstruction would be necessary if you could peacefully disarm Iraq, but we’ll make a contribution. We’ve already indicated that well contribute some money, I think $10 million to a fund set up by Kofi Annan. That won’t be the end of that. Well make a further contribution. We would actually want to play a significant and constructive role in the reconstruction process. The one thing that I have said were not going to do is were not going to provide a large peacekeeping force. We dont have the military or defence capability of doing that. But if anybody imagines that we won’t play a strong humanitarian, positive role in the process of reconstruction, theyre completely wrong.

Comment: I’ve never seen Howard visibly gag at a question before. After this one, his mouth fell open and there was a pause of at least two seconds before he answered. Secco’s question was a creative way of asking Howard about the peace, and the responsibility we would accept for rebuilding a country shattered by an invasion in which we participated. His use of the words “heavy hitting” repeated a phrase Howard had just used to in describing Australia’s duty not to sit on the sidelines:

There is a temptation, as some have argued, Australia should do is to sit on the sidelines, to be a spectator, to do very little either diplomatically or militarily, to leave the heavy lifting to others, to assume that we’ll somehow or other be okay in the equation and that in many respects would be quite an appealing approach. And I can understand why some of my fellow Australians have asked why does John Howard think this is important to Australia, why is he taking this stance? I’ve tried to explain some of those reasons. I don’t think this is an issue that Australia can simply be a spectator on. I don’t believe sitting on the sidelines is either good for Australia nor do I believe it has ever really been the Australian way.

His answer made it clear that Australia would repeat its behaviour after the 1991 Gulf War. It was our duty to repel Saddam the monster, the evil one, and we signed up to the moral imperative hook line and sinker. Yet when the war was won and Iraqi refugees fled to Iran, Australia and the rest of the world did little or nothing to look after them. Overwhelmed and financially unsupported by the West, Iran told the Iraqis to leave. They couldn’t go home and there was no queue to seek asylum, so many fled in boats. In early 2001, Phillip Ruddock began issuing temporary entry visas instead of permanent visas to boat people, for the explicit reason that most were now Iraqis and virtually all of them were genuine refugees. Post Tampa, he and Howard did much worse. It looks like we’ll again wash our hands of the casualties of war.

***

Michelle Grattan, The Age: Mr Howard, if as you advocate, countries in the Security Council got behind the resolution and a miracle happened and Iraq said yes it would say the game was up and disarmed, but Saddam Hussein was still there, would this be enough for peace given the strong case you have made today for regime change in the name of the Iraqi people?

John Howard: Well I would have to accept that if Iraq had genuinely disarmed, I couldn’t justify on its own a military invasion of Iraq to change the regime. I’ve never advocated that. Much in all as I despise the regime. But what I was really trying to say today and perhaps it has had some effect is that I get a bit tired of the humanitarian argument all being on the one side. Its about time that the humanitarian argument was put into a better balance and people understand what a monstrous regime we are dealing with.

Comment: Howard devoted a significant hunk of his speech to the humanitarian case for war, signifying a victory for anti-war campaigners focused on the human costs of the war. The humanitarian argument was absent from the pro-war case until the anti-war humanitarian case gained traction. Howard said (after Bush showed him the way):

We’re talking about a regime that will gouge out the eyes of a child to force a confession from the child’s parents. This is a regime that will burn a persons limbs in order to force a confession or compliance. This is a regime that in 2000 decreed the crime of criticising it would be punished by the amputation of tongues. Since Saddam Hussein’s regime came to power in 1979 he has attacked his neighbours and he’s ruthlessly oppressed ethnic and religious groups in Iraq more than one million people have died in internal conflicts and wars. Some four million Iraqis have chosen exile. Two hundred thousand have disappeared from his jails never to be seen again. He has cruelly and cynically manipulated the United Nations oil-for-food programme. He’s rorted it to buy weapons to support his designs at the expense of the wellbeing of his people. Since the Gulf War the people of Iraq have not only endured a cruel and despotic regime but they’ve had to suffer economic deprivation, hunger and sickness.

And we should never forget that economic sanctions imposed have had a humanitarian cost. That cost has been made worse by Saddam Hussein’s rorting of the sanctions regime. Those sanctions could have been lifted years ago if Iraq had complied with the requirements of Security Council resolutions about disarmament.

It is too easy to limit, it’s too easy for some people to limit the humanitarian considerations to the consequences of military conflict. In truth there’s nothing easy or reassuring or comfortable about the problem of Iraq. Surely it is undeniable that if all the humanitarian considerations are put into the balance there is a very powerful case to the effect that the removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime would produce a better life and less suffering for the people of Iraq than its continuation.

If Howard had used those compelling examples of a brutal and brutalising regime when the Iraqi boat people asked for sanctuary, instead of calling them queue jumpers, child throwers and terrorists, the Australian people would have empathised with the necessity for Iraqi refugees to go to any lengths to rescue their families from the horror. We would have welcomed them, not turned them away. Howard’s use of graphic examples of the truth of Saddam’s regime to justify the war on moral grounds after demonising refugees from it just a short time ago was despicable.

He’s in an uncomfortable position, and Michelle – a notoriously cautious columnist who this week in The Age was prepared to call his claim that he hadn’t yet decided to wage war without a UN sanction as ‘The big lie’, skewered Howard’s answer to the humanitarian anti-war. He is forced to admit that rescuing the Iraqi’s is not the reason for war, or even a reason. If he did make the claim, of course, he would be confronted with the terrible fact that the US backed Saddam for many years in full knowledge of his barbarism.

No, saving the Iraqi people would be a happy byproduct of war, that’s all. Not only that, we see from his answer to Secco’s question that he would do virtually nothing to help the Iraqi people rebuild a shattered nation after he’s helped bomb it to smithereens. Goodbye just war.

***

Dennis Grant, SBS television

In your speech today my attention was drawn to this line where you’re talking about “people who are ready to mount the moral parapets” of this debate. Can I draw your attention to some of them? Could I draw your attention to General Peter Gration – he was CDF at the time of the last Gulf War; Major General Peter Phillips, fighting soldier in Vietnam, the National President of the RSL. On the diplomatic side, Dick Woolcott – former head of the Department of Foreign Affairs. All of them are opposed to your policy. Can you point me to a credible, non-political figure who does support your policy?

John Howard: Well, in the nature of political debate Dennis, people don’t declare and come out in favour of something that is being done, they tend to come out against something that they disagree with. And in talking about those gentlemen, particularly Peter Gration and Peter Phillips, I don’t regard everybody as everybody’s who’s been a little bit critical as having mounted the moral parapets, I don’t. I, in fact, I followed carefully what both Peter Gration and Peter Phillips have said and I don’t, you know, I don’t put them in the category of people who have branded what we’re doing as immoral and war mongering and so forth, they have reservations, they have different views about different aspects of it. As far as Dick Woolcott is concerned, well I respect his views. He, of course, was somebody who was very critical of our intervention in East Timor, now that’s his right. But in a debate like this you get a whole range of views and I’ve read what Peter and the two Peter’s have said and whilst they raise a number of questions and express some concerns, I don’t regard them as having mounted the moral parapets in the way that some others have done.

Well the question of who supports me or who doesn’t support me in the end is a judgement for the people of Australia. I regard the views of individual Australians on this as just as valuable as the views of people you’ve quoted or any people I might invoke. I mean this is something for the people to think about and the purpose of a gathering like this is for me, through this forum, to talk directly to the people of Australia. I’m interested in their views, some of them don’t agree with me, some of them do. A lot of them haven’t made up their minds and I can understand that because, as I said right at the beginning, this is the first major difficult international issue of great complexity, the world has had to grapple since the arrival of what I might call the new dispensation of which I spoke in my address.

Comment: Howard has completely fallen apart now. By saying that in politics “people don’t declare and come out in favour of something that is being done, they tend to come out against something that they disagree with”, he’s implying that he’s decided to go to war, something he’s denied. If you take him at his word, the matter is unresolved, in which case you’d expect vigorous debate from credible people on both sides of the debate.

In any event, his claim is inaccurate. It’s a standard feature of political debate that before a decision is announced, a government lines up credible non-political figures to praise it on release. And when a government is not winning an important political debate, it’s standard practice to press supporters of its cause to go public. Howard, it seems, has been spectacularly unsuccessful in this endeavour.

The fact that he can think of not one credible non-political figure who supports his position is proof that he’s in deep trouble on the merits. To then outsource the question to the people of Australia to rack there brains over – and on a question of fact, not opinion – is breathtaking. And the fact that he gives the people this responsibility while making it clear he’s perfectly prepared to go to war in the face of contrary public opinion, shows he’s been snookered. For mine, Grant asked the question of the day.

***

Catherine McGrath, AM, PM and World Today: You opened your speech today by talking about terrorism, terrorist groups and you identified Osama bin Laden, you talked about his appalling track record. You then spoke about Iraq and said that if Iraq is not stopped that’s the green light for weapons to pass from terrorists to Iraq. Can I ask you, you’ve made a link between the terrorists’ requests, the terrorists’ desire but you haven’t made a strong link between Iraq or provided any proof that Iraq is seeking to deliver its weapons to terrorists. Can I ask you a two part question – do you have any evidence that you can provide now? Secondly, what about other countries that hold nuclear weapons that may provide opportunities for terrorists, for example, Pakistan which some could argue would have more chance of passing them on?

Howard: Well, can I start with the other countries that have them. I mean, we regret very much that Pakistan and India have nuclear weapons, we made that very clear. I mean, I do have some warm regard for the courage and the stance of General Musharraf in the war against terror. I have great admiration for the risks that he’s taken and the strength he’s displayed. India and Pakistan, to my knowledge, didn’t sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and they don’t, to my knowledge, have the same track record as Iraq.

I mean, to compare a country like India which is the probably the – I mean, it’s the largest functioning democracy in the world – with Iraq is very very unfair. And equally, although Pakistan has not had the same familiarity with parliamentary democracy as India, it is nonetheless in many other ways a very very good international citizen. So, I don’t think you can and I think it’s very unfair on both India and Pakistan to draw that analogy.

Catherine, with respect I think you leapt over one of the things I said. I mean, my argument is this in relation to Iraq. Iraq is demonstrably, to use my language, a rogue state. If we don’t make sure that Iraq is disarmed, that of itself will encourage other rogue states to acquire and develop weapons of mass destruction and the more of those states that acquire, the greater inevitably is the likelihood that those weapons are going to get into the hands of terrorists. And when you have on top of that clear evidence, that I mentioned today, that Al Qaeda – the most lethal of the international terrorist organisations – wants to get its hands on, and in fact is doing its own work in relation to those weapons, you know, that to me is pretty compelling.

Now, you say proof, I mean as I say, I can’t prove before an Old Bailey or a Central Criminal Court jury but can I say to you again, I mean if the world waits for that, it’s too late. I mean, that is I said a Pearl Harbour situation.

Comment: He’s on the run. He raises India out of the blue as covering waffle, then finds that his justifications for not seeing India as a threat ruptures his pr-Pakistan case, as Pakistan is a military dictatorship still suspended from the Commonwealth due to the overthrow of the democratic government. To allege that Pakistan – a known financial and military supporter of the Taliban before September 11 – is “a very very good international citizen” is beyond belief.

To the big question. Was there ANY evidence that Iraq is seeking to deliver WMDs to terrorists. The sting in the tale in this question is Andrew Wilkie’s claim that ONA assesses that Saddam could deliver WMDs to terrorists AS A RESPONSE to an invasion. Howard ignores this crucial claim in his speech and in every answer.

Instead, he replies by restating that Iraq is a rogue state, and that there is good evidence that al-Qaeda wants WMDs. From this non-answer he jumps to the admission that he can’t, and shouldn’t have to, provide proof to the criminal standard of beyond reasonable doubt. Sure, but how about some EVIDENCE – even a little bit. He covers over this gap by citing Pearl Harbour. There was no warning of that attack – is Howard saying we have the right to invade another country with no proof at all?

***

Laurie Oakes, Nine Network: I don’t think you answered Catherine’s question, so before I ask mine I’ll ask hers in a slightly different way. We read in the morning papers that you were going to present today evidence from our intelligence agencies of a link between Iraq and terrorists. What happened to that evidence? Why isn’t it in your speech? And since you’ve made no attempt at all to demonstrate a link, are we to assume there is none?

And then my question after you’ve answered that – the speculation that the US and its allies will stop seeking a fresh UN resolution against Iraq before launching military action, Spain one of the co-sponsors has indicated there’s not much point if it’s not going to get through. Is that your information and how do you feel about that?

John Howard: Well, Laurie, in answer to the second question – I’ve had a number of discussions about what’s happening in the UN, the latest information I have is that there is still a very concerted effort being made to get a resolution through. Now, its a fluid situation, things can often change but they’re still trying very hard.

As for the first question, well I read what was in the paper this morning and I’m not entirely responsible for what’s in the newspapers, although I’m sometimes responsible for some of it. I’m perfectly happy to plead guilty to that. What I endeavoured to do today was to do two things – to establish clear evidence that terrorist groups wanted weapons of mass destruction and I think I did that and I think I did that quite convincingly. I’ve never represented to anybody that we could produce what I called Darlinghurst or Old Bailey proof.

Comment: Mike Seccombe details the misrepresentation from John Howard’s office which got him live coverage from Nine and Seven as well as the ABC in All the propaganda that’s fit to hear. Besides getting the free hit on TV, Howard achieved page one headlines and news stories the morning of his speech containing the claim that Howard would detail new evidence of terrorist attempts to seek WMDs (see, for example, the page one lead of the Herald, PM’s final case for war). Howard awkwardly fudges – he doesn’t deny he leaked false info, he doesn’t deny his office leaked false info (he can’t – his audience KNOWS the truth). So he denies something Laurie hadn’t alleged – that the leak was that he’d provide evidence satisfying the criminal onus of proof. He and his office have been caught out in blatant media manipulation. He seems to be learning his media tricks from Bush too – the incident reminds me of senasational, and false, White House leaks to the press before big speeches, for example the security council statement of evidence by Colin Powell. Fake info, dishonest spin. Find the suckers to convince. Get the cheap scores. Sickening. Blowback – full-on cynicism from journalists, who’ll stop taking big deal people at their word.

Colin Powell announced today that the US might renege on Bush’s cast iron guarantee to his people last week that he would force a security council vote – that all members would have to put their cards on the table (US wavers on seeking UN approval for the development). See Cards on the table for Bush’s promise: “Yes, we’ll call for the vote: No matter what the whip count is, we’ll call for a vote. It’s time for people to show their cards.”

Yet Howard yesterday, true to form, avoided the question, which meant he didn’t have to discuss the ramifications of a refusal to seek a vote, as distinct from a defeat on a vote. George Bush, Asutralia’s wartime leader.

***

Tony Wright, The Bulletin: If, as Donald Rumsfeld suggested a couple of days ago, Britain decided not to go ahead in the Gulf. How comfortable would you have been for Australia to be the single deputy to the US in any strike on Iraq? And when you deployed Australian troops in the first place, did you imagine at that time that Australia could still be in the position of being the only other nation that troops in the Gulf, other than the US and Britain, at this time?

Howard: Well, I think it’s – I didn’t see a lot of other countries at that time coming in, although we made our decision based on our own assessment. I mean, as to what the British do is a matter for Britain. What we do is a matter for us. Clearly, the presence of the British there is seen by many Australians as an important supplement to the presence of the Americans. I want to say that the leadership that’s been displayed by Tony Blair on this issue in his own party has been extraordinary and I salute him for that. He’s a very strong Labor leader and I think he deserves a great deal of respect for the very strong attitude that he’s taken. He believes very strongly in what he’s doing – I know that, as I do.

Comment: Why won’t John Howard level with the Australian people? Its stating the bleeding obvious that what Britain does is what Britain does. What would it mean for us? We get an admission that many Australians think it’s important that the Brits fight beside us if there’s a non-UN sanctioned attack, but doesn’t say what he thinks.

***

Karen Middleton, The West Australian: The Chief of the Defence Force, General Cosgrove, gave an undertaking today that he would never lie about the activity of our forces in the Gulf, but he also acknowledged the Defence forces have been generally reluctant to discuss publicly particularly the activity about special forces. I’d like to ask you, can you envisage any circumstances in which you would deem it in the national interest not to tell the truth to the Australian people about our forces activities in the Gulf?

John Howard: Well I haven’t come across them yet. It’s a hard question. I don’t want to mislead the Australian people. Sometimes you have to be careful if the lives of people are at risk and I hope the Australian people would always understand that. But as to whether I would set out deliberately to deceive them, no I hope I never do that.

Comment: Are you comforted by Mr Howard’s ‘hope” that he won’t deliberately deceive the Australian people? Maybe it gets easier with practice.

***

Lincoln Wright, The Canberra Times:

Prime Minister, your speech today strikes me as a clear case for regime change in a sense that youve raised the humanitarian argument about the regime. I think youve backed off a bit from that before. But is it really an addition to your foreign policy armoury now? And my second question is the Americans talk a lot about reshaping the Middle East in terms of geopolitics in Iran, Saudi Arabia. Youve rarely mentioned that, that were buying into that position. Can you comment on that please as well?

John Howard: Well you’re the commentator about what Ive said. But our position on regime change has not changed. But I do think that its necessary in these public presentation of this whole thing for the Australian public to be reminded of the balance of the humanitarian argument because inevitably when the possibility of war looms people talk about the costs of it, and that is naturally human. I mean we all hate it. Anybody who thinks I’m enjoying having to argue this position in the sense that, you know, I like the idea that at some stage this country might be involved in a military conflict, I mean nothing could be further from the truth. I’d much rather be talking to you today even about things like the – the GST’s come and gone, but other things like that, much rather. You know, health policy, having a debate about good water policy with the States, things like that. But I cant do that. But I do want the Australian people to understand that the humanitarian argument is not all on the side of those who are attacking the stance being taken by the Americans and by implication ourselves and the British. And if it does come to military action I believe there is a very powerful case that the humanitarian balance will point to a better life for the Iraqi people without Saddam Hussein because although regime change is not the primary goal of Australian policies, if it is necessary to forcibly disarm Iraq it is axiomatic that the regime will go. I think most people understand that.

But as far as reshaping the Middle East is concerned, well the American Administration can say what it chooses to on that. We’re not necessarily saying exactly the same thing on reshaping the Middle East. I am well known as somebody who is a strong supporter of the State of Israel but Im not an uncritical friend and nobody should be. But I would like to see the re-elected government of Israel, it doesn’t seem to be quite as possible now because of the structure of the coalition, I would like to see as much responsiveness as possible. I do believe in the establishment of an independent Palestinian State. They do have a right to that, and I welcome the cautious moves to appoint a prime minister for Palestinethe Palestinian Council I think you call it, and I hope we get something out of that and I think theres a great hunger around the world and I want to make sure that we keep trying. I think it was a mistake that those representatives of the Palestinian Council were not allowed to participate in that conference in London. But can I just say again, how can you ask the Israelis to reach out to certain initiatives when these suicide bombers keep blowing up kids and university students and everything.

Comment: Can Howard really get away with saying that the US “can say what it chooses on (reshaping the middle-east”? He’s already admitted we’re a close ally, and his actions show that when where the Americans lead he follows on request. And can he really get away the meaningless vagueness of “we’re not necessarily saying exactly the same thing on reshaping the Middle East” How much contempt does he expect the Australian people to cop?

***

James Grubel, AAP: Mr Howard. I just want to follow up on your comments a moment ago about the rules of engagement for Australian forces in the Gulf. Presumably some thought has been given to this, given that events are coming to a head. Can you explain to us now whether there will be limits on will our SAS troops be involved in frontline activities going into Iraq, and can you explain to us will the FA18s over there be limited in the sort of missions they can undertake, or will they be given a free rein to attack Iraqi strongholds?

Howard:

No, well look, I cant go into that detail. Were just running a little bit ahead of ourselves in asking me to go into that detail. But what I was doing was stating the principle, and that is that there will be separate rules of engagement and there will be a targeting policy to be approved if all of those things become necessary, and that that will be determined by Australia. I mean obviously the Defence Minister and I will be very directly involved in that.

Comment: Webdiarist Jack Robertson has focused on the unanswered question of the rules of engagement for quite a while now. The ROE must be in place by now, awaiting a tick when Bush presses the war button. But there can be no discussion on debate, as usual. We’ll be told after Howard sends us to war.

Howard: Never in doubt on Iraq

Hi. The clock is ticking, it’s the final countdown to war – whatever cliche you use, we’re all scared. Very scared. Don’t you wish you were John Howard? He’s never had doubts that he was doing the right thing. Me, I’ve always feared people without self-doubt.

 

Here’s what Howard told TV journalist Mike Hosking in New Zealand yesterday:

Hosking: Is this the greatest test of your leadership so far?

Howard: This is the most difficult issue I’ve had, yes.

Hosking: How hard have you wrestled with it?

Howard: You always anguish over something like this, but I have never thought of changing my position. Never.

Lucky Howard! Lucky Australia? There’s lots of doubt among other world leaders. A mainstream American journo at the Davos meeting of world heavyweights in January wrote this background note on the mood, the fear, and the angst at the top of world political, economic and military power:

I spent a week in Davos, Switzerland at the World Economic Forum (WEF). I was awarded a special pass which allowed me full access to not only the entire official meeting, but also private dinners with the likes the head of the Saudi Secret Police, presidents of various countries, your Fortune 500 CEOS and the leaders of the most important NGOs in the world. This was not typical press access. It was full-on, unfettered, class A hobnobbing.

This sweet little chalet village was during the WEF packed with about 3000 delegates and press, some 1000 Swiss police, another 400 Swiss soldiers, numerous tanks and armored personnel carriers, gigantic rolls of coiled barbed wire that gracefully cascaded down snow-covered hillsides, missile launchers and assorted other tools of the national security trade. The security precautions did not, of course, stop there. Every single person who planned to enter the conference site had special electronic badges which, upon being swiped across a reading pad, produced a computer screen filled color portrait of the attendee, along with his/her vital statistics. These were swiped and scrutinized by soldiers and police every few minutes – any time one passed through a door, basically. The whole system was connected to handheld wireless communication devices made by HP, which were issued to all VIPs. I got one. Very cool, except when they crashed. Which, of course, they did frequently. These devices supplied every imaginable piece of information one could want about the conference, your fellow delegates, Davos, the world news, etc. And they were emailing devices – all emails being monitored, of course, by Swiss cops.

Overall, here is what I learned about the state of our world:

* I was in a dinner with heads of Saudi and German FBI, plus the foreign minister of Afghanistan. They all said that at its peak Al Qaeda had 70,000 members. Only 10% of them were trained in terrorism — the rest were military recruits. Of that 7000, they say all but about 200 are dead or in jail.

* But Al Qaeda, they say, is like a brand which has been heavily franchised. And nobody knows how many unofficial franchises have been spawned since 9/11.

* The global economy is in very very very very bad shape. Last year when WEF met here in New York all I heard was, “Yeah, it’s bad, but recovery is right around the corner”. This year “recovery” was a word never uttered. Fear was palpable – fear of enormous fiscal hysteria. The watchwords were “deflation”, “long term stagnation” and “collapse of the dollar”. All of this is without war.

* If the U.S. unilaterally goes to war and it is anything short of a quick surgical strike (lasting less than 30 days), the economists were all predicting extreme economic gloom: falling dollar value, rising spot market oil prices, the Fed pushing interest rates down towards zero with (a) resulting increase in national debt, severe trouble in all countries whose currency is guaranteed against the dollar (which is just about everybody except the EU), (and) a near cessation of all development and humanitarian programs for poor countries. Very few economists or ministers of finance predicted the world getting out of that economic funk for minimally 5 to 10 years, once the downward spiral ensues.

* Not surprisingly, the business community was in no mood to hear about a war in Iraq. Except for diehard American Republicans, a few Brit Tories and some Middle East folks the WEF was in a foul, angry anti-American mood. Last year the WEF was a lovefest for America. This year the mood was so ugly that it reminded me of what it felt like to be an American overseas in the Reagan years. The rich – whether they are French or Chinese or just about anybody – are livid about the Iraq crisis primarily because they believe it will sink their financial fortunes.

Plenty are also infuriated because they disagree on policy grounds. For example:

* If Al Qaeda is down to merely 200 terrorists cadres and a handful of wannabe franchises, what’s all the fuss?

* The Middle East situation has never been worse. All hope for a settlement between Israel and Palestine seems to have evaporated. The energy should be focused on placing painful financial pressure on all sides in that fight, forcing them to the negotiating table. Otherwise, the ME may well explode. The war in Iraq is at best a distraction from that core issue, at worst may aggravate it. Jordan’s Queen Rania spoke of the “desperate search for hope”.

* Serious Islamic leaders (eg the King of Jordan, the Prime Minster of Malaysia, the Grand Mufti of Bosnia) believe that the Islamic world must recapture the glory days of 12-13th C Islam. That means finding tolerance and building great education institutions and places of learning. The King was passionate on the subject. It also means freedom of movement and speech within and among the Islamic nations. And, most importantly to the WEF, it means flourishing free trade and support for entrepreneurs with minimal state regulation. (However, there were also several Middle East representatives who argued precisely the opposite. They believe bringing down Saddam Hussein and then pushing the Israel/Palestine issue could actually result in a Golden Age for Arab Islam.)

* US unilateralism is seen as arrogant, bullyish. If the U.S. cannot behave in partnership with its allies – especially the Europeans – it risks not only political alliance but BUSINESS as well. Company leaders argued that they would rather not have to deal with US government attitudes about all sorts of multilateral treaties (climate change, intellectual property, rights of children, etc.) – it’s easier to just do business in countries whose governments agree with yours. And it’s cheaper, in the long run, because the regulatory environments match. War against Iraq is seen as just another example of the unilateralism.

* For a minority of the participants there was another layer of anti-Americanism that focused on moralisms and religion. I often heard delegates complain that the US “opposes the rights of children”, because we block all treaties and UN efforts that would support sex education and condom access for children and teens. They spoke of sex education as a “right”. Similarly, there was a decidedly mixed feeling about Ashcroft, who addressed the conference. I attended a small lunch with Ashcroft, and observed Ralph Reed and other prominent Christian fundamentalists working the room and bowing their heads before eating. The rest of the world’s elite finds this American Christian behavior at least as uncomfortable as it does Moslem or Hindu fundamentalist behavior. They find it awkward every time a US representative refers to “faith-based” programs. It’s different from how it makes non-Christian Americans feel – these folks experience it as downright embarrassing.

* When Colin Powell gave the speech of his life, trying to win over the nonAmerican delegates, the sharpest attack on his comments came not from Amnesty International or some Islamic representative – it came from the head of the largest bank in the Netherlands!

I learned that the only economy about which there is much enthusiasm is China, which was responsible for 77% of the global GDP growth in 2002. But the honcho of the Bank of China, Zhu Min, said that fantastic growth could slow to a crawl if China cannot solve its rural/urban problem. Currently 400 million Chinese are urbanites, and their average income is 16 times that of the 900 million rural residents. Zhu argued China must urbanize nearly a billion people in ten years!

The US economy is the primary drag on the global economy, and only a handful of nations have sufficient internal growth to thrive when the US is stagnating.

The WEF was overwhelmed by talk of security, with fears of terrorism, computer and copyright theft, assassination and global instability dominating almost every discussion.

I learned from American security and military speakers that: “We need to attack Iraq not to punish it for what it might have, but preemptively, as part of a global war. Iraq is just one piece of a campaign that will last years, taking out states, cleansing the planet.”

These WEF folks are freaked out. They see very bad economics ahead, war, and more terrorism. About 10% of the sessions were about terrorism, and it’s heavy stuff. One session costed out what another 9/11-type attack would do to global markets, predicting a far, far worse impact due to the “second hit” effect – a second hit that would prove all the world’s post-9/11 security efforts had failed. Another costed out in detail what this or that war scenario would do to spot oil prices. Russian speakers argued that “failed nations” were spawning terrorists – code for saying, “we hate Chechnya”. Entire sessions were devoted to arguing which poses the greater asymmetric threat: nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

Finally, who are these guys? I actually enjoyed a lot of my conversations, and found many of the leaders and rich quite charming and remarkably candid. Some dressed elegantly, no matter how bitter cold and snowy it was, but most seemed quite happy in ski clothes or casual attire. Women wearing pants was perfectly acceptable, and the elite is sufficiently Multicultural that even the suit and tie lacks a sense of dominance. Watching Bill Clinton address the conference while sitting in the hotel room of the President of Mozambique – we were viewing it on closed circuit TV – I got juicy blow-by-blow analysis of US foreign policy from a remarkably candid head of state. A day spent with Bill Gates turned out to be fascinating and fun. I found the CEO of Heinekin hilarious, and George Soros proved quite earnest about confronting AIDS. Vicente Fox – who I had breakfast with – proved sexy and smart like a – well, a fox. David Stern (Chair of the NBA) ran up and gave me a hug.

The world isn’t run by a clever cabal. It’s run by about 5,000 bickering, sometimes charming, usually arrogant, mostly male people who are accustomed to living in either phenomenal wealth, or (with) great personal power. A few have both. Many of them turn out to be remarkably naive – especially about science and technology. All of them are financially wise, though their ranks have thinned due to unwise tech-stock investing. They pay close heed to politics, though most would be happy if the global political system behaved far more rationally – better for the bottom line. They work very hard, attending sessions from dawn to nearly midnight, but expect the standards of intelligence and analysis to be the best available in the entire world. They are impatient. They have a hard time reconciling long term issues (global warming, AIDS pandemic, resource scarcity) with their daily bottomline foci. They are comfortable working across languages, cultures and gender, though white caucasian males still outnumber all other categories. They adore hi-tech gadgets and are glued to their cell phones.

***

The New York Times yesterday announced its opposition to war without UN sanction (The Sydney Morning Herald has yet to state its position):

Saying No to War

Within days, barring a diplomatic breakthrough, President Bush will decide whether to send American troops into Iraq in the face of United Nations opposition. We believe there is a better option involving long-running, stepped-up weapons inspections. But like everyone else in America, we feel the window closing. If it comes down to a question of yes or no to invasion without broad international support, our answer is no.

Even though Hans Blix, the chief weapons inspector, said that Saddam Hussein was not in complete compliance with United Nations orders to disarm, the report of the inspectors on Friday was generally devastating to the American position. They not only argued that progress was being made, they also discounted the idea that Iraq was actively attempting to manufacture nuclear weapons. History shows that inspectors can be misled, and that Mr. Hussein can never be trusted to disarm and stay disarmed on his own accord. But a far larger and more aggressive inspection program, backed by a firm and united Security Council, could keep a permanent lid on Iraq’s weapons program.

By adding hundreds of additional inspectors, using the threat of force to give them a free hand and maintaining the option of attacking Iraq if it tries to shake free of a smothering inspection program, the United States could obtain much of what it was originally hoping to achieve. Mr. Hussein would now be likely to accept such an intrusive U.N. operation. Had Mr. Bush managed the showdown with Iraq in a more measured manner, he would now be in a position to rally the U.N. behind that bigger, tougher inspection program, declare victory and take most of the troops home.

Unfortunately, by demanding regime change, Mr. Bush has made it much harder for Washington to embrace this kind of long-term strategy. He has talked himself into a corner where war or an unthinkable American retreat seem to be the only alternatives visible to the administration. Every signal from the White House is that the diplomatic negotiations will be over in days, not weeks. Every signal from the United Nations is that when that day arrives, the United States will not have Security Council sanction to attack.

There are circumstances under which the president would have to act militarily no matter what the Security Council said. If America was attacked, we would have to respond swiftly and fiercely. But despite endless efforts by the Bush administration to connect Iraq to Sept. 11, the evidence simply isn’t there. The administration has demonstrated that Iraq had members of Al Qaeda living within its borders, but that same accusation could be lodged against any number of American allies in the region. It is natural to suspect that one of America’s enemies might be actively aiding another, but nations are not supposed to launch military invasions based on hunches and fragmentary intelligence.

The second argument the Bush administration cites for invading Iraq is its refusal to obey U.N. orders that it disarm. That’s a good reason, but not when the U.N. itself believes disarmament is occurring and the weapons inspections can be made to work. If the United States ignores the Security Council and attacks on its own, the first victim in the conflict will be the United Nations itself. The whole scenario calls to mind that Vietnam-era catch phrase about how we had to destroy a village in order to save it.

President Bush has switched his own rationale for the invasion several times. Right now, the underlying theory seems to be that the United States can transform the Middle East by toppling Saddam Hussein, turning Iraq into a showplace democracy and inspiring the rest of the region to follow suit. That’s another fine goal that seems impossible to accomplish outside the context of broad international agreement. The idea that the resolution to all the longstanding, complicated problems of that area begins with a quick military action is both seductive and extremely dangerous. The Bush administration has not been willing to risk any political capital in attempting to resolve the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, but now the president is theorizing that invading Iraq will do the trick.

Given the corner Mr. Bush has painted himself in, withdrawing troops even if a considerable slice remains behind would be an admission of failure. He obviously intends to go ahead, and bet on the very good chance that the Iraqi army will fall quickly. The fact that the United Nations might be irreparably weakened would not much bother his conservative political base at home, nor would the outcry abroad. But in the long run, this country needs a strong international body to keep the peace and defuse tension in a dozen different potential crisis points around the world. It needs the support of its allies, particularly embattled states like Pakistan, to fight the war on terror. And it needs to demonstrate by example that there are certain rules that everybody has to follow, one of the most important of which is that you do not invade another country for any but the most compelling of reasons. When the purpose is fuzzy, or based on questionable propositions, it’s time to stop and look for other, less extreme means to achieve your goals.

***

Voon C. Chin

Thank you for providing the Webdiary as effectively as you have in this time of international crisis. There is currently so much confusion in the media its hard to separate propaganda (both government and corporate) from the news. The Howard government has taken so many liberties with the Australian public that my only surety in this matter is in their dishonesty.

As a child I asked my father how I would ever be able to discern the truth from the media. He answered that Truth is a collage of facts. Each fact as true or as untrue as the other – depending on what you want to believe. But if you REALLY want to know the truth then place all the different pieces before you and the truth will present itself. If you don’t like what you see then you can be sure its the truth. Thank you for providing the canvass.

***

What is this new world order we’re watching develop, or should I say mutate, amid this terrifying chaos? Here’s Chris Murphy’s analysis.

Balancing hegemony: The real New World Order begins to emerge

by Chris Murphy

So what if the United Nations does fracture? Presumably the United States, having shown its contempt for the organisation by totally ignoring world opinion, will officially pull out, leaving the rest of the world to ponder the future of alliances.

My guess is that the vast majority of nations will decide to remain in the U.N. for two reasons – it offers support to the powerless, and it provides a global forum for the lesser powers to influence the powerless. Very soon the world will find itself divided into two camps, one governed by U.S. foreign policy, and the other most likely led by a European-Asian alliance.

Let’s be clear: The United States is not totally isolated in the United Nations. At the government level at least, it already has the support of Britain, Spain, Italy, Australia and Japan to launch a “unilateral” attack on Iraq. And when the Security Council sits down this week to vote on the proposed U.S.-U.K. resolution, there are likely to be a number of other states willing to side with the Americans.

George W. Bush showed last week that he is willing to call the UN’s bluff. He may just be hoping that he can find the numbers, but in reality he is left with no choice. He must break through or break. Three of the permanent members of the Security Council – France, Russia and China – have indicated they are prepared to veto the proposed resolution. Bush knows, however, that he cannot abide by any U.N. decision disallowing an attack on Iraq. With 250,000 coalition troops biting at the bit on Iraq’s borders, he knows that to defer “decisive action” now would not only mean his own political suicide but the destruction of Republican neoconservative orthodoxy for decades to come, as well as a severe loss of face for the American nation.

Not going to war, therefore, is simply not an option for Bush. The question therefore must be: What happens if and when the U.N. has been ignored by the world’s only superpower?

Leaving aside the grave doubts that many now have about a post-war Iraq, the much broader concern must be with the structure of global politics if the U.S. abandons the U.N.

In very simple terms, I believe the world will be divided into those who are “with” the United States and those who are “against” it. After all, according to George Bush’s own simple view of the world, there can be nowhere in between.

There are very many reasons to question the need for a war, and certainly a war that puts a premature end to the gradual dismantling of Iraqi weapons programs via UN weapons inspections. These reasons have been expounded by those opposing the US in the UN, most notably France.

But, in the world of international politics, all is never as simple as it seems. As much as we know that the Americans are pursuing their own agenda in the UN for their own self-interested reasons, we can be absolutely certain that the the French and others are certainly pursuing a hidden agenda for their own reasons, too. And it has little to do with reasoned argument.

This is make or break politics. For the big players, the results may well be death or glory, in geo-political terms. If nine or more members of the UN Security Council support the proposal for war, then France will be effectively sidelined and diminished as a world leader. It’s sphere of influence will be severely deflated to a point where it encompasses little more than – perhaps – its close German ally and a short list of former French colonies.

The UN may also be saved, but only because the Americans will have won for themselves a very handy tool for endorsing any future foreign adventures.

However if the Security Council rejects the US-UK proposal for war and the “coalition of the willing” decides to go to war without UN endorsement, the UN will be seen to have “failed”. But, although it will be diminished as a truly international body, if US is opposed by the French, Russians, Chinese and others, then the remnants of a fractured UN will present quite a prize – a fully constituted international body just waiting for a new leader to emerge from the next round of international power politics.

My guess is that this is probably what recent French manoeuvring on the world stage has really been all about. And it has been no coincidence that the other dominant power in the European Union, Germany, has been fully supportive of the French. It may even explain the “suicidal” strategy of Tony Blair to support George Bush in the face of massive public opposition.

If the Security Council votes this week to oppose a United States-led war on Iraq, then we will all be almost certainly witnessing the next great moment in world history, one just as momentous as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914.

Just as the start of the First World War signalled the beginning of the 20th century, this week’s imminent event will no doubt be seen to mark the beginning of the 21st century and how the world is shaped for the next 100 years.

One side of this split in world power can be clearly observed already. The US will obviously continue to wield immense military and economic power across the globe. Its philosophy will be simple – the spread of Western-style democracy and capitalism.

Yet the US will not be left unchallenged as it has been since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In many ways this new balance of power will resemble the resumption of another Cold War, except this time the US will be opposed not by one ideology but by an alliance of democratic states and authoritarian regimes.

We will witness the emergence of an increasingly self-confident and strident European power sharing the stage with a staunchly authoritarian yet increasingly capitalistic China.

The “New Cold War” will not be a military stand-off but an economic one. The new race will not be waged in terms of arms or outer space but in terms of trading partners and resources.

The rest of the world will be left to choose – or be chosen – between these two alliances. To some extent, this has already happened. Clearly, Britain wants to be America’s main ally, sitting on the doorstep of Europe but looking firmly west for strategic guidance. Japan has signalled that it will remain strongly allied with the US, no doubt fully aware of its vulnerability in the face of an expanding and expansionist China. And Canada will be forced – for geographic reasons but somewhat reluctantly – to rejoin the American “team”.

On the other side, the (new) European Union will vie with China for leadership of the “anti-American” group. Who belongs to this group will be anyone’s guess.

But one thing is certain: Henceforth, international alliances will almost totally depend on the economic power wielded – and the benefits offered – by these two opposing spheres of influence. If they play their cards right, developing countries could be the main beneficiaries of this immense power play.

***

Max Phillips

Disclosure: Max is a member of The Greens

You say: “In the end, it gets back to whether you think the war will help or hinder world peace. In the end, pro and anti war debaters are focused on this question, and the moral arguments for and against war are subsidiary. In other words, we’re all thinking real politic here, whether we’re for or against the war, and for or against Australian involvement.” (A letter from the SAS?)

I disagree that we all believe that moral or ethical arguments are subsidiary to real politic in regard to the war. If you look at the slogans anti-war protesters carry on their banners, most are about ethics over any pragmatic real politic – “No Blood for Oil!”, “You Can’t Bomb for Peace!”, “How Many Children Per Litre?”. In fact many of us on the anti-war side would argue that ethics and real politic can not be divorced.

You write: “He [Wojdylo] seems to be saying that it doesn’t matter what the reason for the war is if its effect is to liberate the Iraqi people. I can go along with that, provided there are guarantees the peace will also be just.”

This seems to be the utilitarian argument – “the greatest good for the greatest number” and it seems that the pursuit of this goal legitimises discarding ethical considerations. Perhaps it can be condensed and expressed as: “If we kill 100,000 Iraqi children so that 400,000 can be saved from the long-term tyranny of Saddam Hussein then the price is worth it, the war is just.”

I’m no expert of philosophy of ethics, but I will try and have a go at why such thinking is wrong and will lead to bad decisions.

Let me pose some other utilitarian questions:

* If the genocide of 900,000 indigenous people of West Papua and the destruction of their culture would lead to the greater prosperity for 200 million Indonesians, is the price worth it?

* Is it OK to deny basic human and legal rights to the prisoners of Camp X-Ray because it pleases 100 million Americans?

* If the physical torture of John Wojdylo provides immense pleasure for 200 Web Diary readers, does this more than make up for the pain that John will feel?

* Can someone murder John Howard for what he believes is the greater good of 19 million Australians?

I don’t think it is acceptable, nor sensible, to make decisions on a solely utilitarian basis. To replace ethics with a ledger book in which we calculate a balance of human lives and happiness is a big mistake.

If we start calculating the justice of a war by the same methods we use to judge the prudence of a business deal or a chess move, then we have lost our humanity. It would be better to admit we are barbarians and are adhering to tribal loyalty than to pontificate about the ‘justice’ of murdering thousands of fellow human beings.

And exactly who should hold and administer the utilitarian ledger book? The mightiest power? The Security Council? The General Assembly? The media? The protesting public? John Wojdylo? I’m not sure anyone but God, if she exists, has that right.

Appealing to “real politic” pragmatism to justify the abandonment of ethical considerations is a recipe for disaster. Jesus, Gandhi and Martin Luther-King are just three prominent figures whose philosophy claimed that ethics and action must not be divorced and to do so will not solve a problem, only prolong it.

If we look at the spiral of violence in Israel/Palestine it is obvious that the many pragmatic moves by both sides do nothing to solve the situation, rather the lack of ethics on both sides only inflames and prolongs the whole conflict.

When less ethical people (war criminals and terrorists) are in power the conflict and suffering only deepens.

If we look closer to home, the ALP abandoned its ethics in the name of pragmatism when the MV Tampa sailed into Australian politics. Their pragmatic stance failed to win the election and the abandonment of ethics has cost both the soul and effectiveness of the party.

Conversely the ethical stance of the Greens has catapulted them from the fringe to a real force in Australian politics. Meanwhile the pragmatic Democrats flounder in their puddle of pragmatism.

Pragmatic but unethical actions might seem to solve a problem in the short term, it might create a sense of security, but it can never solve a problem in the long term. To really solve a problem it must be through ethical means. It must be with love not hate, cooperation not conflict, peace not war.

Basically what I’m struggling to say is that you can’t abandon ethics in pursuit of an ethical outcome. It is internally inconsistent. You can’t bomb for peace. You can’t kill one Iraqi child to save another. It just doesn’t make sense.

Margo: The argument John Wojdylo is making is that the Iraqi people have collectively decided that the deaths of some of their number are acceptable for the good of all. If anyone is qualified to make that decision it is they, and only they.

Tony Blair: The whole world’s in his hands

Hi. So the US will ask the Security Council to vote mid-week, and last Friday John Howard booked the National Press Club for a speech on Thursday, March 13. The US/UK/Australia deadline for Saddam to disarm is Monday week, March 17. Howard could well tell us we’re about to declare war on Iraq in the face of world opinion and in defiance of the UN.

 

Latest reports state that Bush and Blair will give Saddam a list of weapons he must destroy or account for within six days to avoid an attack. Today’s Observer (Blair sets out final terms to avoid war) states:

Britain and the US are to publish a set of disarmament ‘trip-points’ detailing specific weapons in his arsenal that the United Nations has listed in a private report to the Security Council circulated this weekend. With the international community seemingly split on whether the Iraqi dictator should be given more time to comply with resolution 1441, British officials told The Observer that the targets would be based on the UN report by Hans Blix, the head of the weapons inspectors.”

… It was clear last night that the international community was facing the final make or break week on Iraq. In a desperate plea for more time, France said yesterday it would not support the resolution and made an official appeal for a summit of world leaders to discuss the looming conflict. Russia also said it was opposed to any resolution that ‘authorised war’.

…The British and US ‘trip points’ will be based on a summary draft of Blix’s UN report circulated by Number 10 yesterday. The document demands that Saddam:

* accounts for Iraq’s al-Hussein missile system and 50 Scud Bs which the UN says ‘may have been retained for a proscribed missile force’;

* explains the illegal import of 131 Volga engines for its al-Samoud 2 missile system and why Unmovic, the UN inspections team, had later found 231 engines and documentation for a further 150;

* accounts for and destroys 550 mustard gas shells and 350 R-400 bombs, which are capable of carrying chemical and biological weapons, which are still outstanding;

* reveals the whereabouts of 80 tonnes of mustard gas as well as VX, Sarin and Soman gas.

It is likely that the resolution will be voted on by the middle of this week. If Britain and America succeed in getting the nine votes needed to pass the resolution then Saddam would have until 17 March to comply. If he did not do so military conflict would begin soon after.

Unlike Tony Blair, John Howard has played a dangerous, contemptuous political game to avoid public discussion and debate. He won’t talk about joining the Yanks in a strike until the Council decides whether to authorise it. This cuts off any discussion of the role we’d play after regime change. Any chance of debate about our rules of engagement in the invasion are similarly cut off – we haven’t decided whether to go to war, so we haven’t signed off on them yet.

Both Blair and Howard say their goal is not regime change. That means they’re joining a war led by a nation whose objective they oppose. How can we invade Iraq them walk away from the responsibilities of the occupation? How can we invade without agreeing to the US occupation plans? How can it be acceptable to invade a country but take no responsibility for the aftermath? The world will hold us accountable for actions and events in which we play no part. Without a UN sanction, we will be outcasts in the world community and completely reliant on the United States for our security in a region which sees us as the enemy. No wonder Howard now wants us to join the US missile defence plan.

It looks like he’s signed up to the Bush national security strategy of a US free of the constraints of international law and the UN, doing what it like for what it perceives to be in its interests. He just never told us, that’s all. (The strategy is published in Manifesto for world dictatorship, and bears striking similarities to the strategy of the right wing think tank ‘Project for the New American Century’ discussed in A think tank war: Why old Europe says no.)

John Howard has already walked away from Kyoto with the US and he wants to walk away from multilateralism in trade too and tie us to the US through a free trade deal which could see our foreign ownership restrictions on Qantas, Telstra and Woodside.

Howard appears to have decided he’ll go all the way with the Bushies. We’ll be with em, whatever happens; we’ll say yes, whatever they ask. Howard will put us in the eye of the storm. We’re becoming the 51st State, yet Howard has told us nothing of this tumultuous change in our foreign policy. History did indeed begin for Australia on September 11, 2001.

Maybe Howard’s devilishly clever, but stifling debate before the war leaves him way open to trouble if things go wrong. A war without UN sanction would unite the ALP and Simon Crean would go for broke against the war. Vietnam revisited, except that this time public opinion would be behind the peacemaker, not the warmonger, as Crean would start his campaign with the majority of Australians backing him. Howard – without Labor or, if public opinion holds, the majority of Australians – would have the blood of Australian casualties on his hands alone.

A Howard decision to go in with the Yanks without UN endorsement would trigger the most important security debate in Australia we’ve had for a long, long time after a debate Howard refused to have. Compared to the UK, we are grotesquely uninformed about the ramifications of what we’re doing.

***

I recommend The Financial Times’ Bush’s future is in Blair’s hands by Linda Bilmes, who teaches public policy at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and was assistant secretary of commerce under President Bill Clinton.

She argues that Bush could not now go to war without Blair’s support, because it keeps US public opinion onside and the Democratic Party in check:

Opinion polls show popular support wavering for an invasion without international backing. Mr Blair’s stance allows the White House to maintain its “coalition of the willing” strategy, which will be politically essential if UN support is not forthcoming.

Second, Mr Blair is critical in maintaining bipartisan support for the war. He has a close relationship with Bill Clinton, the former president, and maintains a dialogue with likely Democratic contenders for the presidency, such as senators John Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina. Most Democrats see him as “one of us”. This is a powerful factor in the Democrats’ public acquiescence in Mr Bush’s tough line.

She also paints a chilling picture of the war’s timetable, saying Bush wants the war over and the mistakes fixed before the 2004 presidential election year.

More important still are Mr Bush’s sinking approval ratings on the economy. CNN’s latest poll shows his support at 53 per cent – down from more than 80 per cent after September 11 2001 (and 20 percentage points lower than Mr Clinton’s support on the day he was impeached). Popular support for his tax-cutting stimulus package is also weak. Sooner or later the domestic political debate will move away from foreign policy and focus on jobs and the stock market. The Bush team knows full well that an end to war uncertainty, rather than tax cuts, is the most effective way to boost the flagging economy and create a rally on Wall Street.

So an early – and quick – war is critical to fit with the US political agenda. By contrast, Mr Blair has no such constraints. If the war were postponed six months to allow more inspections, it would strengthen his political position at home, which has been weakened by the prospect of a war without UN approval. Should he opt to shift his stance – say, to play the role of honest broker who forges a consensus between the Americans and the Europeans – that would almost certainly thwart the administration’s ability to invade Iraq this month. It would also reopen the war as a live political issue in Washington. In short, it would be bad news for Mr Bush. Mr Blair is the pivotal operator in ways that even he may not fully appreciate.

So Tony Blair, the third way man with visions of a multilateral approach to Kyoto and other intractable problems only the world acting together can address, the man who said September 11 was an historic opportunity for the centre-left to take charge of the future, could – if the UN says no to war now and he accepts the decision – destroy the fundamentalist, unilateralist, neo-liberal right-winger in control of the world’s superpower and save himself. Who’d be Tony Blair today?

In his post-September 11 speech to the nation, Blair said:

This is an extraordinary moment for progressive politics. Our values are the right ones for this age: the power of community, solidarity, the collective ability to further the individual’s interests.

…The Kaleidoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux. Soon they will settle again. Before they do, let us re-order this world around us.

Today, humankind has the science and technology to destroy itself or to provide prosperity to all. Yet science can’t make that choice for us. Only the moral power of a world acting as a community, can. “By the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more together than we can alone”.

For those people who lost their lives on 11 September and those that mourn them; now is the time for the strength to build that community. Let that be their memorial. (Blair vision)

Is a US/UK strike on Iraq in defiance of the UN what Blair had in mind to build community? Will he save Bush’s skin – the man whose policies are inimical to progressive world politics? Will that be his legacy?

The Observer reports today that the British government has arrested an employee at the top-secret Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) in connection with the leak of an American ‘dirty tricks’ surveillance sting on Security Council members yet to declare their position on war:

Officials at GCHQ, the electronic surveillance arm of the British intelligence service, were asked by the Americans to provide valuable information from ‘product lines’, intelligence jargon for phone taps and e-mail interception. The document was circulated among British intelligence services before being leaked (observer). See also The spies and the spinner and UN launches inquiry into American spying.

Today, a piece in this week’s Jane’s Defence Weekly forwarded by Scott Burchill on doubts in defence and intelligence circles on the wisdom of war, and Tim Gillon comments on the authenticity of the email I published Friday from someone who says he’s in Australia’s SAS and that Howard had already committed SAS troops to war (A letter from the SAS?). To end, reader George Crones’ first piece for Webdiary, a dialogue with the young writer of a column in the Herald last week waxing lyrical about the school kids march against the war.

***

Scepticism mounts among defence and intelligence officials

David Mulholland, JDW Business Editor, London

Jane’s Defence Weekly, March 05, 2003

While Bush administration officials deride opposition to a war against Iraq as the usual “peacenik” reflex, Jane Defence Weekly sources say that dissenting views are now also coming from those who have traditionally supported military action.

Such opposition was witnessed on 26 February in the UK Parliament – one of the largest voting revolts in the past 100 years. It is also becoming clear that many military and intelligence officials in both the US and UK, who are not in a position to speak publicly, are deeply sceptical of the Bush administration’s apparent rush to war.

The fundamental questions of why now, and why Iraq, have not been adequately answered, intelligence, military and legislative sources in Washington told JDW.

Sources said that the Bush administration’s changing arguments for military action appear to confirm that none of them is sufficient to justify the use of military force.

One congressional source said that the arguments in favour of a war increasingly seem to be a “smokescreen” to hide the real reasons the administration is set on war.

Indeed, both the US and UK intelligence information supposedly justifying a war with Iraq raise serious questions. “[Chief of the UN weapons inspectors Hans] Blix’s criticism pokes holes in [US Secretary of State Colin] Powell’s intelligence,” said Joseph Cirincione, a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. “And the UK’s intelligence dossier was shown to be a complete fraud.”

A US military source said that Bush and his inner circle seem to be suffering from what is known in the Department of Defence as incestuous amplification. This is a condition in warfare where one only listens to those who are already in lock-step agreement, reinforcing set beliefs and creating a situation ripe for miscalculation. An illustration of this was Bush’s address to the American Enterprise Institute – a right-wing think tank in Washington – last Wednesday on why military action was required.

“President George W Bush’s speech on Iraq is significant, mostly because it reveals that he long ago made a decision for war and has always viewed the inspection process as an impediment to war to be overcome, rather than a means to avoid war,” said Doug Bandow, a senior fellow with the libertarian Cato Institute and former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan. “War was always his first option. The president paints a positive picture of post-war Iraq that is likely to prove wildly optimistic.”

Retired US Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni, former head of the US Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle East, said the administration is ignoring public reaction in the Muslim world about a US invasion of Iraq. In October he said: “Anti-Americanism, doubts about this war, concern about the damage that may happen, political issues, economic issues and social issues have all caused the [Arab] street to become extremely volatile. I’m amazed at people that say that there is no street and that it won’t react. I’m not sure which planet they live on because it isn’t the one that I travel. I’ve been out in the Middle East, and it is explosive; it is the worst I’ve ever seen it in over a dozen years of working in this area in some concentrated way. Almost anything could touch it off.”

Another former Reagan administration official said that Bush appears to be set on the course of action he has already decided because he is out of his depth and is unable to understand the nuances of the arguments that oppose an immediate war with Iraq. “He just doesn’t have the experience to be dealing with these issues.”

This may have to do with Bush’s seeming inability to change course in reaction to changing circumstances, a congressional source said. “With the exception of attacking Afghanistan in response to [11 September 2001], something that Bush had no choice about, he has not changed one iota of his agenda despite it being formed during a time of strong economic growth and a different perception of security threats.”

Most sources interviewed for this analysis agreed that the Bush administration has backed itself into a corner and cannot reverse course at this point. It has now put too much political capital into a war. Backing out now would likely wreck Bush’s image as a strong leader and focus the US voting public on the faltering US economy and the lack of appropriate policy initiatives.

“There’s no going back,” said Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “US credibility is on the line. The only possible outcomes now are either Iraq is disarmed or Saddam is deposed.” Cirincione said: “You can move a lot of stuff to the [Persian] Gulf without going to war, but once you start mobilising the [US Army’s] 101st Airborne, you are going to war.”

Several sources said that reports of special forces units being deployed to Iraq showed that real preparations for military action are already taking place. Many said that such actions do not take place until a decision to attack has been made.

Cirincione also said that war with Iraq was likely to be sooner rather than later because Bush’s popularity is drying up. “Backing for a war is falling,” he said. “Fifty-nine per cent are now in favour of giving the inspectors more time. That’s not very good considering that Bush has been focused like a laser on Iraq to the exclusion of all other foreign and domestic issues.”

Several sources said an attack would likely begin as soon as 14 March. O’Hanlon said that while there is a remote chance that action could be delayed until the autumn if there were enough pressure, ultimately an attack is inevitable because Bush’s self image would not allow him to change his mind.

2003 Jane’s Information Group

***

Tim Gillin in Sydney

I have a friend who is ex-SAS and an active member of the Australian commando and special forces veterans’ organisation. Last September he told me about meeting with SAS Afghan veterans who were quite critical of the performance of US CIA “cowboys” in Afghanistan. His uniformed informants said the CIA personnel provoked the prison uprising over there through their own unprofessionalism. This was well before media coverage of these events.

So the kind of critical views expressed in A letter from the SAS? do not strike me as unusual, although posting them to the press certainly is. The views are very similar to the opinions voiced by my veteran friend.

Similarly the discussion from your correspondent about the Australian SAS strategic recon skills twigs with what I have learned from my friend as well.

There is a myth that military personnel are all “gung ho” types. Most background books on the SAS, for example, describe the average trooper as intelligent and interested in world affairs, and widely read. Their is no reason to assume they live in some kind of warmongers’ hothouse.

In fact those leading the charge to war in Iraq more often than not seem to be denizens of civilian think tanks. In contrast, there has been a string of retired military leaders from the US, UK and Australia who have urged a more cautious approach. In fact one prominent and right wing US anti-war web site calls the current pro-war wave “The Attack of the Chicken-hawks” (antiwar).

Your correspondent’s use of the little known term “Dev Group” is interesting. This is the unit name for US Navy SEAL’s maritime counter-terrorist unit, a name that is not widely used in the media. I suppose the one hint of skepticism I have about your correspondent’s letter is not so much his viewpoint, but his use of the term “SAS”. This is more of a media than a military convention. The more common labels are SASR or ASAS. However he may have been using the more common usage.

***

For Whom the (School) Bell Tolls

by George Crones

A reply to Classroom struggle: school’s out for peace, unity and social justice by Lauren Carroll Harris in Thursday’s Herald (smh).

One thing I particularly admire about Webdiary is the level of informed argument that has taken place over the last few months about the situation in Iraq and the broader issue of the War on Terrorism. I have tried to maintain an open mind about both sides of the argument and am still in the process of making a decision as to which side I support.

I have generally refrained from making comments (other than supplying a few links of interest over the last week or so). However having read the opinion piece by Lauren Harris I felt it needed to be challenged on several of its points however. This is not a criticism of the anti-war position (which I am still deciding about) but rather a criticism of the demonstration and its “coverage” in Lauren’s article. If only Lauren had been reading Web Diary perhaps she would have done her position more justice!

I have included her text in bold italics, with my comments following.

March 5 was a historic day.

Yes it was. On March 5 in 1956 the United States Supreme Court upheld a ban on racist segregation in universities and schools. Now that is something worth celebrating.

Winston Churchill gave his Iron Curtain speech on March 5 in 1946. It is also the day that Joseph Stalin died in 1953 after 29 years in power. Its ironic that 50 years after his death, we witness a demonstration that effectively supports the continuation of another dictator.

Something tells me that March 5 will be better remembered for important events like this rather than a relatively small group of students missing an afternoons school.

It was the beginning of an international youth movement against war on Iraq.

Perhaps that is something better judged by history, but it certainly looks like it is going to be a short movement (if the movement exists at all). It might have been better for the organisers to set the movement up as against all wars that way at least they have something to do when the war in Iraq (if it happens) is over. I’m betting that the movement won’t last as it looks set to be a short war.

High school students, university students and other young people united to take a message loud and clear to world leaders: there is a better solution to this conflict, and we’re prepared to fight for it.

So the better solution is something worth fighting for? Hmmm.

The slogan? Books not bombs.

I am sure that world leaders – if they are even aware at all that a student protest occurred – are not going to be swayed by simplistic slogans such as this. I know I would be convinced if I saw someone carrying a piece of cardboard with a rhyming slogan written on it, but unfortunately I am not a world leader.

Students feel that the money which will be spent on the military would be better spent on upgrading educational facilities, public housing and hospitals. The Howard Government is unwilling to say just how much money will be devoted to the war, but it is sure to be in the billions. In comparison, $1.5 billion could restore public education funding to pre-1990 levels, or increase the number of available child care places by 10 times.

Ideally governments would have enough money for everybody to be kept happy. Governments make decisions about allocation of resources every single day and by their very nature some of those decisions could be wasteful. Depending on who you are and what you believe in you are obviously going to support some of these decisions and oppose others. Clearly, students have an interest in supporting increased funding for education.

Opposing the war in Iraq for the reason that it is going to cost money doesnt seem to be a particularly defensible position – at least morally – in light of this. Taking this argument to its extreme, then we probably shouldn’t have wasted money on East Timor either. Funnily enough I can’t recall too many people complaining about how much that cost us (or is still costing us for that matter).

History has unfortunately very rarely been without conflict of some kind. Whilst I am all for an end to military conflict, it is not particularly realistic and is different to saying that we don’t need a defence force. Whilst there are totalitarian regimes and dictators, we need the military. Whilst there needs to be peacekeeping forces sent around the world, there needs to be someone to send.

Ideally there won’t be a war. Saddam might voluntarily disarm, step down and go into exile, or he might be deposed by his own people. However if a war does eventuate and if we participate in it – a decision which John Howard already seems to have made without having the integrity to be upfront to the Australian people about it – then it would be more appropriate to estimate the costs after the event and not before.

The tactic? To encourage students to leave their classrooms, a walkout to show their opposition to Australian involvement in war on Iraq, UN sanctioned or not.

Students who are marching for or against something when the alternative is missing school are not particularly convincing. I would have been more convinced of their commitment to the cause if the protest had been on a weekend and they had to wear uniforms. Then at least you would know they were giving their own time up rather than just missing class.

As it is, taking an afternoon off from class to go wander through the city and wade in Hyde Park Fountain doesn’t strike me as showing opposition to anything but school. I will be following the NSW Education Department’s actions against those who missed school with some interest.

One thing that is confusing (and this is the case with most of the anti-war protests) is what everyone involved actually stands for. Thankfully Lauren has cleared things up nicely for me. Apparently, the protest was not actually about stopping the war in Iraq. Lauren and her fellow protesters have no problem with the US and the UK attacking Iraq (with or without sanction) – they just don’t want Australia to be involved. I would have respected the protest more if it had actually took a stance against the war, rather than just saying that they are happy for others to do our dirty work for us.

The reason for the protest? War is not the answer to terrorism…

Armed conflict by itself is definitely not the answer to terrorism. However, any war on terrorism is going to include conflict. If it were the only part then the war would be doomed to fail. To me fighting terrorism also means giving people access to things like education, health, welfare and basic freedoms – in other words winning the peace as well. If this happens then terrorist leaders will find it much harder to recruit people willing to kill and/or die for their causes in future.

(Incidentally, having access to these freedoms implies living in a democracy, which means that somehow or other regimes like that the one in Iraq have to be toppled.)

So far we have heard precious little about these things from George W Bush, which I find worrying. America has been good at resolving the military aspects quite quickly (and Iraq will probably be no different), but it is too soon to see how it does on everything else.

It would have been easier to accept that post-war Iraq would have a successful transition to democracy if the situation in Afghanistan was more settled by now (although I acknowledge that there are clear differences between the essentially secular regime of Saddam and that of the Taliban which make the situation harder to compare).

…and will only result in the senseless deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqis. Aid agencies, including Oxfam, estimate that 80 per cent of war casualties will be civilians. Many students carried handmade banners and placards with slogans like “No war for oil – not in my name” and “How many lives for a gallon of oil?”

There are innocent deaths all around the world every day, which is a terrible tragedy. This is something definitely worth fighting to prevent, and I am looking forward to the day when we have a wars on hunger, poverty, illiteracy and disease, rather than just a war on terror.

Whilst I don’t accept that there will be hundreds of thousands of casualties as a result of the war, I can accept that there will be some innocent civilians who are going to lose their life. I could even accept that the Iraqi soldiers are not exactly willing participants but have no choice in the matter given that they serve a dictator – they too could be seen as innocents (in the sense that any death diminishes us).

If the war in Iraq leads to the end of Saddam’s regime and the beginnings of a democracy then the Iraqi people will be much better off. Aside from an end to his brutality, a successful war (if there ever is such a thing) will also mean an end to UN Sanctions.

From what I can gather, since beginning after the previous Gulf War, the UN Sanctions have directly led to the deaths of between 500,000 and 1,000,000 Iraqis. Ending the sanctions means that these senseless deaths can hopefully be stopped. To me that is reason enough to go in and end Saddams regime. The UN has a lot of blood on its hands and it is time it started to make amends.

The students who attended were also protesting against other injustices and drawing links with other social issues. One speaker pointed out that refugees are the logical consequence of war, and that millions of Iraqis will be displaced. Another highlighted the plight of Iraqi women, questioning whether much will differ for them after a regime change.

Were the organisers of the protest clear and upfront to those who participated in the protest about what they were actually marching for? So far it has been about no Australian involvement irrespective of what anyone else does; war not being an answer to terrorism; innocent deaths in Iraq; refugees; and the plight or Iraqi women.

Some of these ideas seem to be contradictory. Not that a protest has to be about one thing only, but it should at least be consistent and people involved should know and agree about what they are marching for or against.

The mood? Passionate, exuberant, political and angry. Ten thousand young people filled Sydney with colour, music and chants as they marched from Town Hall to Hyde Park.

Ho hum. I have often wondered about the accuracy of crowd numbers at protests or events. I guess it is only natural for organisers to want their event to be seen as successful and, in the case of protests, this generally means bumping up the numbers who were present.

Yesterdays SMH reports that more than 3000 students mounted a rowdy protest, which I suspect is closer to the truth than the 10,000 suggested by Lauren. Not that that is unimpressive. Having 3000 students marching for something (assuming they know what it is) is worth taking note of.

Don’t belittle the importance of what you do by assuming that everyone will write you off if there aren’t huge crowds. (Having seen the number of people in attendance, it was impressive enough as is).

The demonstrators felt ignored and that their only choice was to vote with their feet by walking out of school and sending the urgent message: we have a war to stop.

So now the protest was about stopping the looming war on Iraq? I should have added that to the list above.

Many students remarked to me during the day that they had never seen anything like it. One University of Sydney student put it this way: “There are two superpowers in the world today – the US and the global anti-war movement.”

Well whilst the US is concerned with Iraq, perhaps the other superpower (*ahem*) could take care of North Korea for the rest of us.

The walkouts were likened to the mass moratoria against the Vietnam War in the 60s and 70s during a period of mass youth radicalisation. In short, the protest was an empowering celebration of unity in the face of international warmongering and a climate of increasing fear and hatred.

Well at least the “youth of today” feel empowered.

It is becoming clearer and clearer that the vast majority of young people don’t support this war. But the demonstrations on March 5 were only the tip of the iceberg of the mass anti-war sentiment that exists among our youth.

Not everyone supports the war, but that is a long way from suggesting that the vast majority don’t. If you arent careful, people will start to think you sound like a politician when you make that kind of claim. Next you will be saying that you have a mandate.

Since the start of the year, anti-war groups on high schools have blossomed, and more students have started to actively campaign in their schools against war. And these young people have the support of much of the broader community too. In the run-up to the demonstration, rally organisers received calls from parents who wanted to help their sons and daughters publicise the walkout by distributing leaflets and posters. Furthermore, some P&C Associations even encouraged students to join the demonstration.

Ah, I guess that is the mandate. I apologise for likening you to a politician when you clearly have the support of the people on this matter.

But the real question is: what are the next steps for the youth anti-war movement? In a move that contrasted sharply with the Australian Government’s commitment to war, despite overwhelming popular opposition to it, a proposal was put to the crowd as to whether another walkout should be called for 1pm, March 26 at Hyde Park.

Hmm, realising it isn’t that hard to get time off school, you then decided you want more time off?

Students voted enthusiastically and unanimously to protest again, and to take the campaign against war and racism back to their schools too. We hope that next time we are joined by other sectors of the anti-war movement – trade unions, teachers, parents, community figureheads and others.

I guess it is only fair that if students get time off everyone else should as well.

The demonstrations confirmed two things. This war is a cutting-edge issue in politics today and John Howard has failed to convince the majority of the population that Australia should be involved.

The demonstrations confirm nothing other than that there was a demonstration. Anything beyond that and you start to get into murky waters. Given that you can’t even decide what the protest was about, perhaps you should hold off claiming that you represent the majority of the population of Australia.

There is no democracy in this country until Howard submits to the will of the majority.

One of the wonderful things about living in a country like Australia is the fact that we live in a democracy unlike Iraqi. In a democracy you are allowed to express differing viewpoints to those held by the government of the day and you don’t have to worry about you or your family being taken away and tortured or shot unlike Iraqi.

If you disagree with John Howard (as many do) then feel free to protest and feel free to vote him out at the next election – unlike Iraq, John Howard doesn’t have 100% of voters in his country supporting him.

If you are looking for a pithy ending to your opinion piece then please don’t insult our intelligence and suggest that we don’t have a democracy in this country. Perhaps if you tried the alternative you might be better positioned to realise the difference.

A think tank war: Why old Europe says no

 

The arena of the angry bull. Image by Webdiary artist Martin Davies, www.daviesart.com

Reader Alun Breward writes: “I found this article on the website of German news magazine Der Spiegel this week. I thought it was one of the best pieces of journalism on the Iraq conflict I have read and so I translated it.” Thanks Alun! Here we go.

***

This war came from a think tank

by Jochen Boelschespiegel

It was in no way a conspiracy. As far back as 1998, ultra right US think tanks had developed and published plans for an era of US world domination, sidelining the UN and attacking Iraq. These people were not taken seriously. But now they are calling the tune.

German commentators and correspondents have been confused. Washington has tossed around so many types of reasons for war on Baghdad “that it could make the rest of the world dizzy”, said the South German Times.

And the Nuremburg News reported on public statements last week by Presidential spokesman Ari Fleischer to an inner circle in the US that war can only be avoided if Saddam not only disarms, but also leaves office.

Regime change is a condition that is in none of the barely remembered 18 UN resolutions. The Nuremburg News asked in astonishment whether Fleischer had made the biggest Freudian slip of his career or whether he spoke with the President’s authority.

It’s not about Saddam’s weapons

So it goes. Across the world critics of President Bush are convinced that a second Gulf War is actually about replacing Saddam, whether the dictator is involved with WMD or not. “It’s not about his WMD,” writes the German born Israeli peace campaigner, Uri Avnery, “its purely a war about world domination, in business, politics, defence and culture”.

There are real models for this. They were already under development by far right Think Tanks in the 1990s, organisations in which cold-war warriors from the inner circle of the secret services, from evangelical churches, from weapons corporations and oil companies forged shocking plans for a new world order.

In the plans of these hawks a doctrine of “might is right” would operate, and the mightiest of course would be the last superpower, America.

Visions of world power on the Web

To this end the USA would need to use all means – diplomatic, economic and military, even wars of aggression – to have long term control of the resources of the planet and the ability to keep any possible rival weak.

These 1990’s schemes of the Think Tanks, from sidelining the UN to a series of wars to establish dominance – were in no way secret. Nearly all these scenarios have been published; some are accessible on the Web.

For a long time these schemes were shrugged off as fantasy produced by intellectual mavericks – arch-conservative relics of the Reagan era, the coldest of cold-war warriors, hibernating in backwaters of academia and lobby groups.

At the White House an internationalist spirit was in the air. There was talk of partnerships for universal human rights, of multi-lateralism in relations with allies. Treaties on climate-change, weapons control, on landmines and international justice were on the agenda.

Saddam’s fall was planned in 1998

In this liberal climate there came, nearly unnoticed, a 1997 proposal of the Project for the New American Century (PNAC) that forcefully mapped out “America’s global leadership”. On 28 Jan 1998 the PNAC project team wrote to President Clinton demanding a radical change in dealings with the UN and the end of Saddam.

While it was not clear whether Saddam was developing WMD, he was, they said, a threat to the US, Israel, the Arab States and “a meaningful part of the world’s oil reserves”. They put their case as follows:

“In the short term this means being ready to lead military action, without regard for diplomacy. In the long term it means disarming Saddam and his regime. We believe that the US has the right under existing Security Council resolutions to take the necessary steps, including war, to secure our vital interests in the Gulf. In no circumstances should America’s politics be crippled by the misguided insistence of the Security Council on unanimity.” (clintonletter)

Blueprint for an offensive

This letter might have remained yellowing in the White House archives if it did not read like a blue-print for a long-desired war, and still might have been forgotten if ten PNAC members had not signed it. These signatories are today all part of the Bush Administration. They are Dick Cheney – Vice President, Lewis Libby – Cheney’s Chief of Staff, Donald Rumsfeld – Defence Minister, Paul Wolfowitz – Rumsfeld’s deputy, Peter Rodman – in charge of ‘Matters of Global Security’, John Bolton – State Secretary for Arms Control, Richard Armitage – Deputy Foreign Minister, Richard Perle – former Deputy Defence Minister under Reagan, now head of the Defense Policy Board, William Kristol – head of the PNAC and adviser to Bush, known as the brains of the President, Zalmay Khalilzad – fresh from being special ambassador and kingmaker in Afghanistan, now Bush’s special ambassador to the Iraqi opposition.

But even before that – over ten years ago – two hardliners from this group had developed a defence proposal that created a global scandal when it was leaked to the US press. The suggestion that was revealed in 1992 in The New York Times was developed by two men who today are Cabinet members – Wolfowitz and Libby. It essentially argued that the doctrine of deterrence used in the Cold War should be replaced by a new global strategy.

Its goal was the enduring preservation of the superpower status of the US – over Europe, Russia and China. Various means were proposed to deter potential rivals from questioning America’s leadership or playing a larger regional or global role. The paper caused major concerns in the capitals of Europe and Asia.

But the critical thing, according to the Wolfowitz-Libby paper, was complete American dominance of Eurasia. Any nation there that threatened the USA by acquiring WMD should face pre-emptive attack, they said. Traditional alliances should be replaced by ad-hoc coalitions.

This 1992 masterplan then formed the basis of a PNAC paper that was concluded in September 2000, just months before the start of the Bush Administration.

That September 2000 paper (Rebuilding America’s Defences) was developed by Rumsfeld, Cheney, Wolfowitz and Libby, and is devoted to matters of “maintaining US pre-eminence, thwarting rival powers and shaping the global security system according to US interests”. (RAD)

The cavalry on the new frontier

Amongst other things, this paper said, the USA must re-arm and build a missile shield in order to put itself in a position to fight numerous wars simultaneously and chart its own course. Whatever happened, the Gulf would have to be in US control:

“The US has sought for years to play an ongoing role in the security architecture of the Gulf. The unresolved conflict with Iraq provides a clear basis for our presence, but quite independent of the issue of the Iraqi regime, a substantial US presence in the Gulf is needed.”

The paper describes these US forces stationed overseas in the raw language of the Wild West, calling them “the Cavalry on the New American Frontier”. Even peace efforts, the paper continues, should have the stamp of the USA rather than the UN.

Gun-at-the-head diplomacy

Scarcely had President Bush (jnr) won his controversial election victory and replaced Clinton than he brought the hardliners from the PNAC into his administration. The old campaigner Richard Perle (who once told theHamburg Times about ‘gun-at-the-head diplomacy’) found himself in the key role at the Defense Policy Board. This board operates in close cooperation with Pentagon boss Rumsfeld.

At a breath-taking pace the new power-bloc began implementing the PNAC strategy. Bush ditched international treaty after international treaty, shunned the UN and began treating allies as inferiors. After the attacks of 11 September, as fear ruled the US and anthrax letters circulated, the Bush cabinet clearly took the view that the time was ripe to dust off the PNAC plans for Iraq.

Just six days after 11 September, Bush signed an order to prepare for war against the terror network and the Taliban. Another order went to the military, that was secret initially, instructing them to develop scenarios for a war in Iraq.

A son of a bitch, but our son of a bitch

Of course the claims of Iraqi control of the 11 September hijackers never were proven, just like the assumption that Saddam was involved with the anthrax letters (they proved to be from sources in the US Military). But regardless, Richard Perle claimed in a TV interview that “there can be no victory in the war on terror if Saddam remains in power”.

The dictator, demanded Perle, must be deposed by the US as a matter of priority “because he symbolises contempt for all Western values”. But Saddam had always been that way, even when he gained power in Iraq with US backing.

At that time a Secret Service officer from the US embassy in Baghdad reported to CIA Headquarters: “I know Saddam is a son of a bitch, but he is our son of a bitch”. And after the US had supported the dictator in his war with Iran, the retired CIA Director Robert Gates says he had no illusions about Saddam. The dictator, says Gates “was never a reformer, never a democrat, just a common criminal”.

But the PNAC paper does not make clear why Washington now wants to declare war, even without UN support, on its erstwhile partner.

A shining example of freedom

There is a lot of evidence that Washington wants to remove the Iraqi regime in order to bring the whole Middle East more fully under its economic sphere of influence. Bush puts it somewhat differently – after a liberation that is necessitated by breaches of international law, Iraq “will serve as a dramatic and shining exampled of freedom to other nations of the region”.

Experts like Udo Steinbach, Director of the German-Orient Institute in Hamburg, have doubts about Bush’s bona fides. Steinbach describes the President’s announcement last week of a drive to democratise Iraq as “a calculated distortion aimed at justifying war”.

There is nothing currently to indicate that Bush truly is pursuing democratisation in the region.

“Particularly in Iraq,” says Steinbach, “I cannot convince myself that after the fall of Saddam something democratic could take shape.”

Control the flow of oil, control your rivals

This so called pre-emptive war that the PNAC ideologues have longed for against Iraq also serves, in the judgement of Uri Avnery, to take the battle to Europe and Japan. It brings US dominance of Eurasia closer.

Avnery notes:

“American occupation of Iraq would secure US control not only of the extensive oil reserves of Iraq, but also the oil of the Caspian Sea and the Gulf States. With control of the supply of oil the US can stall the economies of Germany, France and Japan at will, just by manipulating the oil price. A lower price would damage Russia, a higher one would shaft Germany and Japan. That’s why preventing this war is essential to Europe’s interests, apart from Europeans’ deep desire for peace.”

“Washington has never been shy about its desire to tame Europe,” argues Avnery. In order to implement his plans for world dominance, says Avnery, “Bush is prepared to spill immense quantities of blood, so long as it’s not American blood”.

The world will toe the American line

The arrogance of the hawks in the US administration, and their plan to have the world toe their line while they decide on war or peace, shocks experts like the international law expert Hartmut Schiedermair from Cologne. The American “crusading zeal” that can make such statements he says is “highly disturbing”.

Similarly Harald Mueller – a leading peace researcher – has long criticised the German Government for “assiduously overlooking and tacitly endorsing” the dramatic shift in US foreign policy of 2001. He says the agenda of the Bush administration is unmistakable:

“America will do as it pleases. It will obey international law if it suits, and break that law or ignore it if necessary … The USA wants total freedom for itself, to be the aristocrat of world politics.”

Infatuated with war

Even senior politicians in countries backing a second Gulf War are appalled by the radicals in the White House.

Beginning last year, responding to the PNAC study, long-serving Labour MP Tam Dalyell raged against it in the House of Commons:

“This is rubbish from right wing think tanks where bird-brained war-mongers huddle together – people who have never experienced the horror of war, but are infatuated with the idea of it.”

Even his own leader got a broad-side: “I am appalled that a Labour PM would hop into bed with such a troop of moral pygmies.”

Across the Atlantic in mid February, Democrat Senator Robert Byrd (at 86 years of age the so-called “Father of the Senate”) spoke out. The longest serving member of that Chamber warned the pre-emptive war that the Right were advocating was a “distortion of long-standing concepts of the right of self-defence” and “a blow against international law”. Bush’s politics, he said “could well be a turning point in world history” and “lay the foundation for anti-Americanism” across much of the world. (Byrd’s speech is at A lonely voice in a US Senate silent on war.)

Holding the rest of the world in contempt

One person who is absolutely unequivocal about the problem of anti-Americanism is former President Jimmy Carter. He judges the PNAC agenda in the same way. At first, argues Carter, Bush responded to the challenge of September 11 in an effective and intelligent way, “but in the meantime a group of conservatives worked to get approval for their long held ambitions under the mantle of ‘the war on terror'”.

The restrictions on civil rights in the US and at Guantanamo, cancellation of international accords, “contempt for the rest of the world”, and finally an attack on Iraq “although there is no threat to the US from Baghdad” – all these things will have devastating consequences, according to Carter.

“This entire unilateralism”, warns the ex-President, “will increasingly isolate the US from those nations that we need in order to do battle with terrorism”.

A letter from the SAS?

Hi. George Bush’s final countdown press conference today threw up a statement I hadn’t heard before. He said:

“I’m convinced that a liberated Iraq will be – will be important for that troubled part of the world. The Iraqi people are plenty capable of governing themselves. Iraq is a sophisticated society. Iraq’s got money. Iraq will provide a place where people can see that the Shia and the Sunni and the Kurds can get along in a federation.” (The transcript of today’s press conference statement is at whitehouse.)

As recently as late last month the US promised Turkey it would not allow a federation in Iraq: “The guarantees are meant to ensure that an independent Kurdish State – or even an autonomous Kurdish entity within an Iraqi federation – does not emerge along Turkey’s borders after (a US invasion).”(charlotte)

This deal was made just before the Turkish Parliament vote, which unexpectedly went down. Is Bush’s mention of a federation a threat designed to get that vote reversed?

What next? Will the world cave in? Bush certainly thinks it still might. He said today:

“If you remember back prior to the resolution coming out of the United Nations last fall, I suspect you might have asked a question along those lines – how come you can’t get anybody to support your resolution? If I remember correctly, there was a lot of doubt as to whether or not we were even going to get any votes, much – well, we’d get our own, of course. And the vote came out 15 to nothing, Terry. And I think you’ll see when it’s all said and done, if we have to use force, a lot of nations will be with us.”

Is he right? Your predictions, please.

In the devilishly complicated set of arguments for and against invading Iraq, one of the big sticking points is the morality of the war.

The US didn’t pretend the war was about liberation at first. The anti-war movement focused on civilian deaths as a moral argument against war, to which the US and the UK replied that the Iraqi people were prepared to suffer casualties to be liberated, so it was a just war as well as a necessary one. But the US/UK (Australia just mouths whatever Bush and Blair say first) do not go the next step to argue that the war is BECAUSE it is just. Indeed, Bush said today he hoped that Saddam would disarm or leave the country, in which case he wouldn’t invade. No liberation there.

John Wojdylo has carried the just war argument in Webdiary, and he’s convinced me on that point. I’ve just published Against Human Rights in Iraq, where he berates Jack Robertson for checking out of his obligations as a member of Amnesty International to protect human rights:

Now some questions to Jack Robertson. In Controil, you explain why oil is strategically important, and assert that this is the only reason for American action worth knowing. But you have not explained why liberating Iraq, as well as stopping Saddam Hussein, which would be byproducts of the war, are not worth knowing, so you haven’t made the case against war.

You’re fixated on American projection of power. But if you believe in human rights – as you should, because of your position as a leading member of Amnesty International in NSW – then you should at least explain why the Iraqis are wrong when they say that the only way to improve human rights in Iraq is by getting rid of Saddam Hussein. The Iraqis want the Americans to invade, and they don’t care if the Americans control the oil afterwards. Why aren’t you putting the human rights of the Iraqis first?

I’ve also just published That Obscure Thing Called Reality, his reply to Iraqi Australian Zainab al-Badry’s plea for peace in Iraqi Australians: War splits a family.

We seem to be getting mixed up between the purpose of war and the effect of war. For me, John has won the argument about the morality of invading Iraq. He seems to be saying that it doesn’t matter what the reason for the war is if its effect is to liberate the Iraqi people. I can go along with that, provided there are guarantees the peace will also be just. There aren’t, at the moment anyway, and US history in the region gives no cause for complacency on the point.

But John’s point doesn’t mean Jack’s opposition to the war is wrong. In the end, it gets back to whether you think the war will help or hinder world peace. In the end, pro and anti war debaters are focused on this question, and the moral arguments for and against war are subsidiary. In other words, we’re all thinking real politic here, whether we’re for or against the war, and for or against Australian involvement.

I’d like John to address the question of whether war on Iraq is likely to make more people in the world free, and accorded more basic human rights, or less. If there’s a world war over this, if countries around the world are destabilised and strife breaks out, for example between the Kurds and the Turks, the Iranians and Muslim Iraqis, mightn’t the loss of life be more horrific than an invasion of Iraq?

This is a core disagreement between the United States and France. As Jacques Chirac said in his Time interview:

“I simply don’t analyse the situation as they do. Among the negative fallout would be inevitably a strong reaction from Arab and Islamic public opinion. It may not be justified, and it may be, but it’s a fact. A war of this kind cannot help giving a big lift to terrorism. It would create a large number of little bin Ladens. Muslims and Christians have a lot to say to one another, but war isn’t going to facilitate that dialogue. I’m against the clash of civilisations; that plays into the hands of extremists.”

The other core disagreement is about the role of the UN and the unilateralism of the US. The Washington Post today sets out the French case on this matter. An extract:

French See Iraq Crisis Imperiling Rule of Law

Concern Focuses on Future of International Order

By Keith B. Richburg

Washington Post Foreign Service

Thursday, March 6, 2003; Page A19

PARIS, March 5: As the Iraq crisis moves closer to war, France finds itself fighting a battle that officials see as far more important than what happens to a dictator in Baghdad. The issue now is the rule of law in international affairs and the danger that one country will exercise unchecked power over the world, French leaders say.

“There’s never been any doubt in our eyes that the Iraqi regime constitutes a threat to peace in the region and beyond,” Alain Juppe, leader of President Jacques Chirac’s ruling party, told Parliament last week. But he added: “Only the United Nations has the legitimacy to decide on the use of force to enforce its resolutions.”

In recent weeks, France has led resistance at the United Nations and in world forums against U.S. pressure to begin war against the government of President Saddam Hussein. Today its foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin, issued a new challenge to Washington, coming together with his counterparts from Russia and Germany to declare that their governments will block a pro-war resolution in the U.N. Security Council.

“This is not about Saddam Hussein, and this is not even about regime change in Iraq or even the million people killed by Saddam Hussein or missiles or chemical weapons,” Pierre Lellouche, a legislator who is close to Chirac, said in an interview. “It is about what has become two conflicting views of the world.

“It’s about whether the United States is allowed to run world affairs and battle terrorism and weapons proliferation essentially with a small group of trusted allies,” or whether many nations should have a say, he said.

***

I received this email today from ‘Brian Dabeagle’, who says he’s an Australian SAS officer. I have no idea if it’s genuine – perhaps readers with knowledge of the SAS can give me their judgement. Brian sent this email to Bob Brown and me:

I am a currently serving soldier in Australia’s Special Air Service Regiment (SAS) and believe me it has taken weeks, if not months of agonised soul searching as I have tried to decide whether to make my views public or not.

As you can understand, if my identity is revealed, my career (in a job that I love) is finished and as such I have taken some steps to protect my identity. However, some of the information that is in this email is not on the public record (but not vital to operational security) and can be checked to confirm my bona fides. I write this because I am sick of John Howard and the Federal Government’s lies about our position re Iraq and our role within the coalition.

By the time that you read this, it is quite possibly too late to influence the outcome of events regarding our involvement, but at the very least maybe one of you guys may have the courage to make the public a little more aware of what really is happening regarding our (the SAS) role in this conflict.

John Howard stated that we had only recently started preparing for this looming conflict. Bullshit! We, that is, 1 SAS Squadron (please refer to it as One SAS Squadron, not 1st SAS or anything else) were given orders to prepare for a war with Iraq around July 2002.

The Australian Special Air Service Regiment was specifically asked for by US planners after they had observed our performance in Afghanistan, where we demonstrated a capability that had been neglected by other Special Forces units who until recently had deemed it obsolete. Our skills in what is termed Strategic Reconaissance (SR) are unsurpassed by any other Special Forces unit in the world. This includes other so called Tier 1 (a system of rating free world Special Forces units devised by the yanks – Tier 1 being the highest rating) units, including the Brit SAS, US Delta and US Dev Group units.

What happened was we were initially deployed into areas deemed ‘clean’ by the coalition as we were viewed by the US command as really just a token gesture made by the Australian Government (as was our deployment to Kuwait in 98). We were also viewed as an ‘unknown’ quantity as our last real operational deployment working with the yanks was Vietnam. But, because we had maintained the skills of remaining ‘behind the lines’ for much longer periods without resupply or external support, we started to find things that had remained un-noticed by the coalition. Taliban & al Qaida forces started to reappear in the areas we operated in, thinking the area was secure. And, we started to find things that had been missed by the coalition as they passed through. Our discoveries led to some of the coalition’s biggest successes and suddenly the US planners started to realise that we were providing a service that they no longer had the capability to provide AS EFFECTIVELY.

Consequently and as a result of our operations in Afghanistan the relationship between the Australian SAS and our US counterparts is closer than at any time in our history. It is because of our ability to provide a service to the US effort that CANNOT be as effectively carried out by US forces that we were specifically asked for by the Pentagon right at the start of planning. Our role in this conflict is crucial to the outcome and there is no way that we can be taken out of the conflict without seriously affecting the US operational capability. Our planning was at such an advanced stage that whilst the parliamentary debate was raging, we were already into advanced planning of specific targets (not just general planning, but actual targets and operations) … quite contrary to what John Howard was stating. Without going into too much detail (for obvious reasons) what we will be doing is absolutely vital to the successful prosecution of the war. There is no way we are going to be withdrawn. This is nothing like Kuwait in 98, back then we were “untested” in the eyes of the yanks, now we are crucial to their plans.

So why am I sending you this? Because I am proud to be a professional soldier (not a nazi as I felt on the Tampa) and relish the job that I do, but I am concerned that as a human being that the war we are about to embark on is wrong. As important is the fact that I think that Howard is pandering to the will of that redneck Bush, without considering the long term consequences of this action, not just for Australia but for the whole world. He is lying to Parliament, he is lying to the people of Australia and no doubt he will lie to the dependents of any of us who don’t come back. This Government has a history of the latter as Kylie Russell, Jerry Bampton and the next of kin of the Blackhawk disaster can attest to.

As I mentioned at the start of the email, I think that maybe it is too late to do anything to affect our deployment, but at least if the truth as to our build up and deployment is made public, maybe it will give the parliament and the people of Australia food for thought.

 

***

Scott Burchill recommends Britain’s dirty secret in The Guardian. It begins:

A chemical plant which the US says is a key component in Iraq’s chemical warfare arsenal was secretly built by Britain in 1985 behind the backs of the Americans, the Guardian can disclose.

Documents show British ministers knew at the time that the 14m plant, called Falluja 2, was likely to be used for mustard and nerve gas production.

Senior officials recorded in writing that Saddam Hussein was actively gassing his opponents and that there was a “strong possibility” that the chlorine plant was intended by the Iraqis to make mustard gas. At the time, Saddam was known to be gassing Iranian troops in their thousands in the Iran-Iraq war.

But ministers in the then Thatcher government none the less secretly gave financial backing to the British company involved, Uhde Ltd, through insurance guarantees. Paul Channon, then trade minister, concealed the existence of the chlorine plant contract from the US administration, which was pressing for controls on such exports. He also instructed the export credit guarantee department (ECGD) to keep details of the deal secret from the public.

The papers show that Mr Channon rejected a strong plea from a Foreign Office minister, Richard Luce, that the deal would ruin Britain’s image in the world if news got out: “I consider it essential everything possible be done to oppose the proposed sale and to deny the company concerned ECGD cover”.

The Ministry of Defence also weighed in, warning that it could be used to make chemical weapons. But Mr Channon, in line with Mrs Thatcher’s policy of propping up the dictator, said: “A ban would do our other trade prospects in Iraq no good”.

Scott also recommends Independent Iraqis oppose Bush’s war in The Guardian.

Iraqi Australians: War splits a family

Hi. No movement on the impasse, so we watch the growing turmoil around the world and wait until the war begins or our ‘leaders’ find another way.

On Monday in Unreal Reality, I asked if the Iraqi people really did want to be invaded to be free, and quoted Webdiary’s only Iraqi contributor, Zainab Al-Badry, who wrote last September:

Like any Iraqi, nothing is dearer to my heart than to live long enough to witness the day my country and my people are set free from this dictator and his regime. However, can anyone blame us if we do not trust the US and back its efforts to oust Saddam? I have been in Iraq during the Gulf war and witnessed how the American troops abandoned my people and left them to the mercies of Saddam and his thugs. Why would I trust the US again? I have no doubt now that the US wants to get rid of Saddam – what I don’t accept (and indeed I find it insulting to my intelligence) is someone telling me (or the whole world for that matter) that the US is doing so for all the good reasons in the world, or that oil is a “secondary factor”. Would the US or any of its allies send their armies and incur all those heavy expenses if Iraq didn’t happen to float on oil?(Saddam’s will to power)

Zainab was inspired to reenter the debate, and detail a split in her family on the question:

I am still here and alive (God only knows how). I haven’t stopped following the Webdiary, in fact I became addicted to it, however I chose not to write for more than one reason. First, what’s the point? No matter how much we said and did, the ‘super power’ of the world had made its mind and there is no way back.

Second, I feel I am restricted by my ‘limited English’ – I can never put my thoughts in words the way I want them.

And third, to my deepest appreciation and relief , I often find that there are many many people who can and are expressing very similar opinions to mine on Webdiary.

However, I feel now that I have to say something as an Iraqi, views which are shared by everyone I know here except my husband!! But I will come to that later. I just want to remind everyone who is advocating war as the one and only solution that for decades the Iraqi people have suffered under this regime. Millions of Iraqi as well as non-Iraqi people have been tortured or died for one reason only, and that is to to keep Saddam in power because he served the West’s and especially the US’s interests. And now, just because he is not good enough for them any more, the Iraqi people have to pay the price again with their lives to get rid of him. Now how fair is that?

You wanted to know what the Iraqi people think of this coming war. For myself I believe that since I live here so far away from my country and enjoying the freedom and security of this wonderful society I have no right in imposing my views on them. Yes, I lived there for 31 years and all my family is still there but also I’ve been away for the last eight years. I haven’t shared their miserable lives and harsh circumstance (things are only got worse since I left back in 1994).

I oppose this war because I cannot comprehend the outcome – for me the ends do not justify the means in this case. Saddam must be removed but I cannot accept the horrible price that my people have to pay for it. Mind you I am fairly sure that most if not all the Iraqi people there see this coming war as their only chance for freedom, but also bear in mind that a sinking person clings to any straw to save his life.

People in Iraq do not see any of the consequences of this coming war except it might give them their freedom. Their death and the destruction of their country is a side issue for them – they are used to wars, they’ve been living in a continuous war for the last 23 years. Ask any one of them and the most they would say is, ‘What more could happen to us? If I die who cares, death is freedom?’

For us here it is different. We know the full story, we are exposed to the whole picture, we live in a democracy where, as you very rightly said, we elect our leaders to find solutions, not to demand them from us. If the only solution our leaders can come up with is war, then God help us.

I know many people will jump at me and say, ‘What is the alternative if we don’t go to war?’ I don’t know, but I do know that the masterminds who put Saddam in power and kept and fed him for all those years are surely capable, if they are willing, of coming up with a different solution to spare people’s lives.

Lastly, it makes me really sad to see my husband as one of the people who thinks that war is the only solution, not because he accepts wars but because he sees no other way to get rid of this regime. And that’s where we differ. As I said, I’m sure there is another solution. The problem is ‘they’ don’t want it.

***

I received this from a friend today on the state of play in Turkey. The idea of American pressure to reverse a vote of Parliament is frightening. Surely it risks the Turkish people turning to a more fundamentalist Islamic party than the moderate regime now in power? I hope this isn’t true:

The following is from a message from a Turkish colleague: You must have heard about the refusal of the Turkish Parliament to deploy US troops to attack Iraq. The usual mechanisms (bribery, threat, blackmail) are under way to revert the decision. This morning I received a message from a colleague who has attended a teleconference organised by Moody’s Turkish banks. In the conference Moody’s EXPLICITLY demanded the revert of the decision, OR ELSE the credit rating of Turkey would be decreased. They were also functional in triggering the 1994 crisis here. Stephen Little, Manchester.

Today, a report on how South America views the war from Australian journalist Miriam Taylor in Columbia. Then Brian Bahnisch’s predicts the aftermath of war and Justin Bell argues that containment is the only ‘solution’.

To begin, Scott Burchill sends this piece from today’s The Guardian and asks: “Where is the federal government’s legal advice?” He’s referring to the government’s constant claim that it has a “different view” to the vast majority of legal experts that a unilateral US invasion of Iraq would be illegal, and to the question of whether the US-sponsored second resolution would authorise war.

I’ve experienced the government’s attitude to legal advice before, and it’s rancid. During the Wik debate, the overwhelming majority of legal experts wrote opinions and gave evidence to committees that the Wik bill was racially discriminatory and in breach of the Racial Discrimination Act. The government said it had contrary advice but steadfastly refused to reveal it. Attorney-General Daryl Williams intervened in the Senate committee process to ban the Australian Law Reform Commission giving evidence on the matter. Finally, a scrap of the government’s advice was leaked. It did not back the government line, but still Williams refused to release the advice. The government releases legal advice when it suits, refuses when it doesn’t, and has no compunction in lying about the advice it has. On at least one matter of national importance, it refused to brief its top legal officer, then Solicitor-General Gavan Griffith QC, because it feared the advice it would get. On this, as in many matters, this government has proved itself utterly untrustworthy.

Fresh resolution ‘gives no authority for war’

Matthew Tempest, political correspondent

Wednesday March 5, 2003

The Guardian

 

Tony Blair’s political dilemmas over a possible military attack on Iraq increased today, with reports that the government’s attorney general may resign if Britain goes to war without clear authorisation from the United Nations.

Legal opinion varies on the basis for war under resolution 1441, but yesterday Cherie Booth’s own legal chambers, Matrix, advised there was no authority for war without an unambiguous fresh resolution.

Now it has emerged that there are fears within the government’s legal service about the exact provisions of international law for a US-UK attack. The attorney general, Lord Goldsmith, has already flown to Washington on an unpublicised trip to discuss the legal ramifications with the US attorney general, John Ashcroft.

Lord Goldsmith’s job is to advise ministers on the legality of all their actions, but his office has refused to divulge his opinion on a future war with Iraq. This morning he was forced to deny to the Financial Timesrumours that he may resign if bombs are dropped without a second UN resolution.

His office is quoted as saying this scenario was “not something he recognises”, but the FT quotes an unnamed mandarin as saying: “Civil servants are meant to respect the law. There will be lots of resignations from the government legal service. Lord Goldsmith could go.”

The FT reported last year that the attorney general warned the cabinet any war designed primarily to remove Saddam Hussein would be illegal. However, the defence secretary, Geoff Hoon, said last week he was unworried by the legal debate.

He said: “As a lawyer myself, I have always taken the view that if the law was so clear, you wouldn’t need my profession. So I accept there are going to be differences of legal opinion.”

Yesterday the Green party, CND and the Campaign Against the Arms Trade obtained a ruling from Matrix chambers that the draft wording of the US-UK second resolution – that Iraq had “failed to take the final opportunity” of 1441 and the UN remained “seized of the matter” – was not sufficient authority for military action. It has already argued that resolution 1441 does not in itself constitute grounds for war…

***

Recommendations

Simon Mansfield recommends defenselink, a US department of defence briefing, with slides, on “U.S. military practices and procedures to minimize casualties to non-combatants and prevent collateral damage during military operations”.

Max Phillips: “If the UN Security Council vetoes the US attack on Iraq and the US still makes its war, there is one measure that UN can still take – under a procedure called “Uniting for Peace” the UN General Assembly can demand an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal.” There are no vetoes available to any country in this motion, just a straight vote by all members of the UN. Such a procedure has happened 10 times, notably in response to the 1956 Suez invasion of Egypt. See zmag.”

***

Activism

The planned US invasion of Iraq has sparked what might be the world’s biggest mobilisation of artists against the war – film and stage actors and directors, painters, documentary makers, you name it. Yesterday was the international day of poetry against the war. Brian McKinlay recommends poetsagainstthewar.

Lesley Pinson sends this request from the moveon group:

We’ve launched an emergency petition from citizens around the world to the U.N. Security Council. We’ll be delivering the list of signers and your comments to the 15 member states of the Security Council on THURSDAY, MARCH 6. If hundreds of thousands of us sign, it could be an enormously important and powerful message – people from all over the world joining in a single call for a peaceful solution. But we really need your help, and soon. Please sign and ask your friends and colleagues to sign TODAY at moveonemergency.

We can stop this tragedy from unfolding. But we need to speak together, and we need to do so now. Please ask your friends, family, colleagues, acquaintances – anyone you know who shares this concern – to sign on today. As the New York Times put it, “There may still be two superpowers on the planet: the United States and world public opinion.” The Bush Administration’s been flexing its muscles. Now let’s flex ours.

Denise Parkinson: “There’s a WOMEN FOR PEACE march and rally on Sunday 9th March, an action endorsed by the Walk Against the War Coalition. If you can, bring an empty stroller to symbolise the Children of Iraq facing death and devastation in this catastrophic war. 2.00 pm: peaceful assembly of women of Sydney, including women with children and women with empty strollers, at the Parade Ground, Government House, Botanic Gardens. Enter by Garden Gates, immediate left of the Conservatorium, Macquarie St.”

***

Oiled by Distance

by Miriam Taylor in Bogota, Columbia

Iraq is a long way from South America, both in distance and in culture. Yet, the link between many South American nations and the USA is the same as for Iraq. Oil.

Colombia and Venezuela have high oil production, and succour transnational oil companies. Venezuela competed with Arab nations in oil output until the Chavez Presidency induced massive strikes in the industry.

National and international oil companies pay substantial amounts of money to the large armed revolutionary groups in Colombia, Venezuela and Bolivia, to keep the oil lines free of bombs. The Canon Limon oil line of Occidental Petroleum in Colombia suffered 200 bomb attacks in 2001. The bribe dollars buy armaments to fight governments supported by the USA. Look at Iraq and Afghanistan.

Two Colombian television and radio networks blatantly calculate the financial benefit for the oil industries of South America should the USA attack Iraq and destroy their oil production. The oil industry is pragmatic. War on an oil nation is good news for them.

Many military and social aid dollars flow into South American nations, particularly Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia. The money comes from blocs which support intervention in Iraq – principally the USA and the European Union. You don’t bite the hand that feeds.

The voices of these governments support any USA strategy, but it is a silent consent. The mainstream press of South American countries report the daily thrusts of the intervention plan as if through a veil, being mostly non-committal and if critical, then gently so. However, their enthusiastic reportage of the recent world-wide anti-war protests sparked many editorials in support of peace.

Venezuela is struggling to meet its promises to resume oil exports to the USA. Chavez, who sees himself as the second Bolivar, does not resile from condemning the imminent war on Iraq, seen by the Venezuelan press as a fait accompli.

The Bolivian government of President Sanchez de Lozada is beset by a different intervention, that of the International Monetary Fund. The Bolivian cabinet is falling apart under the weight of massive pressures, including that of increasing its oil exports to the USA. Its media are too obsessed by these concerns to be troubled by the parallels with Iraq.

The Argentinian President Duhalde is similarly beset, but this week he openly criticised the IMF’s role in Bolivia’s current hardships. Argentinian editorials call on the EU to take a stand for what is morally right, non-intervention. A tinge of the same sentiment runs through Brasilian newspapers.

Chile’s left-wing papers call for courage from the EU to stand against a USA-led war on Iraq. They state what the other national medias imply, that this is an oil war, nothing more, fueled by Bush.

Given the long histories of Spain and Portugal in this continent, South American media look to their former colonists for their stances on any international issue. The equivocations of the EU are seen as the last light of hope in preventing the war on Iraq.

As I write this, I am listening to one of the national Colombian talk-back radio shows. The last caller said, “La paz por toda la vida” or ‘Peace for all living, all our lives’. Wearied by 40 years of war the people on my streets here in Bogota say leave Iraq in peace.

***

Brian Bahnisch in Brisbane

The invasion will happen – Bush and co won’t pack up and go home and their troops apparently ‘degrade’ rapidly if left out in the desert. I’m told heat doesn’t matter, as initially it will happen at night when there is no moon ie later this month. After the initial blitz the word is that medium force will be applied and it will take about 2 months.

Now here’s the downside. Iraq may well prove ungovernable, terrorism will be greatly boosted and the risk of dispersal of WMDs into the hands of terrorists in the chaos after ‘victory’ will be overwhelmingly high.

Prior to all that, however, there is a fair bet that Saddam will actually kill a few hundred thousand Iraqis with WMDs either directed at the advancing enemy or actually directed at his own people. This is in addition to the civilian casualties, refugees and displaced people inside Iraq from the ‘friendly’ fire.

Saddam is likely to set the oil wells on fire. Each one needs to be put out separately and whereas in Kuwait each took about 2 or 3 days, in Iraq each could take about 2 to 3 weeks, according to the experts. If this happens the environment will be seriously fucked with oil entering the groundwater in the Mesopotanian basin.

Under these circumstances ‘muscular containment’ is the only ethically acceptable way to go. Therein lies a huge problem, because the Yanks are the only ones who scare Saddam, and if they don’t attack they may just go home. That is why in the end they will attack.

Nevertheless, I should have a suggestion on what to do without the Yanks, but I really do have to go and cut grass. Old ladies are depending on me! Sorry!

***

Justin Bell

I am an Aussie graduate student living in Seattle. This is my go at tying together the emotional American cultural impetus behind Bush administration policy.

There are four general strands apparent in arguments about Iraq that cut across traditional left-right ideological lines.

The pro-war left argues that the war will liberate the oppressed peoples of Iraq and permit democracy. The anti-war left argument says the war will kill more people than Saddam and that war is primarily about liberating oil for the United States.

The pro war right argument as developed by the Bush administration started with the argument that after 9/11 it is too dangerous to leave the world’s worst weapons in the hands of the world’s worst dictator, and has since tacked on a sort of nouveau domino theory in reverse – that the implementation of democracy in Iraq will inevitably lead to a more stable Middle East.

The anti war right argument applies the tried and true economic rationalist cost benefit analysis to the problem and suggests that all but the most optimistic projection of war and its aftermath will mean a net downside for the US.

Both the left and right versions of the pro war implementation of democracy positions are flawed because there is insufficient weight given to the interconnectedness of church and state in all Arab nations. None are democracies in the secular, Western sense, but all harbour populations bristling with deep-seated distrust, jealousy, anger and religious intolerance toward the the US.

An overarching unilateralist democratic imperialism doctrine that propounds the imposition of democracy in Iraq has much in common with the thinking behind the discredited domino theory that saw the US send William Calley, Agent Orange and carpet bombing to Vietnam in a vain attempt to save that country and impose democracy.

Saddam has none of the romantic appeal of Uncle Ho, but the critical failure of both theories lies in the attempt to apply an overarching geopolitical theory to a particular nation and leader without adequate consideration of the appeal of nationalistic sentiment and each leader’s capacity to harness such sentiment. Both the domino theory and the nouveau domino theory are drawn from US policy making that has a tendency to see issues in black and white terms; Communism v Democracy; Despotism v Democracy.

The suggestion that Iraqis will welcome American troops is misguided when you consider Saddam’s capacity to appeal to nationalistic sentiment. Any leader able to launch and maintain an offensive war against a neighbour that lasted 10 years, incur horrendous casualties, and then persuade his military to take on 28 allied nations in 1990-91 is a leader with a proven ability to appeal to nationalistic sentiment.

While it is true that the Iraqi military was overrun in the first Gulf War, it is not true that Iraqi units refused to fight. Many elements of the Iraqi army fought very hard – and not just Republican Guard elements. In Gulf War Redux, we ought to expect nothing less – and neither ought we impute the stupidity to our foe that is implicit in suggestions that the military will be overrun again.

Saddam learnt from his mistakes in the war with Iran. He has had 12 years to ruminate about tactical mistakes made in the first Gulf War. This rematch will not be fought on battlefields that favor American technological superiority – it will be a bloody urban mess.

As for the ‘worst weapons, worst dictator’ argument, this is the foundation for a position that because Saddam or other dictators could possibly give weapons to terrorists, the US has no choice but to remove Saddam and his ilk from power. There are at least three responses:

1. The logical extension of this strategy would see the global cop US busting down the doors of all countries that could possibly give weapons to terrorists. Countries such as Libya; Iraq; North Korea; Iran; Cuba, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan etc would be on this list. If the criteria is any dictator that COULD give weapons to terrorists, then the list of countries to invade is very long indeed, as would be the casualty lists for the US military and the draft lists that would be needed for replacements.

2. If the aim of the policy is to prevent WMD getting into the hands of terrorists, there is no reason to restrict the policy to dictators who may put WMD into terrorist hands. There would also need to be pre-emptive elimination of any person who could do so. This class of persons is wide indeed – members of the Russian military with questionable personal lives, religious Pakistani generals etc. The ramifications of implementing such a wide ranging global cop policy could include a withdrawal of international co-operation with broader US foreign policy or law enforcement, as the policy gives no quarter to namby-pamby considerations of respect for national sovereignty.

3. The consequences of broad pre emptive invasions would be a terminal case of imperial overreach, bringing about the precipitous decline of an American empire bankrupted by loss of financial, human and political capital. No American ally (and the word has a looser meaning of late precisely because of the overreaching, impractical nature of proposed Bush administration policy) would go along with such a policy. As it stands, the US has a very isolated coalition of the willing that does not even include Canada, or a single nation with a population that is behind this war – and this is before it has invaded Iraq.

In a textbook world, with an assumption of unlimited US military resources and unlimited international goodwill for the US, the pre-emption policy might be worthwhile. The US has neither unlimited military resources, nor does it have an inexhaustible reservoir of international goodwill. The failure of the world’s worst rationale for action is that it incorporates an simplistic and unrealistic view of American power – a belief that America can just invade the Middle East and not suffer blowback in terms of terrorist consequences and America’s aspirations to world leadership.

However the anti-war left argument it is facile, though well meaning. This position is a sandwich of gullibility and pacifism, with a healthy pinch of conspiracy theory. It would be great if everyone decided that there would be no more wars, but outside the confines of the EU there are nasty little tinpot dictators like Saddam.

Given the militaristic history of humanity we can’t cling to the hope that we will see an end to war in this millennium. The ‘No blood for oil’ mantra is just another way of saying no war, ever. Saddam has demonstrated no compunction in engaging in war for material gain, as he did in the invasions of Iran and Kuwait. The logical extension of the no blood for oil argument would be to allow Saddam take any of his neighbour’s oil fields.

The close ties between the present administration and the oil industry are a matter of public record. Although its ham handed and incompetent foreign policy and playing domestic corporate favorites give us no reason to love the Bush administration, there are no grounds to see an overt conspiracy between the administration and the oil industry to divvy up Iraqi oil in the wake of an invasion, not least because they know there will be so many left leaning detectives looking for such a conspiracy.

However, the Christian fundamentalist background of the president and of his administration, combined with ties to the oil industry have led the President and the US into the error of seeing the Iraq issue in stark black and white, good v evil terms, and has caused Bush to overestimate the relative benefit to the US of freeing up Iraqi oil compared to the costs of invasion.

That leaves us with the economic rationalist anti war argument that, after weighing the potential costs and possible benefits, it’s just not worth it. Projections for the pure money cost of the war vary between $60b and $400b. The human cost will likely be far greater than the toll exacted on 9/11. Unless we imbue Iraqi soldiers with a hitherto unknown passion for democracy, and their leaders with the stupidity that would be a necessary concomitant of again taking defensive positions in the desert, we are about to enter into a bloody, dirty urban warfare scenario. This means American, British and Aussie soldiers dying in Baghdad – not hundreds, but thousands of body bags. This will occur unless the US decides to impose democracy in Iraq by razing Baghdad to the ground.

The costs to America’s capacity to lead world opinion will start with the complete dismantling of a Western accord with Europe and with serious, even permanent damage to the US alliance with the UK. President Sheriff Bush has sidled up to the international poker table and, calmly trusting in his faith, has risked all of America’s political capital and alliance chips in a game where the potential payoff will be to the elimination of the two-bit player Saddam Hussein.

Other costs will be the unintended consequences of striking the invasion match in the powder keg of the Middle East, including the facilitation of the very consequences the US hopes to avoid – use of WMD by Saddam, the sparking of a wider Arab-Israeli war, or dissemination of WMD to terrorists by, for example, religious fundamentalists within the Pakistani government.

Faced with what religious fanatics will no doubt perceive as unholy American intermeddling in Arab lands, is it not logical to expect such fanatics in positions of power to aid terrorist organisations to strike back at America? This scenario is at least as likely as the domino theory in reverse situation where the Middle East would become a terrestrial sea of tranquillity in the aftermath of a US invasion.

What would be the benefits? The only real benefit that one could point to would be the removal of Saddam from power. Chances are his successor would be a more polite international citizen. The administration regularly cites Saddam’s support for Palestinian terrorists, and this would be eliminated after Saddam were removed from power. However, most Arabs do not see Palestinians as terrorists, they see them as freedom fighters.

That leaves us with what to do with Saddam – deterrence or containment. Neither option is particularly appealing. Both options are better alternatives than a unilateral US/UK/Australian invasion.

For cultural reasons, Americans have been sold by the can do attitude of the Bush administration, because an American believes it unpatriotic to do nothing in response to a threat. Unfortunately, the costs of doing this something will be much worse than the continued attempt to contain Saddam within the framework of a loose international coalition.

This invasion is the ultimate in fuzzy foreign policy – a policy driven by emotions of fear, anger and exasperation at having been smoked out of an isolationist stance by 9/11. Unilateral invasion of Iraq is a policy that would never have been seriously considered pre- 9/11, and since there is no credible link between al-Qaeda terrorists and Iraq, there ought not to be an invasion now.

Unreal reality

Now Turkey says no! This people power thing is really picking up steam.

Today, your thoughts on the state of play.And again, sorry in advance if your piece hasn’t got a run – I’m overwhelmed with war emails and can’t even read all of them. If I’ve missed a pearler, please resend.

I’ve been thinking about John Wojdylo’s statement that the Iraqi people want to be liberated, regardless of the cost in human life. Is this true? Some refugees exiles seem to think so, although they, of course, aren’t at risk, and others are against the war. The only Iraqi voice so far on Webdiary is Zainab Al-Badry, who wrote in Saddam’s will to power last September:

“Like any Iraqi, nothing is dearer to my heart than to live long enough to witness the day my country and my people are set free from this dictator and his regime. However, can anyone blame us if we do not trust the US and back its efforts to oust Saddam? I have been in Iraq during the Gulf war and witnessed how the American troops abandoned my people and left them to the mercies of Saddam and his thugs. Why would I trust the US again? I have no doubt now that the US wants to get rid of Saddam – what I don’t accept (and indeed I find it insulting to my intelligence) is someone telling me (or the whole world for that matter) that the US is doing so for all the good reasons in the world, or that oil is a “secondary factor”. Would the US or any of its allies send their armies and incur all those heavy expenses if Iraq didn’t happen to float on oil?”

If John is right, then there is a moral case for war. It’s hard to imagine a people wanting to be invaded to be liberated, but after reading John’s several pieces on Saddam’s brutality, I can believe it. But we would need to be sure it’s true before we’d go in, and you’d think the Iraqi people would want some assurances that civilian casualties would be minimised.

The ten most read Webdiary entries in February were:

1. Disrobe to disarm, Feb 4

2. Anti-Gravity and us, January 28

3. Murdoch: Cheap oil the prize, Feb 13

4. Sydney walks in numbers too big to ignore, Feb 16

5. The D’hage report, Feb 16

6. Spiders spread in all directions, Feb 20

7. Do you believe George Bush? Feb 27

8. Collecting the debris, Feb 3

9. Waiting for war, Feb 10

10. Shroud over Guernica, Feb 5

The top five referring websites were dailyrottenclothesfreeyahoonewsantiwarmovementtimblairblogspot and whatreallyhappened.

Correction: I stuffed up the other day when I said I couldn’t link to the Wall Street Journal for John Howard’s comment piece called ‘You Can’t ‘Contain’ Saddam’. The link is wsj

Recommendations

Daniel Frybort: “I’m a big fan of Webdiary and your bold, straightforward style and this is the first time I’ve written you. I wanted to recommend this article in The Observer – proof that the US government is spying on and bugging the smaller security council members to gain influence in their decision on the Iraq decision. It shows the sly underhandedness of the US government, trying to gain information illegally at the same time as bullying these countries with economic might. I think this story should come out as loud as possible – it’s not often the NSA puts their foot in it and leaks a significant spying story like this.” Revealed: US dirty tricks to win vote on Iraq war – plus the full text of the leaked memo.

Lynette Dumble: “Michele Landsberg’s latest column in the Toronto Star is another of her gems: Highlights the abysmal failure of US-designed operations in Afghanistan; provides viewing details for the premiere of Sally Armstrong’s latest documentary The Daughters of Afghanistan (CBC Newsworld at 10 PM, Sunday March 2); and offers some excellent advice to one of Bush Jnr’s media lapdogs, The National Post, re the oily motivations of American wars in Central Asia and the Middle East. star.

Peter Kelly: See latimes for the Russia angle. It’s an example of how the coalition of the “willing” is built. Coercion, bribery and blackmail – all the qualities of “freedom”.

George Crones: Here’s something for everyone to keep track of no matter what their position is on the looming war: iraqbodycount. Not sure how accurate it will end up being, but it is an interesting concept.

Scott Burchill recommends Michelle Grattan’s piece A powerful group of advocates! on the personnel of a new backbench committee to spin for Howard on the war.

Sarah Moles recommends William Rivers Pitt’s Blood Money, which sets out the ideological underpinnings of Bush’s speech last week.

Jon Moore: “Here is an interesting little quiz for your readers edification that was sent through the Quaker Peacenet by an American Quaker (jesuschristians).”

Do you know enough to justify going to war with Iraq?

1. What percentage of the world’s population does the U.S. have? 6%

2. What percentage of the world’s wealth does the U.S. have? 50%

3. Which country has the largest oil reserves? Saudi Arabia

4. Which country has the second largest oil reserves? Iraq

5. How much is spent on military budgets a year worldwide? $900+ billion

6. How much of this is spent by the U.S.? 50%

7. What percent of US military spending would ensure the essentials of life to everyone in the world, according the the UN? 10% (that’s about $40 billion, the amount of funding initially requested to fund our retaliatory attack on Afghanistan).

8. How many people have died in wars since World War II? 86 million

9. How long has Iraq had chemical and biological weapons? Since the early 1980’s.

10. Did Iraq develop these chemical & biological weapons on their own? No, the materials and technology were supplied by the US government, along with Britain and private corporations.

11. Did the US government condemn the Iraqi use of gas warfare against Iran? No

12. How many people did Saddam Hussein kill using gas in the Kurdish town of Halabja in 1988? 5,000

13. How many western countries condemned this action at the time? 0

14. How many gallons of agent Orange did America use in Vietnam? 17million.

15. Are there any proven links between Iraq and September 11th terrorist attack? No

16. What is the estimated number of civilian casualties in the Gulf War? 35,000

17. How many casualties did the Iraqi military inflict on the western forces during the Gulf War? 0

18. How many retreating Iraqi soldiers were buried alive by U.S. tanks with ploughs mounted on the front? 6,000

19. How many tons of depleted uranium were left in Iraq and Kuwait after the Gulf War? 40 tons

20. What according to the UN was the increase in cancer rates in Iraq between 1991 and 1994? 700%

21. How much of Iraq’s military capacity did America claim it had destroyed in 1991? 80%

22. Is there any proof that Iraq plans to use its weapons for anything other than deterrence and self defence? No

23. Does Iraq present more of a threat to world peace now than 10 years ago? No

24. How many civilian deaths has the Pentagon predicted in the event of an attack on Iraq in 2003? 10,000

25. What percentage of these will be children? Over 50%

26. How many years has the U.S. engaged in air strikes on Iraq? 11 years

27. Were the U.S and the UK at war with Iraq between December 1998 and September 1999? No

28. How many pounds of explosives were dropped on Iraq between December 1998 and September 1999? 20 million

29. How many years ago was UN Resolution 661 introduced, imposing strict sanctions on Iraq’s imports and exports? 12 years

30. What was the child death rate in Iraq in 1989 (per 1,000 births)? 38

31. What was the estimated child death rate in Iraq in 1999 (per 1,000 births)? 131 (that’s an increase of 345%)

32. How many Iraqis are estimated to have died by October 1999 as a result of UN sanctions? 1.5 million

33. How many Iraqi children are estimated to have died due to Sanctions since 1997? 750,000

34. Did Saddam order the inspectors out of Iraq? No

35. How many inspections were there in November and December 1998? 300

36. How many of these inspections had problems? 5

37. Were the weapons inspectors allowed entry to the Ba’ath Party HQ? Yes

38. Who said that by December 1998, Iraq had in fact, been disarmed to a level unprecedented in modern history? Scott Ritter, UNSCOM chief.

39. In 1998 how much of Iraq’s post 1991 capacity to develop weapons of mass destruction did the UN weapons inspectors claim to have discovered and dismantled? 90%

40. Is Iraq willing to allow the weapons inspectors back in? Yes

41. How many UN resolutions did Israel violate by 1992? Over 65

42. How many UN resolutions on Israel did America veto between 1972 and 1990? A: 30+

43. How much does the U.S. fund Israel a year? $5 billion

44. How many countries are known to have nuclear weapons? 8

45. How many nuclear warheads has Iraq got? 0

46. How many nuclear warheads has US got? Over 10,000

47. Which is the only country to use nuclear weapons? The US

48. How many nuclear warheads does Israel have? Over 400

49. Has Israel ever allowed UN weapons inspections? No

50. What percentage of the Palestinian territories are controlled by Israeli settlements? 42%

51. Is Israel illegally occupying Palestinian land? Yes

52. Which country do you think poses the greatest threat to global peace: Iraq or the U.S.? ????

53. Who said, “Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter”? Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr

***

Mr M Mercurius in Summer Hill NSW

Words or deeds? How activist are Web Diary readers and writers?

Webdiarists (and, I presume their readers) seem to me a pretty impassioned, committed lot, at least on paper. But I would like to know what else Webdiarists do to pursue the positions they espouse through other forms of activism? This is not to belittle the written word, as writing to Webdiary is a public act and a form of activism in itself. Rather, I am interested to know how we complement our words with action.

This question arises from a personal belief that, if I hold a particular view, I should take practical steps to back it. I should get my hands dirty, lest Paddy McGuinness brand me a member of the chattering classes. And I am active on a range of issues, although not in the high-profile, public manner of marches and speeches. I prefer grass-roots activities and I espouse the think global, act local philosophy. I hope that the little contribution I make as an individual improves the world a little, and makes my life more meaningful than just being a passive receptacle for events.

Activism can take many forms, some public, like marches or writing to Webdiary. Others require privacy and secrecy to be effective. I cite the French Resistance or the so-called underground railroad that smuggled Negro slaves out of southern U.S. states.

Activism can also be more, or less, direct. There are direct forms, like lobbying, working in a soup kitchen, or chaining yourself to a tree. Then there are less direct forms, like donating to causes you like, sponsoring a child through a program, etc.

Would other Webdiarists like to share how they pursue their causes and why they think the particular form of activism they take is worthwhile? I’m not asking you to out yourself as belonging to any particular group or lobby, especially if this would compromise the effectiveness of what you are doing – merely hoping you will describe whether (and how) you back up your Webdiary writings with other kinds of action. Conversely, if you don’t act, why not?

I would like to return to this point, via a meandering path that touches on the arguments of Why the peoples instinct can be wrong. (An aside – congratulations to John Wojdylo and David Makinson on their latest contributions. They are always must-reads for me and I find myself agreeing with about 95% of what both have to say, so I don’t know why they continue to find themselves in conflict)

A reflection on John W’s piece. Of course the people can be wrong, nobody ever said they were infallible. A person is clever, but people are stupid. I delight in the quote of the unknown statesmen of ancient Athens, who asked “Have I said something foolish?” upon being cheered by the crowd!

But seriously, there is the inherent danger for a democracy to become in effect a tyranny of the majority. The simplistic idea of majority rule is indistinguishable from might makes right. The Westminster system anticipates this risk, which is why our democracies are so successful, so lasting, so garrulous, so prone to delay, so susceptible to lobbyists, splinter-groups and farce. Because we dont allow a simple fast-track of whatever the people want.

Now to illustrate what the people might do with the knowledge they are, or were, wrong. The German people, for example, have taken ownership of how wrong they were from 1933-1945. Their ability to recognise, own and remain mindful of their wrongdoing finds its physical manifestation in the Holocaust Museum.

There is yet to appear in Australia any comparable edifice to house the Australian peoples recognition of our own First People. The National Museum of Australia comes closest, but even now is facing review and downsizing of its indigenous peoples display. How long will it take to heal this amnesia in our national psyche?

And although I did not join the anti-war marches, largely for the reasons outlined by John W, I nevertheless rejoice that so many Australians marched for anything at all. I delight in the unruliness and untidiness of popular activism, because I find it preferable to a passive and inert populace, and the clinical hyper-rationalism of modern political discourse. I want to see as many people marching, reading, writing and acting as possible, on as many issues as possible, especially if I disagree with them, because such is the vigour on which our democracy thrives. I will always march or write or act in opposition if I disagree.

Existentially, the only way to know if something is worth doing is to ask yourself whether it would still be worth doing even if nobody else ever knew about it. This automatically excludes all public forms of activism (including writing to Webdiary), but it reaches to the heart of the private, personal choices we all make on a daily basis. From the soft-hearted anonymous donations we make from our comfortable homes, to the bravery of political prisoners who suffer torture and die because they wont give up their cause, yet are utterly forgotten by the outside world.

The whole edifice of human rights has been centuries in the making, and is comprised of countless unknown and unsung actions by forgotten individuals. Only by acting to preserve and add to this inheritance can we honour their deeds. Now, which brick in this wall are you?

***

Alan Kelley

Your comment piece in Incompatible Values seems to be incompatible with reality. Some time ago, those who currently control US policy decided that they wished to attack, invade and then either occupy Iraq or set up a compliant regime. The American forces will be accompanied by those of its two vassal states, Britain and Australia.

The UN is almost certainly unable to prevent this action, but to endorse it, I believe, would be folly.

If the Security Council does give the seal of approval to the US invasion of Iraq it will change nothing. It will still be the US invasion of Iraq. The military will not be under UN control. The war will be no kinder. There is no reason to think the number of dead will be fewer. The fact of UN compliance will do little to minimise or placate the Arab response.

And the ability of the UN to materially influence what the Americans do afterward will be minimal. Your What if? in relation to the idea of trading UN support for war with a genuine US support for a Palestinian state is simply fanciful, and your confidence in the Bush speech rather naive.

For a succinct comment on that I’d refer you to Robert Fisk’s latest, America Uses Israel’s Words To Justify Occupation.

It’s essential that what happens next should be seen by the World and by history as America’s war and Blair’s war – and, to the extent that the atrocious little man is actually remembered by history, John Howard’s war.

***

Daniel Maurice

What do I think og George Bush’s speech? I don’t think Bush Jnr is any brains trust, but the left liberal view of him as evil, mad and/or a creature of his dad’s Texas oil cronies is also overblown.

Is the world better of with a dominant power or not? It depends. For all its faults the US is a startlingly open and vibrant political, economic and cultural system (which is why it got to be the world power it is today in the first place). I think that having the USA as the dominant global power is better than just a gaggle of pint size nation states which will always be a rabble of conflicting self interests and back-room deals when it comes to dealing with major international issues.

I’d also vastly prefer an American superpower to a world dominated by the old Soviet Union or Nazi Germany or modern day China, India, Britain, France or any Islamic state (the latter because of Islam’s subjugation of women and its aggressive and profound intolerance of other societies and values).

Clearly Bush is articulating an heroic and ambitious view of a post-Saddam world because of the international community’s sceptical response to earlier arguments put for Saddam’s removal, as well as the perceived need to counter the loopy left’s paranoia about his (and the USA’s) “real” agenda. The latter will, of course, never change their views as they are blinded by self-righteous hatred of their political opponents.

However I’m prepared to take at face value that Bush truly does want democracy and liberation for the Iraqi people and that he perceives the opportunity for a change in Iraq to provide a circuit breaker in the Israeli/Palestine conflict. Could this happen? Yes, but you wouldn’t put money on it.

The strength of the Jewish vote in the US (combined with a lingering sense that the West “owes” the Jews because of their extraordinary suffering in WW2), the absolute intransigence of both Israel and the Palestinians/Arabs and the legacy of atrocities on both sides makes it just about impossible to see how this problem will be solved for generations.

But this is not a reason to resile from military action against Saddam. I agree with Bush that any realistic outcome of such action will leave ordinary Iraqis (and the world generally) better off. There is no alternative, unless you believe in fairy stories, and I don’t.

Finally, I thought that Bush’s remarks were very powerfully crafted. Depending on how things go in Iraq, I share your assessment in Bush vision that it truly could become one of the defining speeches of the new century.

***

Rod Lever

Do we not see that George W Bush is simply dumber than dumb? He is being played for a sucker by Saddam. The longer those 250,000 troops hang around the Gulf with nothing to do the more it’s costing the US and the more restive and bored they will become. He has to start the war, and soon. The moment he does trouble will break out elsewhere, probably Afghanistan. A massive assault on Kabul, say, by the re-emerging warlords.

But by then Bush will have lost all his credibility and world opinion will have hardened even more against the US. Osama bin Laden announced in one of his audio tapes a while back that his next assault would be on the US economy. A fine way to do this is to split his war machine and make him keep moving it around the world. This is not to say that Osama and Saddam are necessarily working together. They just have similar objectives.

***

Chris Munson

So the US topples Saddam and relaces him with a “friendly” government. then what? What happens afterwards when there is an internal uprising, or the Iraqis vote for a non secular government? Will the US continue to impose the standards it espouses today?

As a beginning of the New World Order, the “Alliance of the Willing” or “Fellowship of the Ring” will install freedom and a new government (but perhaps not democracy) in Iraq after it removes Saddam from power.

But I wonder, what does the Fellowship do, when another Iraqi political or military group topples the new leadership in one or two or five years time – Does the Fellowship invade again?

The argument of “change of government for world peace” simply cannot hold up over time. They (or we) cannot forever topple governments which are judged by remote western standards as being “unjust” or “belligerent”, or perhaps The Fellowship may simply not like that country for assisting rebellious groups, just as Cuba, Libya and China assisted Nelson Mandela.

I also wonder which country is next? Perhaps The Fellowship will continue along the axis of evil, and then settle all the other contentious world issues. No, I don’t think so, not while Israel still refuses to comply with 20 or so UN orders and the US stands back and says nothing.

But now, I’ll stop wondering for a while, because I think there may be another reason behind this Iraqi invasion scenario. I’ll let you know when I find proof.

***

Barry Preston in Europe

It was France who supplied all the tech’ know-how for Iraq’s nuclear ambitions 20 years ago at Tamuz. All Saddam’s neighbours must be bloody happy that Isreal broke all the rules by blowing it to pieces. The French are still waiting to be paid millions of dollars by Iraq! That’s why Chirac is keeping sweet by vetoeing the any new UN moves: He hopes Saddam will appreciate the French treachery and pay the long overdue bill.

***

Colin McKerlie in Perth, Western Australia

As usual the compliant media has avoided insight in favour of sensation and compliance with their bosses in the “analysis” of what is happenning in Iraq. While the ridiculous comparison of Saddam to Hitler is daily repeated, the more apt role model is carefully ignored.

There is no modern leader more like Saddam than Tito, and Tito’s Yugoslavia is the historical forerunner of what is about to play out in Iraq. Of course Tito ruled Yugoslavia during an age when world leaders were trying to avoid wars rather than start them, so he was left alone.

For forty-five years, Tito ruled Yugoslavia with an iron fist, and so successful was his rule the before he died Western tourists were making the economy of Yugoslavia viable. Once his iron grip was lost, the ethnic divisions which had been kept in check were quickly inflamed.

There are now four armies based on ethnic groups in Iraq either already in the country or waiting in Iran for the opportunity to sweep into Iraq and take power in the chaos which will follow an American invasion. Only a fool would have any hope of peace in post-war Iraq.

If Saddam Hussein is deposed by an American invasion, Iraq will be plunged into a decade of warfare which will make the bitter wars in the Balkans look tame. The weekend’s debacle at the Arab League meeting shows us there is no Arabic NATO to control what will happen in Iraq.

The Americans have almost never taken on the role of peacekeepers in any country. They put troops into Somalia, until they took a few casualties, and they did take control of Granada and Panama, but those tiny dots of countries are nothing like an ethnically diverse Iraq.

Tito was never portrayed as an “evil dictator” by the West, but a dictator he was and his capacity for brutality demonstrated during the War against the Germans and the Chetniks was what gave him the power to rule an artificial country created by the great powers, just like Iraq.

While in every other country on Earth, groups like the Kurds in the north or the Shia armies already in Iraq or on the Iranian border would be declared terrorist groups, the new universal tag for the people many would still call freedom fighters. But in Iraq, America arms them.

It is interesting in itself trying to find words for the Axis of Anglo Evil now formed by the three countries willing to launch an illegal invasion of Iraq. Exactly how do you characterise this group. You can’t call them “Western” or “English speaking” or “NATO” or even “Anglo”.

America, Britain and Australia constitute a very strange little group that defies classification, not because of any characteristic they share, but because so many other countries refuse to join them. There are many Western, English-speaking, Anglo countries who aren’t there.

But then, if you take Canada out – polluted by all those French Canadians, and if you leave out Ireland and New Zealand – too small to matter, and if you regard South Africa’s English speaking status as questionable, given all those Afrikaaners, “Anglo” is about right.

We are very close to creating a situation where all the hatred and all the terror which will be generated by an invasion of Iraq will be focussed on the three Anglo countries which now have troops in the Gulf. Being Australian is going to become a very dangerous status.

We are going to be at the centre of the great revival of racism in the 21st century. Being white, speaking English, with a Union Jack on our backpacks, Australians make exceptionally easy targets. Being an Aussie will become like being an Israeli. Bombings will become standard.

***

Tony Kevin

To the Ambassadors to the United Nations of France, Russia, China, UK, Bulgaria, Cameroun, Guinea, Mexico, Syria,Angola, Chile, Germany, Spain, Pakistan: Email dated 3 March 2003 from former Australian diplomat Tony Kevin.

Your Excellencies:

Very large numbers of Australians do not support Prime Minister John Howard’s reckless and unthinking support for the US and UK preparations to make war on Iraq. We do not believe the case for war has been made.

A design fault in a missile allowing it to make a strategically irrelevant 33 km overflight beyond the UN-permitted 150 km range is a derisory pretext for a war that will kill 500,000 Iraqi people and render 900.000 homeless. The stated political objectives of this war are not comrnensurate with the huge human suffering it will bring to the Iraqi people, which cannot be compensated by any restitution afterwards. One does not make peace through making war. The risks to our own children’s security will be greatly increased if Australia takes part in this unprovoked aggressive war.

Such views are shared not only by ordinary respectable Australians of all ages but also include leading community figures like former Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser, retired senior Australian military leaders eg former chief of the defence forces General Peter Gration, retired former senior diplomats like former Foreign Affairs head Richard Woolcott and former ambassadors Richard Butler, Ronald Walker and myself, and senior members of Mr Howard’s Liberal Party. There is a remarkable consensus against this war spanning all parties and war veterans’ groups, that I have not seen in my lifetime and I am 60.

The UN Security Council must maintain the integrity of its responsibilities under the Charter. If this unprovoked aggression goes ahead no country will be safe from great power bullying in future. I am no defender of Saddam’s regime but the UNSC must look to its global responsibilities for peace and security. Please advise your governments not to be browbeaten by the US and UK into giving any kind of endorsement to this war. Stand firm on the wisdom of the UN Charter, and make these powers wear the full opprobium of being aggressors in this war. The precedent is vital for world peace in future.

And please understand that the Australian Ambassador Mr John Dauth, who I am sure is doing a diligent professional job of lobbying your Excellencies in support of the Anglo-American position under Mr Howard’s instructions, does not represent the majority views of the Australian people.

I have no doubt – and opinion polls in Australia support this – that if there was a referendum on whether Australia should join an Anglo-American attack on Iraq without a clear UNSC endorsement, the referendum would produce a decisive No vote. There is still time for sanity to prevail. Please urge your governments to stick to the UN principles and defend the only international system of peace and security that the world has.

As to my credentials, I was Australia’s First Committee (peacekeeping and disarmament) representative at the UN from 1974 to 1976, under Ambassadors McIntyre and Harry . For the first year, Australia was on the Security Council. I was an Australian diplomat for 30 years and retired honourably in 1998, after six years as Ambassador to Poland Czech Republic and Slovakia, and finally to Cambodia.

***

Max Phillips

Disclosure: Max is a member of the greens

You wrote: “The thought of a US attack without UN sanction scares me to death. I’m desperate for a resolution to this nightmare which doesn’t split the free world, gives Muslim nations cast iron assurances that it’s not a war on Islam and that the US isn’t guilty of appalling double standards, and reassures the Iraqi people that freedom is a real prospect.” (Do you believe George Bush?)

I think the problem would be if the UN rubber stamped a US attack (which most intelligent, openminded person – not necessarily the great vacilators of Webdiary – must agre is unjustified and aggressive). If the UN capitulated to US bullying then it really would lose its credibility (exactly the opposite of what Bush’s doublespeak!), especially in the eyes of the Islamic populations.

As for the “free world”, I’m not sure what that is? Sounds like a simplistic Dubya propaganda phrase. Perhaps he’s referring to the masters as opposed tothe slaves?

The great irony is if the UN actually stops the Anglo imperial war it might actually strengthen its role and importance!

Check out the background of your beloved Blair’s Spanish friend at Aznar: Bush’s Best Friend in Continental Europe. Not very pretty. I guess today’s holocaust deniers and “reformed” facsists are also the saviours of democracy and human rights? An extract:

Aznar himself is a son of a prominent Francoist family and during the fascist dictatorship was a member of the fascist party. When democracy was reestablished in Spain, Aznar advocated against approving the new Democratic Constitution. In the right-wing press, he once criticized the Basque town of Guernica (destroyed by Nazi aviation, as immortalized in the Picasso painting that carries its name) for renaming its main square: newly democratic municipality changed the name from Caudillo Franco’s Square (the name every Spanish town had to give to its main square during the fascist regime) to Liberty Square. Aznar accused the Guernica municipality of revenge. He wanted the main square to retain Franco’s name and Franco’s statue. Aznar has never condemned or even criticized the Franco regime, and his cabinet also contains several ex-members of the fascist party – who also have never denounced that regime.” (Margo: For an analysis of why the UN took down Picasso’s Guernica masterpiece on the horrors of war before Colin Powell addressed the security council, see buzzflash.)

Our conscience is not sabotaged

 

The last laugh. Image by Webdiary artist Martin Davies. www.daviesart.com

Hi. Today, responses to John Wojdylo’s attack on the motivations of peace marchers in Why the people’s instinct can be wrong. Contributors are Simon Ellis, Peter Funnell, Michael Chong, James Woodcock, Michael Grau-Veliz, Paul Walter, David Palmer and Peter Woodforde.

John’s claim that popular opinion on the war and on boat people are both borne of denial of the “other” is a challenging one. Many protesters, in my view, are with minority opinion on boat people and detention policy, stressing humanitarian concerns, universal human rights, and compliance with international law. Their stance is consistent. Why have others joined them? I think it’s partly about the Australian instinct for isolationism. To build Fortress Australia against boat people, then want to fight a war a long way away against a nation of no direct threat to us is a contradiction for many.

I also think that, perhaps paradoxically, the Bali bombings increased opposition to the war. Australians saw and felt the horror of indiscriminate mass violence against their own people, innocents all, creating empathy for the fate which awaits Iraqi civilians when the war begins. They want to avoid being a part of inflicting harm on innocents if at all possible. They also fear becoming a higher priority target for terrorism in our region if we invade Iraq.

To begin, Webdiary poet Michael Chong wrote this poem after hearing “John Howard’s latest demonstration of “How to piss off one million people with short sentences”.

Sabotaging conscience

by Michael Chong

‘kiss my ass, take it to the president’ Charles Bukowski in ‘I cannot Stand Tears’

Field Commander Howard

his face grows soured

as he stares down

into the crowed streets.

“These marchers’ hands will not salute

and their feet do refute

the order of my

drummer boys’ beats.”

*

So the Commander himself moves

to the spot with a higher view

and then unleashes

his world-famous megaphone.

He shouts of certain harms

in refusing his call to arms

as he casts upon the rowdy sinners

his first stone.

*

This march of objection

Howard accuses of collaboration

With the enemy’s aforesaid

murderous ways.

But that’s no way to interpret

a situation so delicate.

And besides this is what

the marching people say.

*

“Often we’re left to accept

democracy’s alleged effects

and ask whither

our conscience withdrew.

But at time such as it is,

future obscured by debris

mere show of hands

just will not do

*

We fear that your current mission

of spreading bombs and salivation

will not be executed

as planned or as conspired

And it will not do to deduce

that justice will issue

from cannons that are meant for

issuing of fire

*

Those held hostage

to the Tyrant’s chemical rage

will not be rescued

but simply evicted.

Just as choices of participation

in war and in litigation

are seldom offered

but always inflicted.

*

So we’ll not hear you criticise

the fitness of our hearts’ eyes.

Compassion’s aim, you know

is always true.

Our conscience is not sabotaged

and our passions are not overcharged.

Honour is erected upon reason

of many not just a few”

***

Simon Ellis

Like many of your readers I’ve just finished a couple of hours struggling through and trying to comprehend John Wojdylo’s latest epic, but this time I was struck by a fundamental change in his analysis – a new and almost manic edge to his reasoning.

I’ve always seen John’s pieces as credible attempts to build up an intellectual argument to support his hawkish stance on a particular issue, and despite the fact that I disagree with him at the most basic of levels, he has won my grudging respect through his unassailable use of logic and reason.

His latest effort, however, falls far short of the mark, and is a prime example of how an acute intellect can sometimes betray its owner.

John appears convinced that he alone has the clarity of thought to see the ‘real’ intentions of the protesters, or at the very least that he alone is able to understand the true nature of the mass demonstrations around the world. John has seen through the anti-war movement’s self-delusion and is now trumpeting the same contradiction in terms that our political masters seem so fond of – that it is the peace marchers, not the war-mongers, who are plunging this world into conflict.

Does he realise how ridiculous this argument is? Is he so caught up in the complex mental gymnastics that he’s had to put himself through in order to justify his pro-war position that he can’t see what is right there in front of his face?

I think so. I think that the very intellect that has served him well in the past has got him so caught up in assumptions, and counter arguments, and rationalisations that he can’t see the fundamental truth – which is that he is in denial.

John denies that the protesters ‘understand’ what they’re doing. He denies that the majority of Australians do not support his position by assigning trivial motivations to their actions. But most of all he denies the very message of the anti-war movement – because to recognise it would be to introduce an absolute counter-argument to his position, and that is not John’s style.

So John, allow me to clarify a couple of points for your benefit:

1.The anti-war movement doesn’t support Saddam Hussein – period. As much as you and your political namesake would like to believe that it does (because it allows you room to re-claim the moral high ground) it just doesn’t. Opposition to a war on Iraq does not equate to support for the dictator who runs the country. Duh.

2. The fact that Saddam interprets the demonstrations as ‘support’ is irrelevant. It is like arguing that those who oppose the death penalty should shut their mouths because the murderer on death row is interpreting their opposition as implicit support for his innocence. What would you suggest the anti-war movement do John? Keep quiet as a mouse in case an insane tyrant interprets their ‘anti-war’ message as support? Geez mate – get real.

3. The anti-war movement does not support the status quo in Iraq. Not one person who demonstrated in Australia last weekend would argue against the absolute necessity of removing Saddam from power, nor the necessity of ensuring Iraq does not have WMD. The anti-war movement simply believes that the world can and should achieve these ends without killing hundreds of thousands of innocent people. That’s all there is to it! We want Saddam out as much as you do – we’re just not prepared to go to the same violent lengths as you are to achieve it.

4. It is illogical to argue that anti-war protesters should be condemned for not marching against injustices perpetrated by other countries. Why would we protest against Saddam Hussein? We live in Australia for crying out loud – we protest against things that we’re doing – not stuff that other people are doing!! It is completely nonsensical to argue that we have no right to protest against our Government’s actions because we don’t protest other Governments’ actions.

5. Yours is NOT the only way. You seem to believe that by not supporting your war the anti-war movement is condemning the people of Iraq to a lifetime of brutality and oppression – as if there are absolutely no other options available. Doesn’t your very argument depend on this premise? That war is the ONLY solution to the problems faced by the people of Iraq?

No doubt John would be convinced that it is in fact me who is in denial. That all the arguments set out above merely serve to re-enforce the fact that I have allowed my inner dove to cloud my reasoning, or alternatively that only he is able to really understand the reality behind my viewpoint. Certainly if this gets published I expect a 20 pager from John refuting my every point with a complex and verbose web of counter-argument.

Well I’ve gotta tell you John – you don’t understand me better than I understand myself. In fact, all evidence suggests you don’t understand the vast majority of Australians at all. Come down from your intellectual ivory tower mate – unwind the spin that you’ve built around yourself – and open your eyes to the truth. You doggedly support a war that will needlessly cause the deaths of thousands of innocent men, women and children – when there are other avenues available to us.

***

 

Peter Funnell in Farrer, ACT

 

John Wojdylo has turned himself inside out this time. I march against the war in Iraq, because I don’t want any Australia citizen to go to war. This apparently is an incomplete state of mind or being and does not assist the freedom loving Iraqis. My first thought was not for the Iraqis. I did it for the citizens of the country in which I choose to live, the place of my “dreamtime”. For what it will do to those I love and care about.

I don’t want Iraqis killed anymore than Australians. I hope the Iraqis get rid of Saddam’s regime, but that’s their responsibility. I do what I can to help by not joining the fight against them. By demonstrating that I do not support a war, I point at the only way possible – for the Iraqis to do it for themselves.

I am not responsible for what Saddam might think he can achieve by exploiting my unwillingness to kill Iraqis. He will do what is necessary for his purpose. I will not meet him on ground of his choosing. I will not be an agent for the death of Iraqis and enable him to point to me and say you were prepared to kill Iraqis. I am not.

I live in Australia, I am an Australian citizen, I will speak to Australians through my simple participation in a march. That’s where I start because that is my first responsibility.

The Wojdylo spins a convoluted intellectual yarn. It quite literally disappears up its fundamental orifice. It lacks “instinct” of any kind.

I’ll stay with my instincts and the instincts of others who marched because among their many individual motives they simply don’t want Australians to go to war against Iraq. If a fascist marches alongside me, that’s all right by me on this issue. My instincts tell me that tens of thousands of ordinary people march because they are concerned we should not go to war.

It was “instinct” that motivated people. The sense that war is bloody pointless and you have to be desperate to get involved in one. Not wanting Australians to go to war and not killing Iraqis is the best I can do. I felt that was the sum total of the “people’s instinct” on this one. Simple enough. It will do me.

***

Michael Chong in Manly, Sydney

I must admit that John Wojdylo’s article was as powerful as it was sincere, and should be read by all those at the anti-war rallies. Although the article did cause me to rethink my position, I disagree with his judgement on the current anti-war movement:

“[ T]hey are the ones responsible for keeping Saddam in power, for the murder of countless Iraqis by his henchmen in the years until the fall of his regime. Whether you agree with the war or not, this is the consequence of the success of the protests’ aims. From being obliterated in the minds of “the people”, the viewpoint of the Iraqi desiring liberty is obliterated in reality.”

To begin with, I don’t believe the anti-war protests will stop the war. The war is still ON and diplomatic squabbles at the UN will not do much more than to buy a few weeks time.

More significantly, he assumes that objection to the war can be interpreted, by the process of negation, as a demand for complete disengagement by the world from the Iraq situation. It is possible that a few extreme isolationists may have been present at the rally, but, surely, these protesters, along with the Nazis, were a tiny minority amongst the thousands who have put some thought into this issue.

Most anti-war protesters know Saddam Hussein’s tyrannical hold over Iraqi people will not loosen by itself. All sides in the debate understand that the continuation of the current Iraqi regime also means the continuation of its brutality against the people. This, along with the other critical issue of Hussein’s threat to the international security, is the problem faced by everyone around the world, regardless of their ideological, political or religious differences.

The current situation meets the classical definition of a crisis, where possible solutions to the problem generate even greater webs of complex and uncertain consequences, to the extent that all those involved in the crisis become unable to move in any particular direction. In such situations there will always be one party that calls for decisive action and brands any disinclination towards such an action as a failure to address the problem.

This is precisely what the US has done. Colin Powell has repeatedly accused those who reject the military solution of running away from the problem, a predictable strategy of putting words in the mouths of opponents to manipulate the discussion into a stark division between those ‘for’ the solution and those ‘against’. We became all too familiar with this game during the Cold War. To those who accept the picture of polarised opinions presented by Powell, it is natural to assume that those “the antiwar protesters – ten million around the world – ought to have apologised to Iraqis and offered their condolences that this time they cannot support liberty in Iraq; that they have chosen to block action that would free Iraqis”.

I do not believe that the distrust against the US’s tendency to run head-first into any type of international crisis can be construed as a retreat from our responsibility to address the issue of Saddam’s dictatorship.

It is perfectly legitimate to ask whether full military engagement will achieve the result of liberating the Iraqis and reconstructing the society ravaged by the Gulf War and the sanctions, and to point out that the humanitarian justification of the coming war is only incidental to Bush’s stated objective of disarming Saddam.

Significantly, the recent protest against the war in Iraq was also the expression by the people of their disillusionment with the current strategy of militarism, as a matter of principle and of policy. Ever since the Second World War international military actions, particularly those by the US, have not achieved their stated aims of achieving the global peace. At best military solutions resulted in a stalemate of threats and, in most cases, the presence of the US Army has created cascades of reactions that haunt the world for decades.

This was one the main points most protesters were arguing for: The policy of war has repeatedly failed to achieve its objectives and has incurred unacceptable risks and costs. This says nothing about whether or not the protesters have failed to recognised the need for global security or for a just response against criminal dictators. The protesters simply did not agree that the stealth bombers and cruise missiles will have a positive impact.

What we now need from the anti-war movement is a positive contribution to a debate currently locked inside the polemic cages of the war-or-nothing scenario. People want a third solution, a fourth one or maybe a fifth, so that we don’t end up in a position where we are fighting another war that kills the people we might have been able to save.

We resent this stalemate hostage negotiating position where you must choose either the assailant or the victim. Problems of human affairs can rarely, if ever, be reduced to choosing between a yes or no answer. However, there is a serious disadvantage against the anti-war movement which has prevented its full articulation: lack of information. No one outside the US military command knows of how the war would conducted, what will happened after or whether Saddam will be deposed at all.

I also strongly disagree with John’s statement that ‘Australians have no personal experience of evil’. Apart from the Bali victims and their families and friends, there are many people in Australia today who have suffered in wars and under oppressions. The Australian soldiers’ experiences of the battles in the South Pacific are some of the worst war stories that could be told. There are Holocaust survivors, refugees from war torn Vietnam, the indigenous people who have lived under subjugation in their own land, and many more.

These Australians were not manipulated into taking anti-war stance. They know themselves what a war does. Some follow their wisdom, others are pushed by their own convictions. I don’t believe ignorance and simplemindedness is the appropriate description of the people who find war objectionable on the basis of their personal knowledge.

I do not believe that the process of negation can necessarily construe the positions of the protesters as endorsing or ignoring the continued murder of Iraqis by their government. The vast majority of the protesters would abhor the idea that the deaths at the hands of Saddam is somehow better than the deaths at the hands of a US paratrooper. But the protest was not about comparing the moral validity of the two appalling option. It was an objection against one particular course of action that this government has decided to take without providing, or even hinting at, any alternatives actions that we know exist.

There are precious few forums for serious political debates in Australia, and there aren’t many occasions where grannies and mums gather for a political reason. Given the current state of our body politic, people’s engagement in political activities must surely be encouraged, not deplored – especially when the Government is willing to interpret the people’s silence as a mandate for its actions.

Australian democracy has for far too long been starved of the nourishing milk of public discourse and the alienation of the people from their governments.

***

James Woodcock

Three bones to pick with John Wojdylo

1) John makes the same assumptions of many lets-bomb-Iraq cheerleaders. It is simplistic to label all of the 10 million who marched as all being pacifists, leftists and Anti-Americanists. Many people – including my Liberal voting mother – are unconvinced that the case for war has been made. With that debunked, a lot of his historical and philosophical arguments collapse under their own weight.

2) His pseudo-intellectual arguments are exposed when he condemns Gabriel Kolko as an apologist for Marxism and Stalinist gulags without further discussion or evidence, particularly as Kolko’s thoughtful The crisis in NATO: A geopolitical earthquake? is about NATO and has nothing to do with defending Communism. This is nothing more than name calling.

3) I agree with Wojdylo that there are some uncomfortable crossover points with the majority of Australians agreeing with the turning away of Tampa and opposing the war against Iraq. Both may in part be a symptom of growing isolationism and a shunning of the “other”. However in my many attempts to convince people to support a more humane policy for asylum seekers I have found that using cold hard facts to counter the misinformation of the government was the best way to win hearts and minds. I also found I did not get very far with mere assertions that my stance was the morally superior one. I would suggest that John Wojdylo may like to try to do the same.

PS: On the other hand I thought The intellectual holocaust in our universities has just begun was absolutely brilliant. What a complex person our John is!

***

Michael Grau-Veliz in Sydney

The pro war undertones of John’s piece were not even masked. No one likes war and the following quote by Hermann Goerring explains why:

“Why of course the people don’t want war. Why should some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common people don’t want war: neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”

I can see why John wrote what he did, and it’s a reflection of why we have gotten into this situation in the first place. The pro war movement will have you believe that the freedom is only gained by war and bloodshed. That if you want freedom you have to fight for it. That a totalitarian government can only be defeated by force. They forget to mention, however, who puts these fascist totalitarians in power in the first place, or who allows them to flourish. What have these so called “liberators” been doing for the last 12 years? Why the sudden need to get rid of Saddam – does he pose a bigger threat than he did last year or the year before that?

On the other hand the peaceniks will have you believe that war is to be avoided at all cost but offer no plausible solution. Where have these protesters been hiding for the last 12 years? Where were they when the Kurds were facing genocide? Using John’s example, where were they in the Tampa and SIEV-X incidents?

I agree with John that we have become complacent and accustomed to our peace, but so has the rest of the Western world. Every type of atrocity is OK as long as it’s not on our back yard. It is easier to turn away from the atrocities of the world then to try to find solutions for them and as long as it doesn’t affect us – who cares?

This kind of behaviour has permeated all of our society, indeed it is the basis of our economy and culture of consumerism. As bleak as this may sound, until we find an answer to curb our own selfishness and greed conflict will always exist and situations like the one we are currently facing will keep popping up.

***

Paul Walter in Adelaide

I am sorry, I do not quite see why you value this John Wojdylo so much. That is one of the silliest articles I have ever read. He is a lay-down misere for an editorial job at the “OZ”.

He obviously missed the SBS documentary on Saturday that laid down in microscopic detail the full calumny of the Republican power-grab in the 2000 US election, for instance. He can’t recognise that the US acts as a de-facto global government wreaking the same havoc on an international scale as a banana dictator does locally.

Didn’t he read about the same Republican mindset, as described in US Senator Byrd’s speech at A lonely voice in a US Senate silent on war, especially the bit about the $6 TRILLION the Republicans have apparently robbed the global economy of since coming to power? This money was needed for the global poor, not a pack of corrupt fund-managers, media magnates, organised crime figures and armaments manufacturers. The faltering US economy is revealing at this very moment the result of massive diversions of investment funds and at a more intrinsic level, confidence, because of Bush and several preceding US administrations and their blindness, greed and arrogance.

US and other Western politicians and the interests they represented put Saddam there. They are most responsible ultimately; not people who have witnessed the dirty scene and dare to pass comment on it. The people REALLY responsible are now starting to falter and to choke on their own guilt and many others will suffer for their denial unless they are honestly confronted. Saddam is the symptom, not just the disease.

The West, and the US in particular, knew what he was and what he would do, and knowing this FULL-WELL kept him there. This was particularly true in 1991, after Bush Sen. urged the Iraqi people to “rise up”, and then callously abandoned them to cop Saddam’s venom at the end of that war.

If I deliberately allow my savage dog to wander the streets and he bites someone, it’s not ultimately the dog that is responsible – I am. Is Saddam the “dog” of powerless pacifists, or the armed powers who maintained him for their own sick ends then have the cheek to publicly blame the rest of us for?

What the demonstrators are arguing for, as ever, is for an acceptance of responsibility from the Globalist Oiligarchs ultimately responsible for the mess, instead of the usual fobbing off of blame and responsibility onto everyone else.

No, John, we won’t accept the US blowing the Iraqi people back to the stone age, and then finding ways for the rest of us to pay, yet again, for THEIR mistakes!

We read of the wonderful conclusion drawn by some that because of all this complicity we then SHOULD inflict suffering on thousands of Iraqi people! To question the behaviours and underlying mentalities that have driven acts like the 2000 US election gerrymander, and numerous foreign affairs antics driven ONLY by cold-blooded self-interest, is absolutely and utterly necessary in attempting to acquire a balanced perspective concerning unfolding events.

To not to have noticed these is to pretend blindness. To ignore them is to fall into the simplistic and criminal expediency of scapegoating, to avoid admitting error, as right-wingers do with Saddam.

***

 

David Palmer in Adelaide

John Wojdylo is a sadly misinformed propagandist. Just one example is a quote from his latest: “At least one other person saw what I saw, knows what I know, thought some of my thoughts that weekend. He is Adnan Hassan (pseudonym), an Iraqi refugee living in Australia: ‘On Sunday I watched the peace activists rallying for peace without mentioning my butcher, Hussein.'”

Here are excerpts from the speech I gave at the Adelaide rally, attended by 100,000 people according to the police estimate:

We also have a message for U.S. President George W. Bush. The game is up, George. We’re sick and tired of your games and deception. We don’t believe that dropping 4,000 bombs in the first 48 hours – as the Pentagon has announced it will do when Phase 2 of its invasion begins – will liberate the people of Iraq. It will only strengthen the legend of the dictator Saddam Hussein and kill tens of thousands of innocent people. You and your government have already helped destroy the lives of almost half a million children through the UN embargo, but Saddam the dictator is still there.

Former weapons inspector Scott Ritter has told us that we should expect Saddam to lie – that the real issue is to contain him and to outwit him. Law enforcement not war is now underway to bring the criminal Bali bombers to justice. Saddam Hussein did not direct these criminals. And Osama bin-Laden does not live in Baghdad. 4000 bombs dropped on the people of Iraq in a 48 hour period will not lead to the capture and prosecution of all those who were part of the Bali bombing criminal network.

In no way did I or anyone present endorse Saddam Hussein. Just the opposite. Please explain to us, John, if the Bush administration is so intent on bringing democracy to Iraq why it has only provided $1 million of the $97 million allocated by the US Congress under the Iraqi Liberation Act of 1998? Why is the US planning to put in a military governor in Iraq for two years, against the wishes of the (US sponsored) Iraqi Opposition? And why do the Kurds to the north now fear that invading Turks – supported with US arms – will commit a new genocide against them? Is it possible that the situation is more complex than you portray it?

At the very least, you need to have a bit more confidence in democracy as something that comes from the people rather than a handful of politicians who label us misguided.

***

Peter Woodforde in Melba, ACT

John Wojdylo excelled himself. I particularly enjoyed: “As in Europe, especially Germany, where the movement is relatively strong in support of Arabs generally and Saddam Hussein in particular (this is surprising, but only on the surface), there were undoubtedly neo-nazis present in the Australian marches hoping for Saddam’s victory – meaning survival – and an American downfall.”

Come on John, who else was there? Yasser Arafat in mufti? Osama bin Laden? Martin Bormann? Alger Hiss? Julius and Ethel Rosenberg? Manning Clark with his order of Lenin? Skippy? Don’t feel restrained, JW. Give full rein to your imagination.

I take it that John Wojdylo occasionally gnaws through the leather straps and sifts this sort of chaff from the dozens of feverish, but extremely well-funded Republican Right and Likud-Irgun terrorist sites, all chiefly characterised, incidentally, by endless pushing of the virtues of ethnic cleansing in Palestine.

In fact, part of Wojdylo’s reaction to those who reject a massive Cruise missile bombardment of Baghdad – “For the people’s instinct – probably even will – is to avoid this path at all costs, avoid categorical conclusions, find ways to convince themselves that this conclusion which merely seems categorical can be safely subverted” and “Because maiming or killing at their hands is impossible to contemplate. Because they have never come to terms with the risks and sacrifices necessary for freedom – which here means that the Iraqi’s dream of liberation cannot be central in their considerations” – have clear echoes of those American and Likud terrorist extremists who ceaselessly deride the position of moderate and leftist Israelis and Americans. And occasionally kill them, too. Ask Yitzhak Rabin.

When Wojdylo rides a Cruise missile (or perhaps a Smart Bomb) into the suburbs of Baghdad, slapping his stetson, whoopin’ and hollerin’, I do hope some gallant CNN cameraman broadcasts his moral mission live to the world. We’d hate to see him miss the publicity, let alone the mathematical precision of such a flight. From hyperbole to parabola. Ride ’em cowboy! Make the world safe for dichotomy! Yee-har!

As to whether he’ll be able to keep shovelling out his personal Augean stable from the Other Side, I’m not sure.

PS: I’m extremely disappointed that Wojdylo has so far spared himself the task of linking Saddam and Robert Mugabe through a network of cricket-loving pacifists based in training camps in Pakistan, and can only hope he’s shaping up at the crease to smack their all their balls to the boundary.

The crisis in NATO: A geopolitical earthquake?

NATO is just one of the world’s power blocs under enormous strain over war on Iraq. Webdiary’s international relations expert Scott Burchill has just received an analysis of the NATO crisis his friend Gabriel Kolko, Professor Emeritus at York University, Toronto. “He is arguably the world’s most distinguished war historian, author most recently of Another Century of War? (The New Press, New York 2002) and a leading political analyst of NATO and US foreign policy,” Scott says.

Just yesterday, Tony Blair warned France and Germany that undermining the transatlantic alliance was the most dangerous game of all in world politics. John Howard, in hiding from the quality media, told talk-back radio: “If the world walks away from this, the damage to the authority of the United Nations will be incalculable, the damage to the United States will be huge.”

Professor Kolko’s piece was written just before NATO papered over the cracks and backed preparations to defend Turkey, and Turkey – faced with almost 100 percent opposition to war from its people – demanded more aid money in return for allowing a US attack on Iraq from Turkey. The wild swings in this ‘game’ never end. Turkey wants NATO to defend it from retaliation from Iraq, NATO says no, then yes, then Turkey says maybe no to the US! What is happening here? Over to Professor Kolko.

The crisis in NATO: A geopolitical earthquake?

Gabriel Kolko

The next weeks should reveal whether we are experiencing the equivalent of a geopolitical earthquake.

Washington intended that NATO, from its very inception, serve as its instrument for maintaining its political hegemony over Western Europe, forestalling the emergence of a bloc that could play an independent role in world affairs. Charles DeGaulle, Winston Churchill, and many influential politicians envisioned such an alliance less as a means of confronting the Soviet army than as a way of containing a resurgent Germany as well as balancing American power.

Publicly, the reason for creating NATO in 1949 was the alleged Soviet military menace, but the US always planned to employ strategic nuclear weapons to defeat the USSR – for which it did not need an alliance. But no one in Washington believed a war with Russia was imminent or even likely, a view that prevailed most of the time until the USSR finally disappeared.

There was also the justification of preventing the Western Europeans from being obsessed with fear at reconstructing Germany’s economy, and American military planners were concerned with internal subversion.

When the Soviet Union capsized over a decade ago, NATO’s nominal rationale for existence died with it. But the principal reason for its creation – to forestall European autonomy – remains.

For Washington, the problem of NATO is linked to the future of Germany, which since 1990 has been undecided about the extent to which it wishes to work through that organisation or, more importantly, to conform to US’ initiatives in East Europe. Germany’s unilateral recognition of Croatia in December 1991 was crucial in triggering the war in Bosnia and revealed its potentially dangerous and destabilising capacity for autonomous action. Its power over the European Monetary Union and European Union understandably causes other Europeans to fear the revival of German domination.

But for the US, the issue of Germany is also a question of the extent to which it can constrain America’s ability to play the same decisive role in Europe in the future as it has in the past. Such grand geopolitical questions have been brewing for over a decade.

NATO provided a peacekeeping force in Bosnia to enforce the agreement that ended the internecine civil war in that part of Yugoslavia, but in 1999 it ceased being a purely defensive alliance and entered the war against the Serbs on behalf of the Albanians in Kosovo. The US employed about half the aircraft it assigns for a full regional war but found the entire experience very frustrating. Targets had to be approved by all 19 members, any one of which could veto American proposals. The Pentagon’s after-action report of October 1999 conceded that America needed the cooperation of NATO countries, but “gaining consensus among 19 democratic nations is not easy and can only be achieved through discussion and compromise.”

But Wesley Clark, the American who was NATO’s supreme commander, regarded the whole experience as a nightmare – both in his relations with the Pentagon and NATO’s members. “[W]orking within the NATO alliance,” American generals complained, “unduly constrained U.S. military forces from getting the job done quickly and effectively.” A war expected to last a few days instead took 78-days. The Yugoslav war taught the Americans a grave lesson.

Long before September 11, 2001, Washington was determined to avoid the serious constraints that NATO could impose. The only question was of timing and how the United States would escape NATO’s clear obligations while maintaining its hegemony over its members. It wanted to preserve NATO for the very reason it had created it; to keep Europe from developing an independent political as well as military organisation.

Coordinating NATO’s command structure with that of any all-European military organization that may be created impinges directly on America’s power over Europe’s actions and reflects its deep ambiguity. Some of its members wanted NATO to reach a partial accord with Russia, a relationship on which Washington often shifted, but Moscow remains highly suspicious of its plans to extend its membership to Russia’s very borders.

When the new administration came to power in January 2001, NATO’s fundamental role was already being reconsidered.

President Bush is strongly unilateralist, and he repudiated the Kyoto Protocol on global warming, opposes further restrictions on nuclear weapons tests or land mines, and is against a host of other existing and projected accords. He also greatly accelerated the development of Anti-Ballistic Missile system, which will ostensibly give the U.S. a first-strike capacity and which China and Russia justifiably regard as destabilising – thereby threatening to renew the nuclear arms race.

Downgrading the United Nations, needless to say, was axiomatic.

The war in Afghanistan was fought without NATO but on the US’ terms by a “floating” coalition “of the willing,” a model for future conflicts “that will evolve and change over time depending on the activity and circumstances of the country”. It accepted the small German, French, Italian, and other contingents that were offered only after it became clear that the war, and especially its aftermath, would take considerably longer than the Pentagon expected. But it did not consult them on military matters or crucial political questions.

Washington has decided that its allies must now accept its objectives and work solely on its terms, and it has no intention whatsoever of discussing the merits of its actions in NATO conferences. This applies, above all, to the imminent war against Iraq – a war of choice.

This de facto abandonment of NATO as a military organisation was made explicit during 2002 when Washington proposed a simultaneous enlargement of its membership to include the Baltic states and to allow Russia to have a voice, but no veto, on important matters. The nations along Russia’s borders regard NATO purely as protection against Russia, and are therefore eager to please the US – which wants no constraints on its potential military actions.

The crisis in NATO was both overdue and inevitable, the result of a decisive American reorientation, and the time and ostensible reason for it was far less important than the underlying reason it occurred: The US’ growing realisation after the early 1990s that while the organisation was militarily a growing liability it remained a political asset.

That the United Nations and Security Council are today also being strained in ways too early to estimate is far less important because the U.S. never assigned the UN the same crucial role as it did its alliance in Europe.

Today, NATO’s original raison detre of imposing American hegemony is now the core of the controversy that is now raging. Washington cannot sustain this grandiose objective because a reunited Germany is far too powerful to be treated as it was a half-century ago, and Germany has its own interests in the Middle East and Asia to protect.

Germany and France’s independence is reinforced by inept American propaganda on the relationship of Iraq to Al-Qaeda (from which the CIA and British MI6 have openly distanced themselves), overwhelming antiwar public opinion in many nations, and a great deal of opposition within the US establishment and many senior military men to a war with Iraq.

The furious American response to Germany, France, and Belgium’s refusal, under article 4 of the NATO treaty, to protect Turkey from an Iraqi counterattack because that would prejudge the Security Council’s decision on war and peace is only a contrived reason for confronting fundamental issues that have simmered for many years.

The dispute was far more about symbolism than substance, and the point has been made: Some NATO members refuse to allow the organisation to serve as a rubber stamp for American policy, whatever it may be.

Turkey’s problem is simple: The US is pressuring it, despite overwhelmingly antiwar Turkish public and political opinion, to allow American troops to invade Iraq from Turkey and to enter the war on its side. The US wants NATO to aid Turkey in order to strengthen the Ankara government’s resolve to ignore overwhelmingly antiwar domestic opinion, for the arms it is to receive are superfluous.

But the Turks are far more concerned with Kurdish separatism in Iraq rekindling the civil war that Kurds have fought in Turkey for much of the past decade, and the conditions they are demanding on these issues have put Washington in a very difficult position from which – as of this writing – it has not extricated itself. Turkey’s best – and most obvious – defense is to stay out of the war, which the vast majority of Turks want. It may end up doing so.

America still desires to regain the mastery over Europe it had during the peak of the Cold War but it is also determined not to be bound by European desires – r indeed by the overwhelming European public opposition to a war with Iraq. Genuine dialogue or consultation with its NATO allies is out of the question. The Bush Administration, even more than its predecessors, simply does not believe in it – nor will it accept NATO’s formal veto structure; NATO’s division on Turkey has nothing to do with it.

Washington cannot have it both ways. Its commitment to aggressive unilateralism is the antithesis of an alliance system that involves real consultation. France and Germany are now far too powerful to be treated as obsequious dependents. They also believe in sovereignty, as does every nation which is strong enough to exercise it, and they are now able to insist that the United States both listen to and take their views seriously. It was precisely this danger that the U.S. sought to forestall when it created NATO over 50 years ago.

The controversy over NATO’s future has been exacerbated by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s attacks on “Old Europe” and the disdain for Germany and France that he and his adviser, Richard Perle, have repeated, but these are but a reflection of the underlying problems that have been smoldering for years.

Together, the nations that oppose a preemptive American war in Iraq and the Middle East – an open-ended, destabilizing adventure that is likely to last years – can influence Europe’s future development and role in the world profoundly. If Russia cooperates with them, even only occasionally, they will be much more powerful, and President Putin’s support for their position on the war makes that a real possibility.

Eastern European nations may say what Washington wishes today, but economically they are far more dependent on Germany and those allied with it. When the 15 nations in European Union met on February 17 their statement on Iraq was far closer to the German-French position than the American, reflecting the antiwar nations’ economic clout as well as the response of some prowar political leaders to the massive antiwar demonstrations that took place the preceding weekend in Italy, Spain, Britain and the rest of Europe.

There is every likelihood that the U.S. will emerge from this crisis in NATO more belligerent, and more isolated and detested, than ever. NATO will then go the way of SEATO and all of the other defunct American alliances.

The reality is that the world is increasingly multipolar, economically and technologically, and that the US’ desire to maintain absolute military superiority over the world is a chimera. Russia remains a military superpower, China is becoming one, and the proliferation of destructive weaponry should have been confronted and stopped 20 years ago.

The US has no alternative but to accept the world as it is, or prepare for doomsday. The conflict in NATO, essentially, reflects this diffusion of all forms of power and the diminution of American hegemony, which remains far more a dream than a reality.